UFC Vegas 104 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
While the main card may not look like much in terms of divisional stakes, the 13-fight slate from the Apex features plenty of intriguing matchups. We'll break down every bout across three platforms, including a toolsy underachiever making his debut at heavyweight and two bets that have plenty juice. As always, those plays come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Ryan Spann ($7,900)
I love the move up to heavyweight for Spann. "Superman" was always a big light heavyweight and should be able to use his speed and agility to maximum effect in the organization's heaviest weight class. He gets a particularly forgiving first test in Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who has only finished five of his 12 wins by knockout and will be on the wrong side of the grappling edge equation here. As long as there are no hiccups with the adjustment, Spann should pick up a win in impressive fashion.
Diyar Nurgozhay ($8,900)
Nurgozhay will give up a whopping seven inches of reach to Brendson Ribeiro, but the Brazilian fighter has such a hard time cutting off the cage that I don't expect him to utilize this advantage. Instead, the debutante should be able to pull his opponent into reactive takedown attempts and counter shots by using lateral movement. While Nurgozhay is far from a perfect fighter, Ribiero is too sloppy to capitalize on his occasional laziness in the pocket.
Kurt Holobaugh ($7,600)
Holobaugh makes my list of perennially underrated fighters. While he likely won't contend for a title any time soon, "The Hurt" can throw powerful combinations and wrestle effectively, all while pressuring his opponent. Alexander Hernandez can also throw with power, but he will fight with a pace he ultimately cannot keep, allowing opponents to get the upper hand late. I expect Holobaugh to be the stronger man in this matchup, which should help neutralize takedown attempts from "The Great."
Sam Hughes ($7,400)
Hughes is nothing if not scrappy, using high-volume striking and physicality to pick up wins in the Octagon. Stephanie Luciano's upright posture and lack of consistent footwork should be her undoing in this one, allowing Hughes to get on the inside for takedowns and score with offense while at range. While she improved her takedown defense massively in her second fight with Talita Alencar, I'm banking on the more experienced fighter to make the cage feel small and not allow Luciano to use her agility.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos ($8,400)
You may not expect a fighter with the nickname "Capoeira" to don wrestling shoes too often, but the Brazilian understands the assignment when at a significant reach disadvantage. We can see this in his loss to Randy Brown, in which he notched four takedowns, and his win over Curtis Millender, where he scored a quick takedown and submission in Round 1. While he does have a solid takedown defense rate, Chidi Njokuani does not face committed wrestlers often enough to trust that he will be ready to fend off a committed attack. It should also be noted that Zaleski will be the quicker party with the superior gas tank if the fight extends to the later rounds.
Da'Mon Blackshear ($9,200)
Blackshear has a habit of holding his own against credentialed grapplers, as he submitted Cody Stamann in November and scored a takedown while notching 3:38 of control time in a 2023 loss to Javid Basharat. Blackshear is faster, more powerful, and stronger than Cody Gibson. When we consider that he can handle himself on the mat, "The Monster" looks like a comfortable option in all formats.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Carli Judice Under 103.5 Significant Strikes, Josiane Nunes UNDER 73.5 Significant Strikes, and Marvin Vettori UNDER 110.5 Significant Strikes
Something has to give for Judice, who is 0-2 in UFC (and UFC-adjacent) fights despite landing a combined 337 significant strikes in those two matchups. We will likely see more time spent in the pocket or more grappling from Judice here, as Yuneisy Duben is a deliberate and powerful striker who stays flat-footed in the pocket. Whichever road she takes, I would be surprised to see another by-the-numbers, high-volume performance for Judice.
I'm having difficulty understanding why the lines are so high in Nunes' bout with Priscila Cachoeira, as both women stand in the pocket and throw with abandon. Nunes' lack of finishes likely stems from the fact that her opponents try to escape from range, but both ladies will get the brawl they want here.
Vettori is another high-volume boxer, but I imagine that Roman Dolidze will have learned from their last bout that trying to throw big, single strikes against a faster, more active fighter is not a recipe for success. We saw how well he did when wrestling with Kevin Holland early, and Dolidze will be the superior grappler in this matchup.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Su Young You OVER 11 Minutes of Fight Time, and Kevin Vallejos UNDER 8.5 Minutes of Fight Time
AJ Cunningham may have been sparked out in his debut against L'udovit Klein, but You is nowhere near as powerful or explosive, opting instead to stick-and-move while looking for takedowns. As will often be the case, Cunningham will be the slower man here, which should allow You to dictate where the fight takes place.
8.5 minutes feels like an awful lot of time to give two men who have finished 18 out of 25 combined wins. Seungwoo Choi is the more likely grappler here, but he prefers to throw himself in the pocket, looking for strikes. Meanwhile, Kevin Vallejos pressures and alternates to the body and head with such ferocity that it shouldn't be long before one of these fighters is on the canvas.
Bets to Consider
Andre Lima Wins via KO/TKO (+325)
Daniel Barez's two UFC fights have been action-packed, with either fighter looking like they could be finished multiple times. This is likely because, for all of his dynamic offense, Barez is far too comfortable walking into range with his hands down. This seems like a bad strategy against Lima, who plants his feet and looks to intercept opponents with countershots. Barez will almost certainly try to force exchanges in the pocket, which is the perfect opportunity for Lima to get his first finish in the Octagon.
Carlos Vera Wins via Submission (+1200)
You won't need to watch Vera very long before figuring out that he is a training partner of Ryan Hall. "Pequeno" stays light on his feet and throws kicks with the intention of either diving for a leg or falling to his back and creating a scramble. Josias Musasa is a powerful striker, but I'm willing to bet he's never faced a fighter like Vera, who is going to make the taller fighter uncomfortable as he grabs for his legs. I can't stress enough that this is a speculative play based on fight dynamics, which include the possibility that Vera just gets stuck on his back, leading to a lackluster decision for Musasa. It certainly isn't the safe option, but those with some spare change lying around might do well to take a chance on an experienced grappler against a relative newbie.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 104 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
