14 more fights await us on the UFC Jacksonville card, including a main event featuring two top featherweights that should keep viewers on the edge of their seats. We'll take a look at every bout across four platforms, including a dedicated finisher relegated to a large underdog, and a veteran who will look to use his skill set to neutralize yet another opponent. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Cody Brundage ($8,700)
Brundage is a physically strong wrestler and boxer, but the 29-year-old showed incredibly poor fight IQ in his last bout against Rodolfo Vieira, as he had "The Back Belt Hunter" hurt along the fence before shooting for a takedown. Brundage will be able to rely on his instincts here, as Sedriques Dumas is an accomplished kickboxer. While he has shown some semblance of a ground game, he still has trouble when stuck on his back, and the Factory X product is a tireless grinder.
Brendan Allen ($9,100)
Allen is so accustomed to using his cardio and kickboxing to wear down opponents that we don't always see his suffocating ground game, but he should have his wrestling shoes this week, as Bruno Silva has recorded each of his four UFC wins by KO/TKO. Allen has showcased a solid chin, and we have seen Silva get tired in the past, but it seems likely that "All in" will take the path of least resistance here.
Jack Jenkins ($7,600)
Jamall Emmers will be the credentialed wrestler in this matchup, but "Pretty Boy" has lost to both of the grapplers he's faced in the organization and was reversed on the ground by a lifelong kickboxer when he fought Giga Chikadze in 2020. Jenkins is relentless and powerful, which should be enough to take control of this matchup, as Emmers has been hurt by inactivity in the past.
Neil Magny ($8,500)
My read on Magny's fights has remained the same for at least the past five years, with my expectation being that he will win as long as he is a better grappler than his opponent. This is certainly the case for his fight against Phil Rowe, who is a slick and heavy puncher but has been taken down at least twice in three of his five UFC fights. Magny still weaponizes pace and pressure at 35 years old and has been finished just twice in 38 professional fights. This leads me to believe he will find top position more often than not.
Tatsuro Taira ($9,400)
Taira is a rare breed at flyweight due to his ability to knock opponents down. The Japanese fighter combines this power with his prowess as a submission grappler, which has resulted in a minimum score of 97 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins. Kleydson Rodrigues has power in his own right but looked unable to keep up with the agile C.J. Vergara in his UFC debut last
year. Tiara has many tricks up his sleeve and will be able to keep the Brazilian fighter guessing for the better part of 15 minutes.
Tabatha Ricci ($8,300)
Gillian Robertson is a masterful submission grappler from top position but has gotten stuck on her back like a turtle against more accomplished submission artists. To her credit, "The Savage" showed she can handle a committed wrestler in her last bout against Piera Rodriguez, but Ricci is a different challenge, as she handed Jessica Penne her first submission loss in over a decade when the two fought in March. Robertson simply doesn't have the chops to deal with an aggressive opponent on the feet, which doesn't leave her a lot of avenues for victory.
Loik Radzhabov ($7,800)
Radzhabov appears to be the prototypical active grappler with heavy hands, but that should be enough to topple Mateusz Rebecki, who likes to pressure but gets noticeably tired and will be at a four-inch height disadvantage. In a battle of two wrestlers who like to throw big shots, Radzhabov should be able to use his precision and cardio to come out on top.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Amanda Ribas OVER 57.5 Significant Strikes, Justin Tafa OVER 17.5 Significant Strikes, and Zhalgas Zhumagulov OVER 65.5 Significant Strikes
Ribas is so active that her predilection toward wrestling doesn't seem to affect her significant strike total. Maycee Barber will enter this contest with a takedown defense rate under 50 percent, but she has been difficult to hold down in her UFC career, which could lead to long stretches where these two engage in a kickboxing match. This would allow us to clear this total with plenty of room to spare.
I've been burned opting for overs in heavyweight fights before, but Tafa has two decisions on his UFC record, owing to the toughness of his opponents and "Bad Man's" tendency to hang back and pick his shots. Austen Lane is agile for a heavyweight and will look to grapple if the opportunity is presented. This may work to make Tafa a bit more hesitant to engage.
After having his bout canceled last week, Zhumagulov likely hopes his opponent makes it to the cage here, as Joshua Van is a flat-footed pressure fighter who isn't afraid to grapple. The fighter out of Kazakhstan should be able to really lean on his agility here. While he will mix in his wrestling, the sheer output of Zhalgas makes this an enticing play.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
David Onama – 2.1 X Multiplier
I will likely take my chances on Onama most of the time when he's this big of an underdog, as "Silent Assassin" hits hard and uses his athleticism to surprise opponents. Gabriel Santos will look to drown Onama with a heavy wrestling attack, but the Brazilian was soundly outstruck despite grounding Lerone Murphy five times, and Onama may be an even better finisher with sharper striking. While he may spend some time on his back in this one, Onama has too much going for him to let a multiplier like this pass.
Josh Emmett - 2.2 X Multiplier
Ilia Topuria has been a wrecking machine in his time with the organization, but he's never faced someone who combines agility and power quite like Emmett. We've seen Touria get hit and hurt badly before turning his fortunes around, and Emmett is one of the hardest punchers in the division, recording 11 knockdowns in his last 9 fights. This will be an exciting matchup where either man can impose their will, but the line is a bit too wide for my taste.
Bets to Consider
Jose Mariscal wins via KO/TKO (+260)
I have been waiting patiently to bet against Trevor Peek since his UFC debut, in which Erick Gonzalez seemingly staggered his debuting opponent multiple times despite landing just seven significant strikes. Peek was so sloppy with his mechanics that I can't imagine he will survive as a bull in a china shop for long. This isn't to say that Mariscal is a world-beater, but he is a solid enough boxer that he should be able to take advantage of his opponent's wide swings. The way Peek fights almost dictates that someone will go to sleep here, and I like Mariscal to keep his composure and find the shots.
Randy Brown wins via decision (+260)
Brown's length has allowed him to surprise opponents with strikes in the past, and "Rude Boy" has done well to keep his feet against grapplers, as evidenced by his 71 percent takedown defense rate. If Wellington Turman is unable to ground the much taller fighter, he will be at the mercy of his jab for 15 minutes. The Brazilian should be tough enough to see the final bell here, as he has been knocked out just twice in 24 professional fights.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Jacksonville Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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