This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Top UFC Kansas City Predictions for April 26 Event
The UFC is back after a week off and heads to Kansas City, Missouri, on Saturday, April 26, for UFC Kansas City. In the main event, welterweight contenders throw down, as Ian Garry takes on Carlos Prates.
Below, I'll share my UFC Kansas City predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez (21-5-2) vs John Castaneda (21-7)
Chris Gutierrez and John Castaneda were supposed to fight at UFC 313 in March, but on the day of the fight, an illness to Castaneda canceled the fight. Now, a month and a half later, the two will run it back. The two bantamweights will instead fight at featherweight so they don't have to cut weight twice in a short period of time.
When the fight was going to happen back in March, I leaned Gutierrez to win, and that is still the case here. Castaneda has a negative strike differential, as he gets hit more than he lands in the UFC, which isn't a good sign, especially against a quality striker like Gutierrez.
Gutierrez should be able to keep the range and land more volume to win a decision here.
UFC Kansas City Bet: Chris Gutierrez (-135)
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Weight Class: Featherweight
Timothy Cuamba (8-3) vs Roberto Romero (8-4-1)
For my underdog pick at UFC Kansas City, I'm backing Timothy Cuamba to get his first UFC win and beat Roberto Romero.
Cuamba is a slight underdog here, and although he is 0-2 in the UFC, he has fought well. Romero, meanwhile, is 0-1 in the UFC and is coming off a loss to David Onama. He didn't look good in that fight, as his striking defense left a lot to be desired (he absorbed 8.07 significant strikes per minute).
This fight should be competitive, but Cuamba is the better all-around fighter, and he should land the more damaging shots to win a decision here.
UFC Kansas City Bet: Timothy Cuamba (+110)
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Weight Class: Welterweight
Randy Brown (19-6) vs Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1)
For my prop at UFC Kansas City, I'm taking Randy Brown to get his hand raised over Nicolas Dalby by decision.
Brown and Dalby are both on the fringes of the top-15, and the winner of this fight will likely get a ranked opponent next.
Both Brown and Dalby are durable, and Brown isn't known for his finishing ability. However, Brown is the better striker, as he should be able to use his length and jab to keep Dalby at bay and piece him up for three rounds to get a decision win.
In Brown's last five wins, four have come by decision, while Dalby has never been finished in the UFC or in his entire career.
UFC Kansas City Bet: Randy Brown by decision (+100)
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Weight Classes: Bantamweight & Lightweight
Da'Mon Blackshear (16-7-1) vs Heili Alateng (17-9-2)
Evan Elder (9-2) vs Gauge Young (9-2)
For my parlay at UFC Kansas City, I'm backing Da'Mon Blackshear and Evan Elder to get their hands raised on Saturday.
Blackshear is taking on Alatengheili, and this is a good matchup for Blackshear to get the win. Blackshear is a great grappler and wrestler, and that has been a problem for Alatengheili in his career. Blackshear should be able to control Alatengheili and likely find a submission win.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Elder to beat Young, who is taking this fight on short notice. Elder has looked good in the UFC, while Young is just 1-1 in his last two and doesn't seem to be a UFC-caliber fighter. I like Elder to go out there and control Young on the ground -- he could even finish him in the later rounds, as Young's cardio will be a concern here.
UFC Kansas City Bet: Da'Mon Blackshear & Evan Elder parlay (-123)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Kansas City card.
- Chris Gutierrez (-135)
- Timothy Cuamba (+110)
- Randy Brown by decision (+100)
- Da'Mon Blackshear & Evan Elder parlay (-123)
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