UFC Mexico City Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
Saturday's slate from Mexico City includes 13 more fights from which we can potentially profit. We'll break down each fight across three platforms, including an underdog who always brings the fight to her opponent, and a knockout artist looking to bounce back from a poor performance. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Austin Hubbard ($7,500)
Hubbard's ability to do a bit of everything in the cage should pay dividends against Marquel Mederos, who is far too open defensively. This will allow "Thud" to score with his boxing combinations while using his footwork to keep the fight at range. If Mederos is able to force grappling situations, I trust Hubbard's ability to stay upright or scramble effectively when the fight hits the ground.
Julia Polastri ($7,400)
Losses to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba seem to suggest that Lupita Godinez has trouble with physically strong grapplers. She'll get no rest against Polastri, who likes to make fights as rough as possible, marching her opponents down and landing hard knees from the clinch. I don't expect Godinez to be able to deal with "Psycho" at range, making it difficult to see where her success comes from here.
Raul Rosas ($9,200)
Vince Morales fights at such a measured pace that I wouldn't be surprised to see Rosas test out his striking here. While this may hurt his point total, it also means that Rosas will be able to set the terms of the exchanges. "Vendetta" was most recently taken down three times in four attempts by Elijah Smith, so I don't anticipate any issues if Rosas chooses to stick with his wrestling.
Rafa Garcia ($9,500)
At just 25 percent, Vinc Pichel has the lowest takedown defense rate of any UFC veteran I can recall. This is particularly troublesome in a fight with Garcia, who has notched as many as seven takedowns in a three-round fight. Difficult matchups have prevented the Mexican fighter from using his wrestling lately, but he should get back to business here.
Brandon Moreno ($8,600)
Moreno may not have the aggressive grappling of Alexandre Pantoja, but he is a strong, capable wrestler with good jiujitsu from top position. He should also have a speed advantage here, which will help him counteract the methodical boxing of Steve Erceg from range. "Astroboy" found some nice early success with good fundamentals, but this is a fight that will tell us if he is indeed ready to be at the top of the division.
Jamall Emmers ($9,100)
It's hard to expect a big-swinging guard puller to find much success in the UFC in 2025. Gabriel Miranda is no exception, as Emmers has a strong wrestling base and will have significant advantages in terms of footwork and speed. This should result in "Pretty Boy" finding a finish as long as he is careful on the ground.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Kevin Borjas OVER 62.5 Significant Strikes, Joe Pyfer OVER 54.5 Significant Strikes, and Melquizael Costa OVER 54.5 Significant Strikes
Borjas has the footwork and boxing to put the paces to a fighter like Ronaldo Rodriguez, who will wade forward and look for grappling exchanges. This play will stall out if Rodriguez is able to force the clinch, but if he can keep distance, Borjas should be able to clear this total against a fighter who has yet to be finished in 19 professional fights.
Kelvin Gastelum has been an MMA Ironman, having never been knocked out in 28 professional fights. While we have seen him go to his wrestling more of late, I expect the former title contender to keep the fight standing against Pyfer, who has never been taken down more than once in a UFC bout.
Costa has thrived in recent bouts with fighters comfortable going to the ground. While Christian Rodriguez can wrestle, I expect him to close down the space against his opponent and attempt to strike in the pocket. This strategy will likely result in a kickboxing match for the better part of 15 minutes.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fantasy Score
Edgar Chairez Scores UNDER 87.5 points, Ateba Gautier Scores OVER 100.5 points, and David Martinez Scores UNDER 94.5 points.
This type of score seems high for Chairez, a straight kickboxer who doesn't do much grappling. While he does have some power, C.J. Vergara has only been knocked out once in his career and doesn't do the offensive wrestling that would be necessary for Chairez to rack up points for defense.
I expect Gautier to execute a standard first-round finish against Jose Medina, a glacially slow fighter who had success on the regional scene thanks to his persistence and power. He will be behind in almost every metric imaginable against Gautier, who will likely defend a takedown or two for good measure.
David Martinez has been an active finisher in his career, but I'm not sure if his style will translate as well at the highest level. While his leg kicks are fast and powerful, he tends to take his time at range, blitzing in with strikes. Saimon Oliveira is the exact type of fighter who won't just go away at the first sign of trouble, making this score a bit too high for my liking.
Bets to Consider
Manuel Torres Wins via KO/TKO (+210)
Torres looked uncharacteristically panicked in his loss to Ignacio Bahamondes, which I attribute to a fighter not knowing how to deal with a substantial reach disadvantage. Against Drew Dober, Torres will have height and length back in his favor, which should allow him to control the range and pick Dober off as he attempts to wildly crash in.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Mexico City for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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