This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The first pay-per-view of 2024 is here, which means it's time for another edition of the MMA Mashup. In this article series, we take a look at plays across various platforms in order to give prospective players several avenues to potentially profit. This week, we will look at all 12 bouts across three platforms, including two distinct PrizePicks formats. Our targeted plays include a middleweight with a seemingly unlimited gas tank and a flyweight who looks primed to overperform in DFS formats. Our betting line this week comes from DraftKings Sportsbook and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Jasmine Jasudavicius ($9,500)
Jausdavicius makes the list here due to the fact that Priscila Cachoeira has always been susceptible to takedowns, and the Canadian fighter is one of the physically strongest in the division. While she isn't a wrestler by trade, Jasudavicius did score four takedowns in her victory over Gabriella Fernandes, so she can switch the game plan if necessary. Jasudavicius tends to stand upright, which leaves "Zombie Girl" live for a knockout, but the more likely outcome is rinse and repeat takedowns, which could lead to a larger score than usual for the 34-year-old.
Malcolm Gordon ($8,300)
I count Gordon as another fighter who may surprise with a big score, as Jimmy Flick has just looked out of sorts after taking a hiatus following his debut victory in 2020. Almost no regard for defense combined with sloppy looking takedown entries have led to Flick being finished in two consecutive fights, and Gordon is an aggressive puncher with a slick BJJ game of his own. Unless Flick can find a submission off of his back, I expect Gordon to have a fairly easy time here. The fact that many people don't think of dominant performances when they think of Gordon could also get us some nice scarcity.
Gillian Robertson ($9,100)
A Limited striking game causes Robertson to bump into a hard ceiling every now and again, but she's almost a must-own fighter in favorable matchups, as she never stops trying to get the fight to the ground. While Polyana Viana is a legitimate shubmission threat, her upright posture simultaneously makes it difficult for her to stop takedowns and find her own entries to get the fight to the ground. She will need to be careful in bottom position, but Robertson should be able to garner quite a bit of top control time here, with a better-than-average chance that this fight ends in the first round.
Movsar Evloev ($8,700)
Arnold Allen may boast an impressive 76 percent takedown defense rate, but we just saw "Almighty" melted by the pressure and pace of Max Holloway. It goes without saying that Evloev is not the same caliber of boxer as Holloway, but the pressure should be there just the same, with the undefeated fighter pouring on offense in all phases. It's often not helpful to look at fighters without context, but it's hard not to recognize that Evloev's price is a $500 discount from his previous cheapest price, and he is averaging a whopping 105.7 DraftKings points per contest.
Brad Katona ($8,800)
Garrett Armfield has a style to dazzle the regional scene, as he stiffly plods forward and throws constant volume in an attempt to break his opponent. I have a hard time seeing this strategy as a success against someone like Katona, who is a good athlete, can pour on his own volume and pressure, and is tricky on the ground. In short, there are just too many tools for Armfield to keep track of here, and his aggression should ensure that our winner gets a nice score.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Yohan Lainesse UNDER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Mike Malott OVER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Mayra Bueno Silva OVER 22.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Lainesse works so slowly that I would have been tempted to take the over if a minute or two were shaved off, but I can't predict a fight between two glass cannons who have been finished in three out of four combined UFC fights to extend far beyond the first round. Sam Patterson stands so upright and stiff that he will be a waiting target for the athletic Lainesse, while Patterson could connect on an opponent who has a tendency to square up in the pocket.
Malott has shown himself to be something of a total package in the UFC, but he has a durability test in the person of Neil Magny, who has been knocked out just twice in 39 professional fights, while only being submitted by the elite grapplers of the division. I expect Magny to make this one of his usual sticky affairs, which should allow to time to bleed off the clock.
Bueno Silva has found her finishing stride of late, submitting her last three opponents. However, I'm not convinced this is a viable path against Raquel Pennington, who has only been subbed once in her career. Pennington's takedown defense has been decent at best, but Silva still executes just 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time, leaving her without a clear way to end this fight early.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Serhiy Sidey OVER 37.5 Significant Strikes, Charles Jourdain OVER 75.5 Significant Strikes, and Sean Strickland OVER 72.5 Significant Strikes
Sidey will take on Ramon Taveras in a rematch of a Contender Series bout that the Canadian fighter won via TKO. The catch here is that it was almost universally agreed that the bout was stopped too early, as Taveras was engaged in defense from the minute he was knocked down. While the linemakers may see another early stoppage, I see no reason to assume as much, as Taveras does a good job sitting behind his jab and controlling range. Both men in this bout are finishers, so this one may not see the final horn, but I expect a lot of strikes exchanged before someone gets their hand raised.
Jourdain and Sean Woodson are two of the most active strikers in the division so I don't see much wrong with taking the over on a hefty total here. Woodson has been known to look for takedowns if he feels outgunned on the feet, but Jourdain's submission prowess should be enough to keep this one standing.
As if to make the point that the total above is quite high, we now see a five-round affair expected to go lower. This is a bit puzzling, as Strickland has shown a renewed penchant for crowding his opponents and throwing strikes, and Dricus Du Plessis isn't exactly shy about brawling. My guess here is that the linesmakers are concerned that Du Plessis will try and wrestle, but Strickland is notoriously hard to take down, and even harder to hold on the mat. This should facilitate a striking match over 25 minutes.
Bets to Consider
Marc-Andre Barriault wins via Decision (+400)
Barriault is known for his ability to wear on his opponents with strikes and clinch work, while Chris Curtis has gained a deserved reputation for being a slow starter. Barrault should start fast here and not let up, which should allow him to simply outwork Curtis, jumping ahead two rounds even if "Action Man" tries to turn it on late.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 297 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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