UFC 312 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC rolls on with a Pay-Per-View card in Sydney, Australia, which will be capped off by two title fights. We'll look at each bout across three platforms, including a light heavyweight looking to get back in the win column and a young welterweight looking to topple a veteran. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Dricus Du Plessis ($8,600)
I initially thought Sean Strickland did enough to edge out a decision against Du Plessis when the two fought last year. Upon rewatching, however, a dynamic struck me that will once again be difficult for Strickland to overcome: he can be hurt by his opponent and has shown no signs that he is able to return the favor. Not only does this mean that "Stillknocks" can end the fight suddenly, but it also will make it hard for the former champion to bank rounds, as any good work can be undone at the drop of a hat. Add in the wrestling and physicality, and it becomes difficult to see how Strickland sustains a winning performance over five rounds.
Zhang Weili ($8,000)
Weili being a slight underdog in this bout proves that Tatiana Suarez's reputation as a dominant force precedes her, as she has not stepped in the Octagon in over a year and has never fought five rounds. While she won both her fights after returning from injury, something seemed to be missing from the fighter we once knew, as she found herself in more precarious positions. As long as the champion doesn't get submitted, I expect her to take Suarez into deep water and win the day, perhaps throwing in her own wrestling for good measure.
Jimmy Crute ($7,700)
While Rodolfo Bellato may have won his UFC debut, I find it hard to pick someone who was put in so much trouble by divisional punching bag Ihor Potieria. Bellato is far too available to be hit, which should allow Crute to use his speed at range and take advantage of the Brazilian's upright posture to find his own takedowns. Crute has been anything but the picture of success lately, but this seems like the perfect opportunity to take advantage of a deceptive result.
Aleksandre Topuria ($9,300)
Topuria has all the trappings of his champion brother. He is quick, powerful, and possesses a strong wrestling game. Colby Thicknesse is another wrestler with an impressive gas tank, but he doesn't have any of Topuria's punching power or speed. That should make this a quick night for Topuria as he announces himself to the world.
Gabriel Santos ($8,900)
Santos' athleticism and power wrestling attack should be all that is needed to get by Jack Jenkins, who is flatfooted by comparison. Jenkins has done a decent job staying upright but has been taken down at least once in four of his five UFC fights, which makes me think that Santos should be able to ground him and score points from top position.
Kody Steele ($9,100)
Steele can do a bit of everything in the cage, with power and athleticism being his main attributes. Rong Zhu has a style that appears built to succeed on the regional scene, as he attempts to stalk forward and throw big shots until his opponents wilt. The problem is a complete lack of footwork that often leads to the Chinese fighter chasing his target while he eats big shots. I expect speed to be a major difference in this one, with Steele being able to hit and not get hit.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Cong Wang UNDER 70.5 Significant Strikes, Nyamjargal Tumendemberel OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, and Quillan Salkilld OVER 54.5 Significant Strikes
Wang has the style to exceed this number, but there are factors at play that should keep strikes down. The first is her opponent, as Bruna Brasil has secured six takedowns in her last three fights, as well as over six minutes of control time against Molly McCann when the two squared off in July. We should also note that Wang was rocked and submitted for her first professional loss less than three months ago, which could result in a more tentative performance this time.
Tumendemberel likes to stand in the pocket and throw, so absent a committed wrestling attack from Hyun Sung Park, this total should clear. "Art of Knockout" has never been finished in nine professional fights, giving me confidence that he will tally up strikes for the better part of 15 minutes.
Salkilld isn't much of a finisher, and the knockouts he does get seem to come in opportunistic or flash situations. Anshul Jubli is a quick striker from range, and while Salkilld will likely get the better of this one due to his crisp boxing combinations, we should have enough competitive exchanges to get us over the line.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Kevin Jousset UNDER 14.99 Minutes of Fight Time, and Tallison Teixeira OVER 4.75 Minutes of Fight Time
Jousset versus Jonathan Micallef is a battle of contrasting styles, as "Air" is a dangerous range striker, and "The Captain" wants nothing more than to bring the fight to the ground and work his submissions. I expect this fight to end before the final bell as a result, as either man will appear lost in the world of the other.
At six foot seven, Teixeira is one of the tallest fighters to appear in the Octagon. Normally this results in a quick and sloppy fight, but I expect Justin Tafa to take his time and try to work his way into range as an experienced kickboxer. We have seen Tafa use his style to take fights the distance before, and it wouldn't surprise me if we got some kind of feeling out process here.
Bets to Consider
Slava Borshchev wins via KO/TKO (+160)
The UFC may be rushing Tom Nolan as a prospect, as he has recently underperformed against less-than-stellar competition. Slava is an absolute sniper with tremendous power, which is complemented by combinations to the body. Nolan is long and powerful enough that he could find the Russian's chin, but it is more likely that "Big Train's" lack of defense hurts him.
Francisco Prado (+200)
I'm picking Prado based on aggression and power alone, as Jake Matthews is generally content to sit back and let his opponent dictate terms. "The Celtic Kid" could probably get this done on the mat, but Matthews has made it clear he does not want to wrestle in the cage, having notched just one takedown in his last three fights. We have seen Prado continue to fight when he is hurt, which should result in the Argentine wearing his opponent out in the later rounds.
