UFC Vegas 102 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC returns with a 13-fight card full of interesting matchups from which we can potentially profit. We'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a "hulking" wrestler, and a grappler who is marked at long odds to do what he does best. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jacqueline Cavalcanti ($9,400)
Calvalcanti has never landed a takedown in her three UFC fights, but an aging Miesha Tate ran through Julia Avila so effortlessly that it would be wise to take the path of least resistance. While she is a tough and aggressive striker, Avila should be at a strength disadvantage here, and Cavalcanti has shown the ability to handle herself in clinch situations.
Jared Gordon ($9,200)
This looks like a matchup made for Gordon, as newcomer Mashrabjon Ruziboev puts everything he has into his overhand rights, allowing the veteran ample opportunity to hit reactive takedowns or counter with his own power shots. Ruziboev will also employ a wrestling attack, but Gordon should be far too crafty for his erratic counterpart.
Dylan Budka ($7,000)
Edmen Shahbazyan's six UFC losses are enough to convince me that he should not be a large favorite against any wrestler. Budka gassed out while chasing takedowns too hard in his UFC debut, but Shahbazyan has his own problems with cardio, and his inability to get up from bottom position should help "Mindless Hulk" better manage his energy. This is a fade on Shaybazyan more than an endorsement of Budka, but I can't look past this price due to "The Golden Boy's" past struggles.
Jose Miguel Delgado ($9,000)
Delgado and Connor Matthews are both graduates of the Contender Series. While Delgado scored a knockdown and three takedowns in his victory, Matthews was taken down six times by Francis Marshall in his first bite at the apple in 2022. He did redeem himself with a seven-takedown performance in 2023, but the fact that "The Controller" was handled by a UFC-caliber opponent doesn't bode well for his prospects going forward.
Andre Petroski ($7,400)
Our dog play here is based on the fact that Petroski is exceptionally difficult to take down, and we have seen Rodolfo Vieira have trouble with his cardio in past fights. As dominant as he can be under the right conditions, the Brazilian has always looked unsteady when forced to extend himself, and Petroski should be able to make him work for every position he gets.
Youssef Zalal ($9,400)
Zalal generally incorporates wrestling into his attack, but the emphasis should be much greater against Calvin Kattar, who remains a crisp boxer with fast hands seven years into his UFC tenure. "The Moroccan Devil" is physically strong for the weight class, and we are less than a year removed from Kattar's fight against another strong grappler in Aljamain Sterling, who grounded him eight times.
Nazim Sadykhov ($7,800)
Ismael Bonfim is a powerful and athletic kickboxer but there are enough holes in his game to justify the dog play here. The first thing to note is the upright stance, which has seen him taken down three times in his last two fights. We also have evidence that he doesn't respond well to aggression, as Vinc Pichel did well in Round 1 before slowing down and dropping a decision in May. Sadykhov is a good technical fighter with some pop in his hands and the ability to execute a power wrestling game, for which I don't expect Bonfim to have an answer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Angela Hill OVER 79.5 Significant Strikes, and Vince Morales UNDER 59.5 Significant Strikes
Unless Hill is facing a smothering grappler, it's a good bet that she will hit her mark on most nights, as she averages a blistering 5.46 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon. While Ketlen Souza can grapple, she is far too willing to have a striking match, and her slow-footedness should result in plenty of volume for the agile veteran.
Morales' first UFC stint was plagued by inactivity inside the cage, and this did not change in his return bout against Taylor Lapilus, as "Vandetta" landed just 39 significant strikes over three rounds. In Elijah Smith, Morales faces a quicker, more explosive opponent who can also wrestle, which leaves room to wonder how he will find his offense.
Plays to consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Rafael Estevam OVER 11 Minutes of Fight Time and Gregory Rodrigues OVER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time
It's almost a foregone conclusion that Aguilar and Rafael Estevam will have a grappling match, and the fact that only two finishes are found among their 23 combined fights makes me think that we are likely seeing a decision here. It is often the case that a bout between two men looking to wrestle turns into a slow-paced kickboxing match, which should work to bleed time off the clock.
The four-inch height advantage Rodrigues has over Jared Cannonier should work in our favor, as "The Killa Gorilla" will likely remain cautious as he looks for openings from the outside. "Robocop" may turn to his wrestling as a result, but Cannonier has never been submitted in his career, so I trust him to keep himself safe if he ends up in bottom position.
Bets to Consider
Valter Walker Wins via Submission (+430)
I was forced to do several takes to confirm this number, as Walker is a submission grappler who never stops trying to take the fight to the ground, and Don'Tale Mayes has the dubious honor of having lost to Ciryl Gane via heel hook. His lack of submission losses can likely be chalked up to the fact that there aren't many submission threats at heavyweight, as Mayes has shown us that he can be grounded when his footwork breaks down.
Khaos Williams Wins via KO/TKO (+320)
While I do hold Gabriel Bonfim in a bit higher regard than Ismael, he may be more vulnerable, as he tends to stand right in front of his opponents, banking on athleticism to act as a defense. I don't expect this strategy to hold against Williams, who may hit harder than any man in the division, and has hand speed to keep up with "Marretinha." He should also be able to weather Bonfim's wrestling attack, as evidenced by his 80 percent takedown defense rate.
