It's been a minute since we've enjoyed two title fights on a Pay-Per-View card, but that's just what's in store for UFC 295, as the interim heavyweight and light heavyweight straps will be up for grabs in five-round fights. We'll cover each bout across three platforms, including an aggressive, powerful underdog, and a terrifying presence who will look to put another foe to sleep. Our betting lines this week come from The RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Mackenzie Dern ($9,000)
My hesitancy to pick Dern to win fights has been due entirely to her lack of takedown prowess, and while her accuracy still stands at an unsightly 15 percent, it's worth noting that she has grounded her opponent five times in her last two fights. This includes three takedowns and a (relatively) solid 33 percent accuracy rate in her last bout with Angela Hill. While she still has her flaws, they pale in comparison to the ones we have seen from Jessica Andrade, whose once stalking, suffocating pressure and power now seem like random flailing. It's still quite possible for Andrade to land a big shot, but Andrade is so unstructured that she will likely give Dern plenty of opportunities to tie up, which will likely be all she will need.
Benoit Saint-Denis ($9,100)
My pick of Thiago Moises aged about as poorly as one could given the fact that the French fighter put up an astounding 149 DraftKings points when the two fought in September. It's not as though I didn't think Saint-Denis was capable of controlling the fight, but I did think a ground specialist who had been showing improved boxing and movement would be able to shut him down where it mattered. I see comparatively little threat in the person of Matt Frevola, who has been dominated by wrestlers before. "Steamrolla" may have heavy hands, but one thing that I never questioned about Saint-Denis was his toughness, which will almost certainly be there again if he needs it.
Pat Sabatini ($8,300)
Everyone (myself included) seems to love Diego Lopes as a scrappy brawler who can be very tricky on the ground. The problem with that skill set in a matchup like this is not only does Sabatini carry more power with his technique, but he is the best controlling grappler Lopes has faced in the Octagon to date. Much like in his fight with Lucas Almeida, I expect Sabatini to use the fence expertly while in top position to block the transitions and scrambles Lopes will try to initiate on the ground, while tagging him with hard shots for every minute the bout stays at range.
Steve Erceg ($8,600)
Erceg is now a solid favorite after a win in his UFC debut, which saw him hit the DraftKings' board at a salary below $7,000. It's easy to see why, as the Canadian fighter showed a solid pressure boxing game mixed in with the ability to scramble and look for takedowns. Alessandro Costa can put in good work to the body but was shut down and finished by a pressuring striker in Amir Albazi. While Erceg may not have that kind of power, he should be able to control this fight wherever it goes, racking up points along the way.
Lupita Godinez ($8,700)
It's often said that a matchup between two grapplers quickly turns into a kickboxing match. If that is the case in her bout against Tabatha Ricci, then I favor Godinez tremendously, who showed nice combination punching and an ability to mix her attacks in a comprehensive win over Elise Reed in September. Ricci has never been a physically strong fighter for the division, and I don't see her making up that gap if she can't use her grappling as an equalizer.
Mateusz Rebecki ($9,600)
A late addition to the fight card after Nurullo Aliev had to withdraw due to a leg injury, Roosevelt Roberts is the latest beneficiary of The Ultimate Fighter reality show, as it allowed him to stay on the UFC's radar after he was cut from the promotion in 2021. In short, I see very few win conditions for Roberts here, as his upright stance in the pocket leaves him open to be hit, while his willingness to grapple combined with poor submission defense led to him being tapped by Jim Miller and Kevin Croom (since overturned) before being absolutely battered and knocked out by Ignacio Bahamondes. The price may seem prohibitive, but Rabeckei is a cash mainstay at the very least, and I would argue there is still upside to be had for GPP tournaments.
Nazim Sadykhov ($8,500)
Slava Borshchev is fun to watch when he can get into space and land combinations, but he has been ground into dust by both wrestlers he has faced in the UFC, and I fail to see how this will get better against a fighter in Sadykhov who will pressure to take away that range before taking the fight where he needs it to be. Sadykhov is a physically strong positional grappler, so I don't imagine "Slava Claus" will find much joy if he can't get respect immediately.
Mark Madsen ($7,300)
It's not often that I pick fights squarely on lack of opponent upside, but aside from some solid boxing, Jared Gordon doesn't speak to me as a DFS play, as the three takedowns he has landed in his last four fights all came in his bout with Paddy Pimblett. Madsen will only have grappling on his mind in this contest, which could lead to a nice return on investment at this price.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Alex Pereira OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes and Joshua Van OVER 60.5 Significant Strikes
It may not be the sexiest way to play a five-round fight, but I am legitimately surprised at the low total here and can't pass up the opportunity. The speed at which both "Poatan" and Jiri Prochazka work suggests that a quick knockout is being forecasted on either side, but I'm not sure I see that as the most likely outcome. We know how tough Prochazka is, having only been knocked out twice in 32 fights, and Pereira has shown an ability to weather storms, getting surprised by Israel Adesanya for his one loss by knockout. "BJP" is more likely to break his opponent than he is to knock them out cold early, and if that happens, odds are we will have already passed this total.
Kevin Borjas showed on the Contender Series that he loves to get loose in the pocket. He also showcased the ability to get back to his feet repeatedly after being taken down. This should ensure that the fight stays at range against Van, who has won just two of his eight fights by submission and is more than willing to meet his opponent in the center of the cage.
Bets to Consider
Kyung Ho Kang (+124)
Despite being a bit hittable, Kang strikes me as one of the more quietly skilled fighters at Bantamweight. He can use his height and reach and is athletic as well as being a tremendously strong grappler. By contrast, John Castaneda is more of a one-note pocket boxer. While he can be creative with his combinations, I see Kang as having too many tools to be any kind of underdog in this spot.
Dennis Buzukja (+220)
Speaking of lopsided lines, I'm not clear on what Jamall Emmers has done against anyone to earn this kind of favorite status. I say this with particular regard to Buzukja, who is incredibly aggressive and powerful, and applies suffocating pressure. Emmers is fast but used that speed for little more than skirting around the outside of the Octagon in a loss to Jack Jenkins in June. I like Buzukja on work rate alone here, with an outside possibility that his power produces a more definitive result.
Sergei Pavlovich wins via KO/TKO (+125)
Tom Aspinall has looked impressive barring an injury loss to Curtis Blaydes, but I worry that much of his success comes due to his athleticism and grappling ability, two things that are in short supply in the heavyweight division. While Pavlovich isn't much of an offensive grappler, he showed an ability to stuff shots in his own fight with Blaydes and is so good at cutting off the cage that even athletic opponents need to deal with his incredible power. I expect Aspinall to get stuck behind the black line before long, leaving him nowhere to go but down.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 295 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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