This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 89 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Mohammed Usman (10-2-0) v. Michael Parkin (8-0-0)
Mohammed Usman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Michael Parkin - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: I think this will be a battle of volume, as I do not see a knockout being likely. Parkin throws more and has slightly better striking defense. Without a finish in the first or second, a lower score for DFS is likely.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Parkin
Igor da Silva (8-0-0) v. Andre Lima (7-0-0)
Igor da Silva - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Andre Lima - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a pure GPP fight. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts after a win on the Contender Series. I would give Lima the edge on the feet and da Silva the edge on the mat. I will side with Lima to pull off a close win.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Lima
Montserrat Rendon (6-0-0) v. Darya Zheleznyakova (8-1-0)
Montserrat Rendon - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 0 finishes in 6 wins
Darya Zheleznyakova - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another close fight. Zheleznyakova is making her debut but looks more aggressive and likely to record a finish. Rendon does not look like she belongs in the UFC and has zero finishes to her name. I like the newcomer to come out on top.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Zheleznyakova
Steven Nguyen (9-1-0) v. Jarno Errens (13-5-1)
Steve Nguyen - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Jarno Errens - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Errens has lost both of his UFC fights convincingly. After winning two consecutive Contender Series fights, Nguyen is finally getting his shot in the UFC. He looks to be better everywhere and should have a successful debut. I like him for all contests.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Nguyen
Miles Johns (13-2-0) v. Cody Gibson (19-9-0)
Miles Johns - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
Cody Gibson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Though Gibson arguably won his most recent fight, he lost unanimously and moved to 1-4 in the UFC. Johns should win this fight, as he has fought the better competition and is the better overall fighter. However, he likely does not score well without a finish, as he fights defensively and slowly.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Johns
Ricardo Ramos (16-5-0) v. Julian Erosa (28-11-0)
Ricardo Ramos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Julian Erosa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 23 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a potential bonus-earning fight, as a finish is expected. While either could record a knockout or submission, Ramos is better defensively and the better grappler. Ramos makes an excellent play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Ramos
Trey Ogden (16-6-0) v. Kurt Holobaugh (20-7-0)
Trey Ogden - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Kurt Holobaugh - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a low-level fight that I do not expect much from. Each only has one win in the UFC. Holobaugh likely has the edge on the feet, while Ogden has the edge on the mat. The fight should be close, but I will side with Ogden to win with takedowns and control.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Ogden
Luis Pajuelo (8-1-0) v. Fernando Padilla (15-5-0)
Luis Pajuelo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Fernando Padilla - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Pajuelo is making his UFC debut after a win on the Contender Series. He is scary on the feet and will be live for a knockout throughout. Padilla has fought slightly better competition and is dangerous everywhere. If he gets this to the mat, I would not be surprised to see him submitting Pajuelo.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Padilla
Billy Quarantillo (18-5-0) v. Youssef Zalal (13-5-1)
Billy Quarantillo - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Youssef Zalal - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Zalal is dangerous everywhere, particularly on the mat. However, Quarantillo has the takedown defense and wrestling to avoid dangerous situations. He also has the volume and cardio to cause issues for Zalal throughout the fight. Quarantillo is one of my favorite plays for the slate.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Quarantillo
Payton Talbott (7-0-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (9-1-0)
Payton Talbott - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Cameron Saaiman - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun striking match, and I would not be surprised to see one of them knocked out. I do not think Talbott has faced the same level of competition, and Saaiman should be the one pressuring forward. Having shares of both fighters for GPP contests is a must.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Saaiman
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0) v. AJ Dobson (7-2-0)
Edmen Shahbazyan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
AJ Dobson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Dobson can succeed if he initiates and succeeds with takedowns. However, Shahbazyan should be better everywhere and has made a career of beating guys he should beat. This one is no exception, and I like Shahbazyan for all contests.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Shahbazyan
Karl Williams (9-1-0) v. Justin Tafa (7-3-0)
Karl Williams - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 9 wins
Justin Tafa - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Tafa by knockout or Williams by anything. Tafa should have his takedown defense tested over and over in this one. Williams would be wise to shoot early and often, as he would have a considerable edge on the mat and likely keep Tafa there for several minutes at a time.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Williams
Amanda Ribas (12-4-0) v. Rose Namajunas (11-6-0)
Amanda Ribas - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Rose Namajunas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a solid fight that likely leads to a close decision. Namajunas looked better in her last fight but still does not seem back to her old self. Ribas scored an excellent knockout over a top prospect in her last fight and appears to be the one rising right now. I like Ribas to keep it going and she will be a part of my lineups for cash and GPPs.
UFC Vegas 89 Pick: Ribas
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
