This article is part of our MMA Barometer series.
The McGregor saga continues as UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos was forced to pull out of this weekend's UFC 196 main event. This seems to be a pattern with McGregor's opponents and naturally there was no shortage of fighters willing to step up to face McGregor on less than two weeks notice. Some of the names included No. 4-ranked UFC lightweight Tony Ferguson, No. 9-ranked UFC lightweight Donald Cerrone and No. 3-ranked UFC bantamweight Urijah Faber. The UFC brass ended up settling on No. 5-ranked UFC lightweight Nate Diaz, who called out McGregor after a dominant victory over top five lightweight Michael Johnson in December. One of the most interesting aspects of this fight is it will take place in the UFC welterweight division at 170 lbs., two weight classes above the featherweight division in which McGregor is the champion.
The jump up in two weight classes is unprecedented in the UFC, and could pose problems for McGregor. The one advantage he has in this situation is that Diaz generally competes in the lightweight division so it isn't a "true welterweight" McGregor will fight on Saturday night. One of the biggest questions is whether McGregor's power will translate with the jump in weight class. Will he have the same ability and knockout power against fighters who don't weigh only 145 pounds? If McGregor is unable to put away Diaz, this fight will become very dangerous for the featherweight champion. Diaz's volume style of striking will be hard to deal with over five rounds and could take its toll on McGregor's stamina. There's always the possibility McGregor's leg kicks could give Diaz trouble over five rounds, as Diaz is notorious for staying heavy on his lead leg in his stance, much like in his fight against Rafael dos Anjos. It will be an interesting style matchup of Diaz's boxing and McGregor's kickboxing.
The biggest challenge facing McGregor will be if the fight goes to the ground. Diaz has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and holds some truly incredible submission victories over the likes of Jim Miller, Takanori Gomi, and Kurt Pellegrino. McGregor has shown holes in his game on the ground, particularly against Chad Mendes. If he finds himself on the bottom against Diaz it is unlikely he will be able to escape as easily as he did against Mendes. Diaz is a higher level grappler and is much larger than Mendes. McGregor does train with Gunnar Nelson who is an elite grappler in the welterweight division, but it will be interesting to see how the fight plays out if Diaz does not want to remain standing for the entire contest.
All things considered, it seems like McGregor's will have plenty of power for a fight with a true lightweight. He will also hold a speed advantage over Diaz. It will certainly be an interesting fight between two tough fighters, but McGregor has delivered on everything he has said so far in his UFC career, so who are we to doubt him now?
As always, below is your MMA barometer with rising, falling, and check status fighters.
Rising
Derek Brunson
Currently the No. 11-ranked UFC middleweight, Brunson is enjoying a four-fight winning streak and has won six of his seven fights inside the Octagon. Brunson is one of the most athletic fighters in the division and has a great combination of power and finishing instinct. He has won his last three fights by KO/TKO in the first round, and in his last fight against Roan Carneiro, once Carneiro tried to take the fight to the ground, Brunson unleashed a salvo of punches that will make any middleweight think twice before accepting a fight against Brunson. Brunson's athleticism helps him to be extremely successful in the striking department, and it also allows him to defend takedowns to keep the fight on the feet. Brunson has defended every takedown attempted by opponents in his seven-fight UFC career, and that includes a contest with dominant Cuban wrestler Yoel Romero. In fact, Brunson took down Romero three times in that fight. Brunson seems to have found a recipe for success inside the Octagon, and he will look to continue that success against a top-ten opponent in his next fight. Brunson won his last fight on Feb. 21, and the No. 9-ranked UFC middleweight, Gegard Mousasi, soundly beat Thales Leites last weekend in London. It seems like a matchup between the pair would make sense and be a fan-pleasing fight, as both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing.
Next Fight: TBA
Ilir Latifi
Latifi came onto the UFC scene in 2013 when he stepped in on a few days notice to replace Alexander Gustafsson in a main event fight against Gegard Mousasi in Sweden. This was a case of too much too soon for Latifi, and he dropped a lopsided three-round unanimous decision to Mousasi. However, Latifi has won four of five fights since then. Amazingly, out of those five fights none have made it out of the first round. Latifi was a member of the Swedish national team, so he has a solid wrestling base which has made virtually all of his opponents choose to stand up with Latifi. He has not been taken down in his UFC career. Even though the best chance for his opponents might be standing up, they are not out of the woods by simply staying upright. Latifi is incredibly strong and possesses great knockout power in his hands, as was displayed when he clipped Chris Dempsey with a short right hand in the first round that knocked him out cold. The only question mark for Latifi is his gas tank because none of his fights have gone long enough to show his conditioning. Unfortunately, his next fight against Gian Villante will probably not shed light on Latfi's conditioning. Villante isn't exactly a cardio machine and is known for his stand up power, so it is very possible this could be another one round fight for Latifi. This will be a tough fight and a difficult test for Latifi, and if he can secure his third straight win, it could propel him into the top 15 of the UFC light heavyweight division.
Next fight: Gian Villante, UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz (March 5, 2016)
Johnny Case
Case has won all four of his UFC appearances with two finishes during his winning streak. He is a well-rounded fighter who has wrestled since the age of four. Along with a solid wrestling base, Case has excellent movement and footwork, which was put on display in his fight in Mexico with Francisco Trevino. Case curiously switched camps from Alliance MMA, one of the best gyms in the world, to Power MMA, so it will be interesting to see if he continues his success after switching camps. He has an intriguing matchup next when he faces off with another rising star in the lightweight division in Jake Matthews. Each fighter is very well rounded and both have four fights in the UFC. Case will look to make it five in a row on March 19 and move into the top fifteen of the lightweight division.
