This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 104 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 104 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 68-25-1 ~ Dog Picks 16-4-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Priscila Cachoeira +170 ~ 6-1-1 +715
DFS Lock of the Week: Kevin Vallejos - 7-0
Fanduel Captain: Vallejos/Vettori
Yuneisy Duben (6-0-0) v. Carli Judice (3-2-0)
Yuneisy Duben - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Carli Judice - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Plus volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 3 wins
DFS Perspective: Duben is making her UFC debut after a brilliant 73-second knockout in her Contender Series debut. Although she has finished all her fights and looked solid in that Contender Series fight, I'm hesitant to side with her, as most opponents were 0-0. On the other side, Judice lost her debut but looked excellent and arguably won it. She has lost consecutive fights by split decision but is one of the more active fighters in the ring. It's a tough call, but I like how Judice looked and do not expect her to get finished by Duben. The winner of this fight could be a GPP surprise for DFS.
UFC Vegas 104: Judice
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Josiane Nunes (10-3-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (12-6-0)
Josiane Nunes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Priscila Cachoeira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that could surprise in DFS, as both ladies feature good power and a willingness to brawl. They each come in on consecutive losses, but Cachoeira's were against much better competition. Furthermore, her size and slight power advantage lead me to believe she should be the favorite. Getting her at plus money is excellent.
UFC Vegas 104: Cachoeira
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Daniel Barez (17-6-0) v. Andre Lima (10-0-0)
Daniel Barez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
Andre Lima - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not have much faith in either of these fighters. Lima is 10-0, but I find nothing impressive about his UFC wins. Barez earned his first UFC win last time out after a submission loss in his debut. This fight will likely remain close throughout its duration, and an early stoppage is not expected. Lima has the tools to outwork Barez and should get his hand raised.
UFC Vegas 104: Lima
Stephanie Luciano (6-1-1) v. Sam Hughes (9-6-0)
Stephanie Luciano - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Sam Hughes will always put forth her best effort and fight for your money. She is a live dog, but I would put Luciano's skill set a bit ahead of her own. Luciano should be able to dictate where this fight goes and should only need to avoid being put on her back to win. I would not expect a high DFS score from this fight.
UFC Vegas 104: Luciano
Carlos Vera (11-4-0) v. Josias Musasa (8-0-0)
Carlos Vera - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Josias Musasa - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Musasa is far too big of a favorite after scraping by his Contender Series win. He is an exceptional fighter and should win this, but the 6-1 odds are a little steep for a debut. We saw little of Vera after he was dismantled in his debut. I expect we will see more of his striking in this one, but I'm not sure he can do enough without an early stoppage to get this one done. This fight is better suited for GPP.
UFC Vegas 104: Musasa
Su Young You (14-3-0) v. AJ Cunningham 11-4-0)
Su Young You - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
AJ Cunningham - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: I like Cunningham as a fighter and think there is potential there. However, You should be too much for him. A third knockout loss in a row is conceivable, but I expect You to mix in takedowns and control time as well. He is a solid play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 104: You
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (12-1-0) v. Ryan Spann (22-10-0)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
Ryan Spann - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be Spann's first fight as a heavyweight in the UFC. It will be curious to see where he weighs in and how much the division change will affect him. Because of this, he is a GPP dart throw only. Cortes-Acosta is boring as far as heavyweights go but would likely have a dominant fight if he shoots for takedowns. There are too many question marks to feel confident in this fight, but Cortes-Acosta is the play.
UFC Vegas 104: Cortes-Acosta
Seungwoo Choi (11-7-0) v. Kevin Vallejos (14-1-0)
Seungwoo Choi - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Kevin Vallejos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Choi has lost four of his last five and offers little for DFS. He will always have a puncher's chance, but I would not expect much from him here. Vallejos, on the other hand, is a young rising prospect with a well-rounded game. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate and should be solid for all contests. I expect his ownership to be high against Choi, but still worth it.
UFC Vegas 104: Vallejos
Diyar Nurgozhay (10-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0)
Diyar Nurgozhay - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Brendson Ribeiro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Ribeiro improved to 1-2 in the UFC after a controversial split decision win last time out. Nurgozhay will be making his UFC debut and is looking to make a statement and keep his 0. He is the better overall fighter, and he should win this. However, I do not foresee a high DFS score without a finish within the first two rounds.
UFC Vegas 104: Nurgozhay
Da'Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) v. Cody Gibson 22-10-0)
Da'Mon Blackshear - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
Cody Gibson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: After enduring two tough losses, Blackshear returned to the win column with a beautiful first-round submission in his last fight. He looked excellent and will have a great chance to repeat it against Gibson. Gibson has won back-to-back fights to move himself to 3-5 in the UFC, but he will need to be even more significant if he wants to make it three. This should come down to the striking of Gibson or the grappling of Blackshear. Given that Gibson does not have the best takedown defense, I expect Blackshear to get this down early and often. A second consecutive submission is a definite possibility.
UFC Vegas 104: Blackshear
Alexander Hernandez (15-8-0) v. Kurt Holobaugh (22-8-0)
Alexander Hernandez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
Kurt Holobaugh - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight could honestly go either way. Hernandez is known to have terrible cardio, and Holobaugh has just been awful in the UFC. Hernandez should have the edge on the feet and the takedown defense to stuff attempts for as long as his cardio holds. However, I would get shares of both in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 104: Hernandez
Chidi Njokuani (24-10-0) v. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (25-8-1)
Chidi Njokuani - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 24 wins
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that genuinely could go either way. I do not anticipate much groundwork, leaving ample time for someone to record a knockout. Chidi can be a technician and land clean shots, but dos Santos has more power and is more likely to apply forward pressure. Njokuani has also been knocked out five times to dos Santos's one.
UFC Vegas 104: Dos Santos
Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) v. Roman Dolidze (14-3-0)
Marvin Vettori - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Dolidze has won two in a row, but I expect that to end there. These two fought in March 2023, when Vettori edged Dolidze in volume, and I expect it to go much the same. Vettori could make it even easier if he takes this to the mat. Five rounds between these two should produce a solid score for DFS, and it would be wise to get shares of both.
UFC Vegas 104: Vettori
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
