This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 91 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 91 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Maheshate Hayisaer (9-3-0) v. Gabriel Benitez (23-11-0)
Hayisaer Maheshate - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Gabriel Benitez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun way to start the night. I expect both these guys to come out wanting to brawl, leaving one out cold on the canvas. Benitez's chin worries me as he has been knocked out in two of his last three losses, the other being a submission. Look for Maheshate to get back in the win column in a big way. He is an excellent pick for all DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Mahashate
Ivana Petrovic (6-1-0) v. Na Liang (19-7-0)
Ivana Petrovic - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
Na Liang - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds for this fight would likely be much closer if Na had not been knocked out in three straight fights. Petrovic has only seven fights to her name, and her only UFC fight resulted in a loss. Until I see more from both fighters, I grade this closer to a pick 'em' and will ride with the dog.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Liang
James Llontop (14-2-0) v. Chris Padilla (13-6-0)
James Llontop - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Chris Padilla - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, but Llontop has a considerable edge in the opposition faced. It is hard to predict what to expect from two lesser-known debutants. However, Llontop looked phenomenal in his Contender Series fight and is my pick to win.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Llontop
Ketlen Souza (13-4-0) v. Marnic Mann (6-2-0)
Ketlen Souza - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Marnic Mann - Height: 5'0" - Reach: 64" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Both of these ladies were utterly destroyed in their debuts. Mann was controlled for fifteen minutes, while Souza was immediately put on the mat and submitted early in the first round. Souza is the obvious choice on paper, but it isn't easy to expect much from either fighter until we see more. Souza is the pick, but I would be wary of using either fighter for DFS.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Souza
Don'Tale Mayes (10-6-0) v. Caio Machado (8-2-1)
Don'Tale Mayes - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 81" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Caio Machado - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Machado looked good in his debut, although it ended with a debatable decision loss. On the other end, Mayes has lost two of his last three but showed better urgency from the bell in his most recent fight. Mayes will likely only win if he gets the knockout, but I expect this to be close until the fight ends. I do not see this scoring high without a finish in the first two rounds.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Machado
Austin Hubbard (15-7-0) v. Michal Figlak (18-1-0)
Austin Hubbard - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 15 wins
Michal Figlak - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Figlak lost his UFC debut after being controlled for most of the fight, while Hubbard moved to 3-5 in the UFC after getting submitted midway through the second round in his most recent fight. I expect a lot of action in this fight, and if Hubbard avoids getting finished, I see him getting enough work done on the mat to score the upset. I like Hubbard a lot for DFS on a card where favorites could once again reign supreme.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Hubbard
Rani Yahya (28-11-1) v. Victor Henry (23-6-0)
Rani Yahya - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 28 wins
Victor Henry - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Fighting Yahya is pretty self-explanatory. He will continually look for traps and submissions, as he does not have a single knockout to his name. Henry has shown his skillset and toughness over his four UFC fights, going 2-1 with a no-contest. I expect Henry to have little issue handing Yahya his second loss in a row and twelfth of his career.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Henry
Tim Means (33-15-1) v. Uros Medic (9-2-0)
Tim Means - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 25 finishes in 33 wins
Uros Medic - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Means looked sensational last time out, ending a three-fight losing streak with a massive third-round knockout. Medic was on the opposite side, losing in the second after being dominated on the mat for nearly two full rounds and then submitted. I would give Means the edge in the fight if I knew he would use his ground game. However, he has become much more comfortable striking, which I expect to hurt him in this fight. Medic is excellent on the feet and will be coming for that knockout early.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Medic
Jonathan Pearce (14-5-0) v. David Onama (11-2-0)
Jonathan Pearce - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
David Onama - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the toughest fights to pick on the card. I would recommend having shares of both in GPP contests. They equally have impressive ground games, but Pearce's is slightly better. I would also give Pearce the edge in striking, particularly with ground-and-pound. Pearce is an excellent DFS scorer and should have no issue racking up takedowns in this one. That said, Onama proved last fight he is no slouch and cannot be counted out. Expect the winner to score well in this fight.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Pearce
Jhonata Diniz (14-7-0) v. Austen Lane (12-4-0)
Jhonata Diniz - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
Austen Lane - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Someone is getting knocked out in this fight, likely in Round 1. This is a must-target for GPP contests. Due to Lane getting knocked out in under two minutes in his most recent fight, my pick is for Diniz, but I would not be surprised by either getting the finish.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Diniz
Karine Silva (17-4-0) v. Ariane Lipski (17-8-0)
Karine Silva - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
Ariane Lipski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: I will continue to ride Silva to the top. She is ferocious and a problem in this division. Unfortunately for Lipski, she is the next pawn to get dismantled by Karine "Killer" Silva. Silva is my lock on the slate for all contests.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Silva
Ryan Spann (21-9-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (15-3-0)
Ryan Spann - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling (Excellent standing guillotine)
~ 18 finishes in 21 wins
Bogdan Guskov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another good fight to target for GPP contests, as someone is likely to get finished early. Spann will be the obvious choice for most, given his much more experience against top competitors in the division. However, Guskov can be scary, and if he avoids getting hit straight on, he can record an upset. I expect Spann to pull this one out, but I will have my shares of Guskov.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Spann
Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1) v. Alex Perez (24-8-0)
Matheus Nicolau - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
Alex Perez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: I believe this fight will happen when I see both fighters standing in the Octagon. Perez has more canceled fights than just about anyone in the division and has known weight issues. If this fight happens, I would give Perez an edge in volume and power. Nicolau should have the edge everywhere else. He also will have a considerable edge in striking defense and should win the fight. However, even over five rounds, he may not make the optimal, as he typically does not score well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 91 Pick: Nicolau
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
