This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 102 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 102 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 35-15-1 ~ Dog Picks 8-2-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Angela Hill -110 ~ 3-0-1 +359
DFS Lock of the Week: Edmen Shahbazyan - 3-0
Fanduel Captain: Shahbazyan
Julia Avila (9-3-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (8-1-0)
Julia Avila - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Jacqueline Cavalcanti - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be submission-or-bust for Avila, and she will have a tough time getting Cavalcanti down to the mat. I expect Cavalcanti to dominate this fight on the feet and would not be surprised to see her score high due to her volume.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Cavalcanti
Don'Tale Mayes (11-7-0) v. Valter Walker (12-1-0)
Don'Tale Mayes - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Valter Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Knockouts are always a major possibility with heavyweights, but I expect this one to feature more wrestling than usual. Mayes is likely the better striker of the two. However, I expect Walker to take advantage of Mayes's sub-60 percent takedown defense. Mayes has never shown the best ability to get up, so control time will likely add up quickly. Neither is really a guy to trust for DFS, but if there are enough takedowns or an early knockout, we could see a score worthy of the optimal.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Walker
Vince Morales (16-8-0) v. Elijah Smith (7-1-0)
Vince Morales - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Elijah Smith - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: One guy is making his UFC debut, while the other could see the end of his second UFC tenure. Morales was dreadful in his first UFC stint and got released, but made his way back after several wins in other promotions, only to lose his first fight back. His task against the newcomer Smith will not be easy, either. Molares can be a dangerous finisher, but I expect Smith to have little issue taking over this fight. I would not be surprised to see him end this early and score well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Smith
Gabriel Bonfim (16-1-0) v. Khaos Williams (15-3-0)
Gabriel Bonfim - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 16 wins
Khaos Williams - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: I view this fight purely as GPP. Bonfin's one loss came against a striker, and it was a distasteful loss. Khaos does not go down easily, and if this becomes a striking match, it becomes much closer. Bonfim would likely dominate any exchanges on the mat, and a submission is very possible. However, only one fighter has managed to take him down and that was back in 2020. Bonfim is the play, but having shares of Khaos would be wise.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Bonfim
Rafael Estevam (12-0-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (11-2-0)
Rafael Estevam - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Jesus Aguilar - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a matchup I will be targeting little for DFS. I expect some of their grappling to cancel out, and neither has great striking. Aguilar has had no good wins during his UFC tenure. Estevam had a solid matchup for his debut last fight and won, though it was a close split decision. However, he might find more success in this fight against a lower-level opponent. I do not see Estevam losing his zero in this matchup.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Estevam
Jared Gordon (20-7-0) v. Mashrabjon Ruziboev (20-4-1)
Jared Gordon - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 20 wins
Mashrabjon Ruziboev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Looking at records, you might think these two are evenly matched or close to it. However, the competition Gordon has faced is far superior. In fact, nearly all of Ruziboev's wins are against trash cans. Gordon is now 36, and a decline is sure to come soon, but I do not think it will be this fight. He will undoubtedly need to be careful, but he should pull through.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Gordon
Angela Hill (17-14-0) v. Ketlen Souza (15-4-0)
Angela Hill - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 17 wins
Ketlen Souza - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Souza surprised with a dominant win as a massive underdog in her last fight. However, a little luck played into the knockdown and submission. Hill presents a challenging opponent for Souza. She does not get taken down easily and has never been knocked out. Furthermore, I expect her to be the better striker in this matchup. I do not see this fight scoring particularly well for DFS, and it is better left to GPPs.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Hill
Connor Matthews (7-2-0) v. Jose Delgado (8-1-0)
Connor Matthews - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Jose Miguel Delgado - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a great fight to target for GPP contests, as someone is likely to get finished. Matthews lost his UFC debut, getting knocked out early in the third round, and was 1-1 on the Contender Series. Delgado dominated his Contender Series fight and is now making his UFC debut. Both guys have talent and well-rounded games, but Delgado looks to be the better of the two. I like Delgado to get this done and is likely to be popular in DFS.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Delgado
Rodolfo Vieira (10-2-0) v. Andre Petroski (12-4-0)
Rodolfo Vieira - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Andre Petroski - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an interesting fight for DFS. Both guys are capable of putting up massive scores due to their ground games. Vieira has never been taken down in the UFC, but the question is, is it due to lack of attempts or his constant takedown attempts? Petroski is competent on the mat, but it would be wise to keep this upright and go for the knockout. This fight could go either way. However, I will side with the dog.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Petroski
Ismael Bonfim (20-4-0) v. Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-1)
Ismael Bonfim - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
Nazim Sadykhov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be another close fight, as indicated by the fight odds (-145, +120). They both have solid wins and an excellent overall body of work. The difference in this fight will likely come down to who lands the cleaner strikes. The grappling is likely very close, so I expect strikes to come in bunches. If there is no finish, I do not see a high score coming from these two. I expect Bonfim to be better everywhere and get the job done.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Bonfim
Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0) v. Dylan Budka (7-4-0)
Edmen Shahbazyan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Dylan Budka - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This is curious matchmaking by the UFC. Budka is 0-2 in the UFC against much lower-level competition, while Shahbazyan has fought some of the top fighters in the division. Shahbazyan should have no issue winning this fight, and I would not be surprised to see him end it within the first two rounds.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Shahbazyan
Calvin Kattar (23-8-0) v. Youssef Zalal (16-5-1)
Calvin Kattar - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
Youssef Zalal - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: I am not willing to write Kattar off entirely yet, though he definitely has lost a step. If he is to win this fight, he will need to stay on the feet and get his combos flowing. That said, he was ambushed and destroyed by grappling in his last fight, and Zalal will likely employ the same game plan. If he does not, I would take Kattar in a heartbeat, as he should still be the better striker. This would be a good fight to target both sides for GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Zalal
Jared Cannonier (17-8-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (16-5-0)
Jared Cannonier - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 77" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Gregory Rodrigues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: We have likely seen the end of Cannonier, and his walking papers will be coming very soon. In his last two fights, he has looked like he has lost two steps, and this matchup against Rodrigues is not a great one for him. Rodrigues can strike with the best of them, but his grappling should make the difference in this fight. The only concern would be that he has not gone five rounds before. However, we have not seen any cardio issues with him. Lock Rodrigues into all contests.
UFC Vegas 102 Pick: Rodrigues
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
