It's not often that a big-ticket card is scheduled with just ten fights, but UFC 306 has trimmed the fat to bring us one of the best slates we have seen in months. The upshot of this is that it will be harder for DFS owners to have a unique optimal lineup, but we will break down every fight to let players of all stripes know where to find value. Selections this week include a wild and powerful lightweight as well as a rising Mexican fighter looking to keep his knockout streak alive. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Merab Dvalishvili ($7,700)
Something will have to give in our bantamweight title fight, which pits the division's elite striker against a tireless and tough wrestling machine. It is that toughness that has me picking the Georgian here, as we've seen him withstand beatings only to turn around and get a finish. O'Malley has been taken down by every fighter willing to commit to a takedown attempt over a long stretch, and Merab will never stop with his offense once he gets going.
Valentina Shevchenko ($7,900)
If the first two fights between Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso have shown us anything, it's that Valentina needs to avoid prolonged striking exchanges and jiujitsu scrambles. This still leaves a clear avenue for "Bullet" to win the fight, as she has amassed eight takedowns and over 15 minutes of control time over the first nine rounds of competition. If she can stay focused for five complete rounds, Valentina should be able to use blitzing strikes and her top-position game to take home the victory and rack up points.
Esteban Ribovics ($7,200)
Daniel Zellhuber likes to force his opponents into slow, methodical kickboxing matches. Ribovics will give him the exact opposite type of fight, pouring on the pressure and creating chaos from the opening bell. While it is true that Zellhuber was able to withstand the heat of Francisco Prado, Ribovics is more dynamic offensively, hits harder, and will turn to a wrestling game if necessary. "Golden Boy" has shown good defense to this point in his career, but it will take more than pivoting off the cage to stop the onslaught here.
Raul Rosas ($9.700)
I was impressed by Rosas's recent victory over Ricky Turcios, as he showed he could handle a fighter whose goal was to bring a fight to him. In Aori Qileng, he will get a different, if somewhat more manageable, version of that fight. Qileng is a bit of a brawler, as he looks to come forward and throw big shots. While he may need to weather a storm or two, it seems more likely that "El Nino Problema" will be able to hit reactive takedowns from the Chinese fighter's wild swings. Once on the ground, it shouldn't be too long until Rosas finds another submission.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Joshua Van OVER 85.5 Significant Strikes, Irene Aldana OVER 56.5 Significant Strikes, and Yazmin Jauregui UNDER 79.5 Significant Strikes
We are staring at an awfully big total for a three-round fight but also dealing with a fighter who has put up a staggering 8.55 significant strikes per minute in his four UFC fights. Moreover, Edgar Chairez is the perfect kind of opponent for our play, as he is often content to hang back and take the fight as it comes. He has also never been knocked out in 16 professional bouts, meaning he should stick around to absorb every last strike from Van.
This fight (and our play) hinges on whether Aldana can avoid getting into clinch situations with Norma Dumont. While wrestlers have beaten Aldana in the past, they have either been stronger (Holly Holm) or just all-around better fighters (Amanda Nunes). Dumont will have little success if she can't get the fight to the ground, which should allow Aldana to narrow her defensive focus.
Jauregui is also a high-output striker, but unlike Van, she is facing a fighter who will look to clinch and take the fight to the ground. Ketlen Souza stands so upright in space that Jauregui will find her shots, but given the style of fight, she will likely run out of time before reaching such a big total.
Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Fight Time
Diego Lopes UNDER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Ronaldo Rodriguez OVER 10.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Brian Ortega has been lauded for his toughness, but he is yet to face a truly big puncher at bantamweight, surviving storms against Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez. Lopes is a vicious swinger in the pocket and is a good enough BJJ player that he will likely not get submitted on the ground. Due to this, it's unlikely that our fighters will survive the car crashes that are bound to happen in space.
Given the relatively short total here, it seems likely that line makers are expecting a Ronaldo submission victory, as Ode Osbourne has lost each of his last two fights by submission. However, I find it unlikely that Ronaldo will be able to get on the inside, as he will be dealing with an eight-inch reach disadvantage. "Lazy Boy" is not a tremendous pressure fighter, so I don't expect him to make Osbourne uncomfortable with his range.
Bets to Consider
Manuel Torres Wins via KO/TKO (+250)
For as often as Ignacio Bahamondes brawls in the pocket, it is surprising that he has yet to experience a knockout loss. This will be difficult to escape against Torres, who has finished each of his last four wins via strikes. Torres will also have advantages in both grappling and speed, making it easy to see him finding a knockout blow while protecting against any attempts to bring the fight to the ground.
