This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 301 may not come with the fireworks we saw for the last Pay-Per-View in terms of star power, but we have plenty of closely-lined fights strewn about the 14-fight slate, which bettors and DFS players can use to profit. We will cover every bout across three platforms, including a boxer who will be far more competitive than the line suggests and a Brazilian legend coming back to ignite the fans in Rio. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA Betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,800)
While I am glad that the UFC reversed course on its initial decision to eliminate the flyweight division after the departure of Demetrious Johnson, the talent pool has yet to recover completely. The upshot of this is giving a fighter like Steve Erceg, who was a large underdog against David Dvorak in June, a title shot on the back of three-straight wins. To be clear, "Astroboy" has a solid jab and can grapple effectively, but we saw him struggle when pressured by Alessandro Costa, causing him to leave his chin in the air and back up in straight lines. Pantoja will never stop advancing on Erceg in the Octagon, collapsing the range and throwing big shots. I also see nothing in his career that tells me he can survive on the ground with the likes of "The Cannibal." I want to see Erceg's career develop at the highest level, but I expect Pantoja to roll in this one.
Caio Borralho ($9,500)
I consider Borralho's claim that he will knock Craig out a bit lofty, but I still like him to be in control of this fight everywhere, including on the ground. We know how tricky the Scottish fighter can be in grappling scenarios, but Borralho is the much better wrestler here and should be able to stay a step ahead in top position. It goes without saying that the Brazilian has the athleticism advantage, but I still think he reverts to where he is most comfortable to win the bout.
Joanderson Brito ($8,500)
When preparing to make a pick on this fight, I began to wonder what Jack Shore's fight with Ricky Simon would have looked like if Simon was more athletic and hit much harder. That is the reality that the Welsh fighter faces in his new weight class, generally, but it is especially the case here, as Brito's aggression and submission acumen come with tremendous power. I fail to see how Shore measures up in any phase of this fight, as Brito is at least fast enough to stay with "Tank" and his size advantage will turn what may have been competitive grappling into a clear advantage.
Iasmin Lucindo ($9,200)
As the active wrestler and grappler in this matchup, it would be enough to say that Lucindo will simply dominate in the area where she is best, as Karolina Kowalkiewicz has had trouble with fighters who have tried to ground her consistently in the past. However, it is also the case that the Polish fighter can be intimidated in the Octagon, and Lucindo will march her down from the opening bell, looking to land big shots. Kowalkiewicz likes to be able to plant and throw, but she will have neither the time nor space to do so, as she will need to contend with multiple avenues of attack from the Brazilian.
Myktybek Orolbai ($9,000)
Elves Brener has put himself on the radar by overcoming adversity late in fights, but I don't think he has enough magic left for Orolbai, a strong and methodical control grappler who will not give up on his wrestling. The Chinese fighter already made quick work of an athletic, dangerous striker in Uros Medic, and I doubt Brener's spirit will be enough to pull another one out of the fire.
Kevin Borjas ($8,000)
I was so impressed with what I saw from Borjas on the Contender Series that I selected him in his UFC debut against heralded prospect Joshua Van. While he came up short in that outing, he showed me enough in the second frame to justify the pick. Borjas features a stinging jab, can put combinations together, and will use his grappling when necessary to gain an advantage. This should work wonders against Costa, who likes to wind up and throw big strikes. This will leave him open for reactive takedowns, while the athleticism and sharp counterpunching can make Costa pay for entering the pocket recklessly. It wouldn't be surprising if Borjas takes a beat or two to learn his opponent's timing, but he should be able to dictate the terms of the fight from there.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Michel Pereira UNDER 35.5 Significant Strikes, Jean Silva UNDER 45.5 Significant Strikes, and Ismael Bonfim UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes
I would select the under for most totals concerning Ihor Potieria, whose decision win over Robert Bryczek was the first time he had seen the final bell in his last seven bouts. Pereira seems reenergized as a middleweight, rolling through both Andre Petroski and Michal Oleksiejczuk in the first round. I expect the more risk-averse version of Potieria we saw in his last bout to quickly disappear once "Demolidor" begins pressuring and swinging for the bleachers. This should result in a quick finish for either man, leaving us room to spare on our total.
William Gomis' tremendous command of range, combined with Jean Silva's incredible knockout power, should result in a very slow (and potentially boring) bout. When we factor in the wrestling of Gomis, which will likely be employed to stifle that aforementioned power, what emerges is a clear "under" selection, regardless of whether this fight reaches the scorecards.
Bonfim is a slick and devastating striker who had real problems on the ground against Benoit Saint-Denis, which led to a submission loss in Round 2. Vinc Pichel is a wrestler by trade, so it is only natural to assume that he will try to exploit the same weakness. This fight likely ends in a stoppage one way or another, but so much grappling will have been done to that point that I doubt we will get anywhere close to our strike total here.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Vitor Petrino UNDER 11 Minutes of Fight Time, Drakkar Klose OVER 12.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Mauricio Ruffy UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time
At this point in his career, it would be mildly shocking if Anthony Smith could go a full 15 minutes with the big punchers at light heavyweight. Petrino can sling leather with the best of them, which will force "Lionheart" to abandon his jab and kick-heavy style in favor of either brawling or grappling. In either case, I expect that the fight-ending sequence occurs quickly here, as it is likely Petrino will want to take advantage of the fact that Smith has not seen the inside of a cage since December.
I'm a bit surprised to see our next line in a Klose fight. While three of his last four bouts have ended inside the distance, the 36-year-old was largely thought of as a decision machine before this point, as each of his previous six bouts saw the judges' scorecards. Joaquim Silva has never been knocked out in 18 professional fights, and as I don't expect Klose to submit "Neto BJJ," so this fight looks to fit fairly comfortably in our "over" column.
The same cannot be said for Ruffy's bout with Jamie Mullarkey, as the Australian fighter seemingly cannot fight without throwing himself in exchanges. Ruffy has some holes in his defense, but is a certified knockout artist, having finished all nine of his victories by KO/TKO. Mullarkey has been finished in each of his last three losses, and Ruffy is far from the ideal opponent if your chin has seen better days.
Bets to Consider
Jose Aldo Wins via Decision (+210)
A fighter coming off a layoff for any reason may rightly raise some eyebrows from the betting community, doubly so if that fighter recently felt like they were done with the sport. However, I really can't imagine a better comeback fight for Aldo, as Jonathan Martinez is a stationary kickboxer whose game can't sustain much if the leg kicks aren't working. In recent years, Aldo has moved his focus from offensive kicking to expertly defending leg kicks. This, in addition to Aldo's speed advantage, should see him do just enough to get his hand raised.
Ernesta Kareckaite wins via KO/TKO (+900)
In the bout between Kareckaite and Dione Barbosa, we have two relatively inactive fighters with opposing skill sets. Barbosa will be the slick grappler in the matchup, while "heavy-handed" throws tight, straight shots with volume and always looks to take the center of the Octagon from her opponent. Barbosa's knockout loss came against UFC veteran Josiane Nunes in 2019 and occurred due to "Josi" still looking to implement her game after grappling exchanges had failed. Kareckaite showed solid takedown defense on the Contender Series, making this a fun little number to take a shot at.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC 301 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
North Carolina sports betting launched March 11 with a variety of quality online sportsbooks. Some of our favorite North Carolina sportsbook promos include the Caesars North Carolina promo code and the Fanatics Sportsbook North Carolina promo code.
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
