This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Abu Dhabi Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Abu Dhabi card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Sedriques Dumas (9-2-0) v. Denis Tiuliulin (11-9-0)
Sedriques Dumas - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Denis Tiuliulin - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a good fight to target for GPP contests, as someone is likely to get finished. Though Tiuliulin is dangerous and could record an early knockout, he is more likely to get submitted early. He has been finished in four of five UFC fights. Dumas has not been great during his UFC tenure but will have a significant edge on the mat. I expect him to secure takedowns early and eventually find a submission.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Dumas
Jai Herbert (12-5-1) v. Rolando Bedoya (14-3-0)
Jai Herbert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Rolando Bedoya - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Herbert will have opportunities to record a knockout, but his output leaves much to be desired. Bedoya is far more active on the feet and will have a considerable edge on the mat if he takes it there. He makes a solid play for all contests.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Bedoya
Viktoriia Dudakova (8-0-0) v. Sam Hughes (8-6-0)
Viktoriia Dudakova - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Sam Hughes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not see this as a step up in opponent for Dudakova. While Hughes is tough and has a good ground game, she will be outmatched in every aspect of this fight. I expect Dudakova to pick up her third consecutive UFC win in as many fights. However, I would not expect a high score for DFS without an early finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Dudakova
Guram Kutateladze (12-4-0) v. Jordan Vucenic (13-2-0)
Guram Kutateladze - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Jordan Vucenic - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Kutateladze is riding a two-fight losing streak and now draws a UFC newcomer in Vucenic, who will have a massive edge on the mat. If Kutateladze wins, it will be through 15 minutes of striking and likely does not score well for DFS. If Vucenic wins, it will come from takedowns and a possible early submission, making him the better play as far as DFS goes. This will likely be a step up in competition for the newcomer, but I think he can get it done.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Vucenic
Shamil Gaziev (12-1-0) v. Don'Tale Mayes (11-6-0)
Shamil Gaziev - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
Don'Tale Mayes - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Gaziev looked amazing in his debut but was annihilated in his second fight. It's difficult to say which version we will get in this fight. Mayes is a low-level fighter who's had up-and-down success in the UFC. I do not like the pick, but this is a decent get-right spot for Gaziev if he is at his best. This is a pure GPP fight for DFS contests.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Gaziev
Mohammad Yahya (12-4-0) v. Kaue Fernandes (8-2-0)
Mohammad Yahya - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Kaue Fernandes - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a good matchup between two fighters who lost their UFC debuts. I would not give either fighter any specific advantage and would chalk this up to a pure GPP matchup for DFS contests. This fight likely comes down to whoever lands the first takedown or two in each round.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Fernandes
Alonzo Menifield (15-4-1) v. Azamat Murzakanov (13-0-0)
Alonzo Menifield - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Azamat Murzakanov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Menifield draws the daunting assignment of the undefeated Murzakanov. He is always live for an early knockout but will likely be dominated in volume. Murzakanov has plenty of power himself and is a solid play for all DFS contests.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Murzakanov
Joel Alvarez (20-3-0) v. Elves Brener (16-4-0)
Joel Alvarez - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 20 wins
Elves Brener - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This is Brener's toughest test to date. He lost his most recent fight, and it does not get any easier here. His grappling can cause some issues for Alvarez, but I do not think it will be enough. Alvarez last fought a year ago and ended the fight late in the second round by submission. I see this fight going similarly. Brener will likely struggle with the size of Alvarez, and it should end early.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Alvarez
Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) v. Lupita Godinez (12-4-0)
Mackenzie Dern - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: If Dern is successful with any takedown, she will dominate on the ground. However, she has never been the best at getting them. A pure striking match will be close and likely end up going to the judges' scorecards. I expect Dern to find some success getting this to the mat, but I would only expect a high score with an early finish.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Dern
Tony Ferguson (25-10-0) v. Michael Chiesa (16-7-0)
Tony Ferguson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
Michael Chiesa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Ferguson receives a fight he can actually win at this time in his career. He has lost seven straight, and it would be easy to choose his opponent based on that alone. Chiesa is riding a three-fight losing streak and offers little to no striking. If there is a fight Ferguson is going to win, it will be this one.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Ferguson
Marlon Vera (23-9-1) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (23-3-1)
Marlon Vera - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
Deiveson Figueiredo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Vera will always be dangerous with his striking, but he does not use it often enough and tends to start too slow. Figueiredo has been excellent in his last two fights and showed he still has plenty left in the tank. I expect him to lead the fight in volume and should have the edge on the mat. He makes a solid play for GPP contests.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Figueiredo
Shara Magomedov (13-0-0) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-8-0)
Shara Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
Michal Oleksiejczuk - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be an exciting striking match for as long as it lasts. I expect both guys to start fast and look to light the other up. This is a step up for Magomedov but one he should be able to handle. However, this fight could be a surprise if Oleksiejczuk can land flush often enough.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Magomedov
Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (17-0-0)
Cory Sandhagen - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Umar Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: The winner of this fight should be in line for a title shot. Sandhagen has easily fought better competition up to this point in each fighter's respective careers. He should have the edge in striking, while Nurmagomedov likely has an edge on the mat. If Sandhagen can defend enough takedowns, he should accumulate enough damage on the feet to win this fight. It will be close, and I do not expect a finish. However, Sandhagen's striking should be the difference in this fight, but there will be no surprise if Nurmagomedov wins.
UFC Abu Dhabi Pick: Sandhagen
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
