This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 15 for UFC Vegas 104. In the main event, middleweight contenders Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze have their rematch.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 104 predictions, including a betting favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Welterweight
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (25-8-1) vs Chidi Njokuani (24-10)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos takes on Chidi Njokuani in the co-main event at welterweight, and I like dos Santos to get his hand raised.
The Brazilian is a tough out for anyone, as he is durable and a solid striker. Njokuani, meanwhile, is on a two-fight winning streak, but the level of competition has not been best. Zaleski dos Santos will be the better striker and can also mix in wrestling and clinch work.
I trust dos Santos' striking and durability more, so as a short favorite, he should be able to get the win here.
UFC Vegas 104 Bet: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-192)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Kurt Holobaugh (21-8) vs Alexander Hernandez (15-8)
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 104, I'm backing Kurt Holobaugh to beat Alexander Hernandez.
Holobaugh and Hernandez are similar fighters, as the knock on them both is their inconsistency. Sometimes Hernandez looks like a top-10 fighter, while other times he struggles.
Hernandez has a negative striking differential, and Holobaugh is an active striker who can match Hernandez's output. I also trust Holobaugh's durability to get a decision win here.
UFC Vegas 104 Bet: Kurt Holobaugh (+164)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Su Young You (14-3) vs AJ Cunningham (11-4)
AJ Cunningham is dropping all the way to bantamweight for this one. I already didn't like his durability, and I doubt he will be able to take You's shots after a bigger weight cut.
The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds and is a pick'em, which is surprising. I like You to win and potentially even finish Cunningham early.
Cunningham was finished in the second round on the Contender Series and finished in the first round of his UFC debut. Although You isn't much of a finisher, this is more of a fade on Cunningham's durability, especially with him cutting that extra weight.
UFC Vegas 104 Bet: Su Young You-AJ Cunningham under 2.5 rounds (-110)
Weight Classes: Flyweight & bantamweight
Andre Lima (10-0) vs Daniel Barez (17-6)
Da'Mon Blackshear (15-7-1) vs Cody Gibson (21-10)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 104, I'm taking Andre Lima and Da'Mon Blackshear to get their hands raised.
Lima is taking on Daniel Barez, and this fight will likely go the distance. Lima is the better striker and should be able to have success on the feet. He will land the better shots and do more damage to win a clear-cut decision.
To close out the parlay, I like Blackshear against Gibson, who has struggled against younger fighters. Blackshear has the grappling advantage but is also a good striker. Look for Blackshear to control Gibson and possibly even submit him to get a big win here.
UFC Vegas 104 Bet: Andre Lima & Da'Mon Blackshear parlay (-185)
UFC Vegas 104 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 104 bets:
- Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-192)
- Kurt Holobaugh (+164)
- Su Young You-AJ Cunningham under 2.5 rounds (-110)
- Andre Lima & Da'Mon on Blackshear parlay (-185)
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