Next Fight: Jake Matthews, UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir (March 19, 2016)
Check Status
Hector Lombard
Lombard has not competed in the UFC since January 2015 due to a violation of the UFC's performance enhancing drug policy. Before testing positive, Lombard had won three fights in a row and was poised to get a UFC welterweight title shot. After testing positive, his January 2015 victory over Josh Burkman was overturned to a no contest, and Lombard was suspended from competition for a year. Lombard is now reinstated and will look to jump right back into the mix at 170 lbs. against No. 9-ranked UFC welterweight Neil Magny. It did not come as a surprise to most people that Lombard tested positive for performance enhancing drugs based on his physique, so it will be interesting to see if he has maintained his striking power and if he will be able to use his judo as effectively as he has in the past. Magny is a long, rangy opponent with excellent cardio, so this should be a good barometer to see where Lombard stands in the division following his suspension. If he is able to soundly defeat Magny and prove he is the Hector Lombard of old, then he should quickly climb the rankings in the UFC welterweight division.
Next Fight: Neil Magny, UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir (March 19, 2016)
Falling
Diego Sanchez
Saturday should possibly be the last fight in the long, illustrious career of Diego Sanchez. He is a veteran of some 21 UFC fights, and he has put on some of the most memorable shows in UFC history. Sanchez will always be a fan favorite for his aggressive style and willingness to throw down with anybody in the Octagon, but after dropping three of his last four fights at two different weight classes, it may be time to hang up the gloves. Sanchez has a wild, brawling style that is fan friendly, but does him no favors as far as physical health and brain injury. Sanchez's last nine fights have gone to decision, and his unbeatable will almost works against him as he refuses to quit even when he has taken an insane amount of punishment. Sanchez undoubtedly still has the ability to put on fan pleasing fights, but it doesn't seem as if he is able to beat upper echelon fighters. His best strategy these days seems to be to entice the other fighter into a brawl and throw until somebody drops. This may be advantageous as far as scoring for daily fantasy, but it does not generally result in victories for Sanchez at this point. His next contest is against an always-game Jim Miller and should be an interesting matchup between two UFC veterans. However, don't expect Miller to stand up and bang with Sanchez. Miller will likely want to take the fight to the ground and turn it into a grappling contest between two high level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners. If Sanchez is not able to best Miller on Saturday, hopefully he will call it a career and stop taking unnecessary damage, as he has nothing left to prove.
Next Fight: Jim Miller, UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz (March 5, 2016)
Anderson Silva
After his last two appearances, it is clear that the Anderson Silva of old is gone forever. This is not to say that Silva is not capable of being a top ten UFC middleweight, but he is no longer a championship contender. Silva showed flashes of his old brilliance in his fight with Michael Bisping last Saturday, particularly with the flying knee toward the end of the third round and the front kick in the fifth round. However, when Silva had his back to the fence and dropped his hands as he has done in the past, Bisping was able to land shots and score against Silva. When Silva was the champion he likely would have avoided theses strikes, but it seems like his reflexes are a bit slower at the present time. Some may try to say Silva tested positive for PEDs and he can't take them anymore so he is not the same fighter, but I think it is attributed more to Silva being 40 years old and father time catching up with the greatest UFC fighter of all time. Another problem Silva is facing is his apparent inability to focus for a five round fight. When he did not drop his hands and back up to the fence, Silva seemed to be in control of the fight against Bisping, but he seemed to want to not take the fight seriously for most of the contest and it cost him on the scorecards at the end of the fight. This was the same problem he faced in his first bout with Chris Weidman, when he was essentially disrespecting Weidman and ended up on the wrong end of a highlight reel knockout. Silva needs to realize he does not have the same abilities as when he was a younger fighter and take the fights seriously in order to be successful. If he can focus for 25 minutes and fight hard, he should be able to remain a top-ten UFC middleweight. He has called for a rematch with Bisping in Brazil, but in order to get back on track it may be in his best interests to fight an older fighter like Vitor Belfort or Lyoto Machida.
Next Fight: TBA
Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante
After becoming the Strikeforce light heavyweight champion before coming to the UFC, "Feijao" has had a disappointing UFC career. He has dropped four of five fights since coming over from Strikeforce, and at the age of 35 there is not much time to turn his career around. The bizarre part of Feijao's UFC career is he has not attempted a takedown in any of his five fights. This is odd because he holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and if keeping all fights standing is not working, it seems it would make sense to change the strategy. It is understandable to stay standing with dominant wrestlers like Patrick Cummins and Ryan Bader, but to not attempt a takedown against Ovince Saint Preux is ludicrous, particularly after seeing how Glover Teixeira handled Saint Preux on the ground. If Feijao followed Teixeira's blueprint, it is possible he could have ground down Saint Preux over the course of the fight and submitted him in the later rounds, much like Teixeira was able to do. If Feijao wants to try to get back to the success he enjoyed in Strikeforce, he may need to change his strategy and rely on his ground game. It will be interesting to see how he changes his game plan and how long he remains on the UFC roster if he does not get a win under his belt in the near future.
Next Fight: TBA
