This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Seattle Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's Seattle card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 45-17-1 ~ Dog Picks 10-2-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Andre Fili +100 ~ 4-0-1 +450
DFS Lock of the Week: Anthony Hernandez - 4-0
Fanduel Captain: Hernandez/Aslan
Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0) v. Raffael Cerqueira (11-1-0)
Modestas Bukauskas - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
Raffael Cerqueira - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is not a fight I am ultra excited about. Bukauskas tends to be a slow-paced fighter with poor scores in DFS wins. Cerqueira is making his second UFC fight after only lasting 51 seconds in his debut. He is still a dangerous fighter, but most of his wins are against weak competition. As it stands now, Cerqueira is not UFC caliber, making Bukauskas the play.
UFC Seattle Pick: Bukauskas
Nursulton Ruziboev (34-9-3) v. Eric McConico (9-2-1)
Nursulton Ruziboev - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 32 finishes in 34 wins
Eric McConico - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I am unsure how McConico is getting this debut fight. There is nothing special about him, and he does not have any meaningful wins. This is one of those fights where if Ruziboev loses, something crazy happened. Ruziboev is an excellent play for all contests.
UFC Seattle Pick: Ruziboev
Ricky Simon (20-6-0) v. Javid Basharat (14-1-0)
Ricky Simon - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
Javid Basharat - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight has me most torn on the slate. The majority is on Basharat for his impressive beginning to his UFC tenure, although he lost a close one last time out. On the other hand, Simon has lost three straight, having been considerably outstruck in all three. He will not have to face that striking in this matchup, which leads me to believe his odds of winning should be higher. Basharat has made a career of smothering people on the mat. Simon also has excellent wrestling and will almost certainly be the fighter pushing the pace and activity. Basharat will be popular, but I like the dog in this matchup.
UFC Seattle Pick: Simon
Mansur Abdul-Malik (7-0-0) v. Nick Klein (6-1-0)
Mansur Abdul-Malik - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
Nick Klein - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a fight Abdul-Malik should win. He has a massive edge on the feet and is by far and away the better fighter. However, Klein is an excellent grappler and should not be counted out entirely. He is live for a submission if this hits the mat. I expect Abdul-Malik to get this done, and likely by knockout.
UFC Seattle Pick: Abdul-Malik
Andre Fili (24-11-0) v. Melquizael Costa (21-7-0)
Andre Fili - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Costa was cruising to his third UFC loss until he turned it around and earned a submission win midway through the third round. He has not shown me enough to make me think he can beat someone of Fili's caliber. Fili has alternated wins and losses over his last six fights, losing to higher-ranked fighters and beating the guys under him. He might have a slight disadvantage on the mat, but will have a considerable edge on the feet. He has not been submitted since 2015, and it has only happened twice in 35 fights. I like Fili to get the job done.
UFC Seattle Pick: Fili
Ion Cutelaba (18-10-1) v. Ibo Aslan (14-1-0)
Ion Cutelaba - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 18 wins
Ibo Aslan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This is the next stepping stone to promote Aslan's rise in the division. He is 2-0 in the UFC, winning both by knockout, and has now secured a knockout in all 14 of his wins. Cutelaba is going in the opposite direction with his career. Although he did win last time out, it was against low-level competition, and he has still lost four of his previous six fights. His best path to victory is to get this to the mat early and often to avoid Aslan's power. It is worth a play in GPP contests, but Aslan is the easy pick.
UFC Seattle Pick: Aslan
Alonzo Menifield (15-5-1) v. Julius Walker (6-0-0)
Alonzo Menifield - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Julius Walker - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Menifield has dropped consecutive fights by knockout, and things are starting to look a bit bleak for the 37-year-old fighter. If his chin is truly gone, this could turn into a third straight knockout. However, he draws the debuting Walker, who will have much less experience. He has incredible power, but he has not fought any worthwhile competition. This will either be a way for Menifield to get back on track or to jumpstart Walker's UFC career. Getting to both sides of this fight will be important. Walker likely scores higher in a win than Menifield, but I like Menifield's experience to carry him here.
UFC Seattle Pick: Menifield
Jean Silva (14-2-0) v. Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-2-0)
Jean Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
Melsik Baghdasaryan - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I am not sure why this matchup was made, but this should be a relatively easy win for Silva. Baghdasaryan lives to strike, and while his striking is impressive, his defense and ground game are not. Silva should have no issue getting this to the mat and potentially submitting him.
UFC Seattle Pick: Silva
Rob Font (21-8-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (16-0-0)
Rob Font - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 21 wins
Jean Matsumoto - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a massive step up for Matsumoto, and if he does not bring his wrestling shoes, he is nearly guaranteed to get pieced up as Font is the better striker. Font has struggled heavily when put on his back, and I do not expect his defense to have improved enough for this fight. I expect Matsumoto to find success with his wrestling and get the job done, but will certainly have shares of Font.
UFC Seattle Pick: Matsumoto
Brendan Allen (24-6-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (13-2-0)
Brendan Allen - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 24 wins
Anthony Hernandez - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight projects to be a fantastic matchup. Allen has made incredible strides, having won seven in a row before losing his streak in a unanimous decision last time out. On the other hand, Hernandez won his sixth in a row, which might have been his most impressive win to date. He looked nearly unstoppable, and unless Allen can throw Hernandez off his gameplan, he will destroy him. Hernandez is one of the best plays on the slate, and I would not be surprised to see ownership north of 40 percent.
UFC Seattle Pick: Hernandez
Henry Cejudo (16-4-0) v. Song Yadong (21-7-1)
Henry Cejudo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 16 wins
Yadong Song - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Cejudo is 0-2 since making his return, although he lost to two grapple-heavy opponents. He is best used in GPP contests until we see more from him. Yadong seems to beat everyone who is not a top-five fighter in the division. He has very crisp striking that likely leads him to the win in this fight. However, he also has a sneaky good ground game, and I would not be surprised to see him use it here, given how bad Cejudo has looked in his last two fights. This fight is five rounds, and the winner will surely pay off big in DFS.
UFC Seattle Pick: Yadong
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
