This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 317
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 317 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 177-74-1 ~ Dog Picks 27-20-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Payton Talbott +160
Bet of the Week Record: 12-8-1 +983
DFS Lock of the Week: Alexandre Pantoja - 17-2
Fanduel Captain: Pantoja/Talbott
Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) v. Charles Oliveira (35-10-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16 wins (6 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Elite pressure striker with sharp boxing and vicious power
- Undefeated, moving up to lightweight for his UFC 155 debut
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 35 wins (10 KO/TKO, 21 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Most submissions in UFC history with elite BJJ and dangerous Muay Thai
- Wild offense but proven against the best in the division
DFS Perspective: Topuria is as dangerous as they come, but this is a considerable test at 155, and Oliveira is still a nightmare for anyone if he drags the fight to the mat. Ilia has the power to do damage, but I'd rather see how he holds up over five rounds against a proven finisher in this division before crowning him yet. I could easily see Oliveira snatching a neck in a scramble if Topuria overcommits.
UFC 317 Pick: Oliveira
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Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) v. Kai Kara-France (25-11-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28 wins (8 KO/TKO, 11 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Relentless pace with slick grappling and underrated power
- Tough as nails — thrives in scrambles and high-volume exchanges
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25 wins (12 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 10 decisions)
- Sharp boxer with fast hands and good movement
- Has struggled when opponents mix in takedowns and sustained grappling
DFS Perspective: Kara-France is tough, but I don't think he has the tools to keep Pantoja off him for five rounds. Pantoja's pressure, transitions and scrambling are going to break Kai down over time. Expect takedowns, back takes and a constant threat of a sub.
UFC 317 Pick: Pantoja
Brandon Royval (17-7-0) v. Joshua Van (14-2-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16 wins (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Wild, unpredictable striker with dangerous submission game
- Can create chaos, but sometimes leaves openings defensively
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Most active fighter in the UFC right now — fought weeks ago and back again
- High-volume, sharp boxing and elite takedown defense for a flyweight
DFS Perspective: Royval can be dangerous anywhere, but Van's pace, durability and defensive wrestling make him a real problem. If he keeps this standing, his output should break Royval's rhythm and frustrate him over three rounds. Royval might have more pop and slicker grappling, but I trust Van's activity and volume to win this fight.
UFC 317 Pick: Van
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) v. Renato Moicano (20-6-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 22 wins (5 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Crafty veteran with solid striking and high-level grappling
- Has looked slower and hittable in recent fights
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19 wins (2 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Slick BJJ with clean boxing and sharp jab
- Momentum is strong — hunting finishes and fighting smart
DFS Perspective: Moicano is probably going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, and for good reason. Dariush still has decent striking, maybe even the edge there, but if he's as slow as he looked the last couple of fights, he's in trouble. Moicano will have a big advantage on the mat and should find ways to get there. If Dariush can't pull the trigger or keeps getting backed up, this could be a rough night for him.
UFC 317 Pick: Moicano
Payton Talbott (9-1-0) v. Felipe Lima (14-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 7 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision)
- Clean striker with fast hands and slick movement
- Coming off a rough fight, but still has big upside and finishing tools
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Aggressive finisher with a well-rounded attack
- UFC debut — brings pressure, but defense can be questionable
DFS Perspective: I don't get why Talbott is the dog here. Sure, he had a shaky fight last time, but the kid's legit. Lima pushes a pace but leaves plenty of openings, and Talbott's sharp striking should eat him alive if he stays composed. I trust Talbott to show up with adjustments, stuff takedowns, and light Lima up on the feet.
UFC 317 Pick: Talbott
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Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (16-6-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23 wins (10 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Veteran with a tricky grappling game and decent volume striking
- Slower lately, but still opportunistic and crafty in scrambles
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Heavy-handed brawler with solid BJJ and brutal ground-and-pound
- Durable but cuts easily — fights often turn into bloodbaths
DFS Perspective: I'm siding with Rodrigues, but not fully confident. Hermansson has definitely slowed down, but he's still tricky enough to find windows, especially if this hits the mat. Rodrigues should be the sharper, more explosive guy, but he's so easy to bust open and bleed everywhere that any momentum can swing fast. Lean Rodrigues to land the bigger shots and push pace, but I won't be surprised if Hermansson drags him into a messy, close fight.
UFC 317 Pick: Rodrigues
Hyder Amil (11-0-0) v. Jose Delgado (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 8 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Relentless pressure striker with high volume and solid cardio
- Keeps a pace that forces mistakes and breaks opponents down
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 8 wins (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Heavy hitter with fast finishes and good pop early
- Can be wild and slow down if he can't get the quick knockout
DFS Perspective: I'm riding with Amil here. He's the better pressure striker, throws way more volume, and should be able to drown Delgado if he survives the early heat. Delgado is live for a big shot or quick sub, so taking both sides in DFS isn't a bad idea. However, I trust Amil's pace and toughness to drag this into deep water and find a finish himself.
UFC 317 Pick: Amil
Viviane Araujo (13-6-0) v. Tracy Cortez (11-2-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Athletic, strong grappler with decent striking
- Can fade late and struggle with high-paced wrestlers
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 9 decisions)
- Clean boxing, solid wrestling, and strong control game
- Smart fight IQ — sticks to gameplans and grinds opponents down
DFS Perspective: They have similar skill sets, but I think Cortez is better everywhere. She should be able to match Araujo's physicality, win scrambles, and bank control time round by round. If she keeps her pace up and mixes in her boxing, Araujo will have a hard time finding openings. Expect Cortez to grind her way to a clear decision win.
UFC 317 Pick: Cortez
Terrance McKinney (16-7-0) v. Viacheslav Borshchev (8-5-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 15 wins (8 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Explosive finisher with quick starts and dangerous wrestling
- Chin is questionable — all or nothing style if fights stay standing
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 decision)
- Crisp striker with big power and slick body shots
- Terrible takedown defense — struggles badly on the mat
DFS Perspective: McKinney has to be careful with his chin because Borshchev can crack, but Slava is awful once his back hits the canvas. If McKinney fights smart, uses his wrestling early, and doesn't get dragged into a brawl, he should dominate on the mat and find a quick sub or ground-and-pound finish.
UFC 317 Pick: McKinney
Jhonata Diniz (8-1-0) v. Alvin Hines (7-0-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Explosive striker with a deep kickboxing background and serious knockout power
- Still raw in grappling, but dangerous the longer the fight stays upright
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded prospect with solid pressure and finishing ability
- Making his UFC debut — aggressive but still untested at this level
DFS Perspective: I'm siding with Diniz. Hines is a solid prospect, but Diniz has the kind of power and striking polish that can break opponents down fast. I expect him to keep this on the feet and pick Hines apart with kicks and straight shots until the finish comes. Diniz might still have questions on the ground, but I don't think Hines is the one to test them.
UFC 317 Pick: Diniz
Niko Price (16-8-0) v. Jacobe Smith (10-0-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Wild brawler with unorthodox striking and legit finishing power
- Tons of UFC experience, but durability and consistency are concerns
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- High-level wrestler with heavy top pressure and developing hands
- Still green, but physical and relentless when he gets momentum
DFS Perspective: While I do think Smith should win, I also think he's being priced a little too wide here. Price is the veteran with way more experience and can make things ugly if he's firing on all cylinders. That said, Smith's pressure and wrestling edge are going to be hard to deny if he sticks to the game plan. Not writing Price off completely, but Smith is a big favorite for a reason
UFC 317 Pick: Smith
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
