The UFC is in Sydney, Australia for UFC 293, and though this card is underwhelming from a PPV perspective, we still have 12 fights to sift through to determine the best ways to profit in DFS and betting formats. We'll take a look at each bout across four platforms, including a long-time veteran getting little respect from Vegas and a bruising heavyweight looking to get back on track. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Gabriel Miranda ($7,600)
At this point, it seems the pressure-fighting combination puncher that Shane Young was early in his UFC run has completely disappeared. What remains is a much more tentative counter striker who can still put punches together, but is much more willing to let an opponent take the fight over. Miranda is a bit wild in his approach, but he will never stop throwing strikes and looking for takedowns, which should be too much for this version of Young to handle.
Charlie Radtke ($9,100)
Radtke's willingness to shoot for takedowns combined with his understanding of positional grappling is more than enough to pick him over Blood Diamond, who is 3-2 in professional MMA and is still searching for his first UFC win. Even if he could keep things on the feet and use his kickboxing skills, Mathetha has been known to slow down late in fights, making it difficult to find a path to victory for him here.
Jack Jenkins ($8,700)
I picked Jose Mariscal to win his UFC debut as part of an "anyone but Trevor Peek" campaign, but "Machine Gun" will now face a fighter in Jenkins who throws crisp combinations and is a physically strong grappler. For as tough and gritty as Mariscal can be, there is basically nothing separating a fighter like Peek from anyone else on a regional circuit. Thus, I consider this to be his true UFC debut. While it won't be surprising to see him have success early, I expect Jenkins to get more comfortable as the bout progresses, which should ultimately result in a dominant performance.
Kiefer Crosbie ($7,800)
A battle of two debutantes may seem like a tough fight to call, but I will always favor the athleticism and deep skill set of someone like Crosby over the more upright, powerful approach of Kevin Jousset. Crosby will need to negotiate a five-inch reach disadvantage here, but "BDK" has never had a problem pressuring his opponents, and should be able to take the Octagon away from the longer fighter.
Tyson Pedro ($8,000)
Seeing Pedro lined this closely against a fighter without a victory in the UFC is a good indication of how far he's fallen in the eyes of the public. There was a time when the Australian fighter was thought of as a potential contender in the light heavyweight division due to his power and ability to grapple. I believe we will see more of that fighter against Anton Turkalj, who can do a bit of everything in the cage, but is so wild and unstructured that sustaining any kind of momentum in a fight at this level has proven difficult. While he has fallen on hard times, Pedro is at least comfortable with his skill set, which should be enough to get him a much-needed victory.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Justin Tafa OVER 18.5 Significant Strikes, Nasrat Haqparast OVER 72.5 Significant Strikes, and Manel Kape OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes.
This prediction is essentially a reiteration of one I made ahead of their first fight, which ended when Austen Lane accidentally poked Tafa in the eye during the opening minute of the bout. Tafa has two decisions on his UFC record, owing to the toughness of his opponents and "Bad Man's" tendency to hang back and pick his shots. Lane is agile for a heavyweight and will look to grapple if the opportunity is presented. This may work to make Tafa a bit more hesitant to engage.
We've seen Haqparast struggle when on the short end of the tape measurer, but the TriStar product will head into this one with a two-inch reaching advantage, allowing him to work his kickboxing in space. Landon Quinones has a tendency to let his opponents dictate the type of fight that takes place, ensuring that these two will be throwing strikes from range for the majority of the contest.
The UFC may not have done Felipe dos Santos any favors when giving him the short-notice call to fight Kape, who has become an expert at negotiating range and has improved his takedown defense, as well as his scrambling ability on the mat. Dos Santos should have a tough time getting past that range here, giving "Starboy" license to pick him apart with long, crisp strikes.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Tai Tuivasa – 2.05 X Multiplier
It's likely that too much is being made of Tuivasa's back-to-back KO/TKO losses, as Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich remain the most technical and the most dangerous fighters in the division, respectively. While Alexander Volkov has certainly shown that he can dominate a fight, I still question his ability to do that against a fighter who will just keep coming. "Drago" may have periods of success in this fight, but I think the pressure of Tuivasa will get the better of him eventually, possibly resulting in a late finish for "Bam Bam."
John Makdessi -2.1 X Multiplier
Makdessi is the most senior member of the UFC on this card by a wide margin, but we saw in his fight against Ignacio Bahamondes what "The Bull" is still capable of against an opponent who tries to overwhelm with volume. I see this fight with Jamie Mullarkey as a similar style matchup, as the 29-year-old will look to come forward without much regard for defense, leaving Makdessi to utilize the slick kickboxing that has become his trademark.
Bets to Consider
Carlos Ulberg wins via KO/TKO (-125)
I've been slow to come around on Ulberg after a rocky start in the UFC, but "Black Jag's" last three performances (all of which were wins by KO/TKO) have forced my hand. Not only is Ulberg much more willing to bring the fight to his opponent, but he has improved his ability to pick his shots as well, which has allowed him to keep his cardio later in fights. Da Woon Jung is a good technical boxer, but he has a bad habit of letting punches bounce off his guard, which would be a bad idea against someone as fast and powerful as Ulberg.
Israel Adesanya wins via KO/TKO (+115)
Adesanya has been criticized due to his penchant for slowing fights down and winning the technical match that ensues, but he likely won't have that option against Sean Strickland, who will try and pour volume on the middleweight champion, particularly in the later rounds. I expect Strickland to get frustrated after a round or two of swinging at air, resulting in a push for more action that plays right into "The Last Stylebender's" hands.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 293 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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