This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 98 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 98 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $150k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Brandon Royval (16-7-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (16-0-0)
DK Salaries: Royval ($7,200), Taira ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Royval (+180), Taira (-220)
Undefeated as a professional and one of the flyweight division's better prospects, Taira will be making his seventh UFC appearance. The first five were against lesser competition, and his most recent fight against Alex Perez in June ended midway through Round 2 after Perez suffered a knee injury. Taira definitely has top-five upside at 125 pounds, but we really have zero idea how he's going to look when the competition level rises. The fight against Perez was competitive prior to the stoppage.
Royval might not be a legitimate contender, but he's fought for the UFC Flyweight Championship and is coming off his best performance to date, a split decision win over Brandon Moreno in February in hostile territory. Royval looked great in that bout, and I absolutely think he deserved to win. That said, he's in a tough spot. He fought champion Alexandre Pantoja less than a year ago and was routed in a unanimous decision defeat. Quite a few things would have to go right for Royval to get a second championship chance any time soon.
Things have changed for Royval of late. He never landed more than 40 significant strikes in any of his first seven UFC bouts. Then he took back-to-back five-round fights, and his volume went through the roof. He landed 111 significant strikes against Pantoja and 145 against Moreno. He's always been durable, having been knocked out just once in 23 professional bouts, and I like him much better employing this new aggressive style. I could see him giving Taira some problems on the feet.
The greatest challenge for Royval will be remaining upright. His 40 percent takedown defense is woeful. He allowed three takedowns to Moreno and eight to Pantoja. He gave up eight to Rogerio Bontorin back in the day and four to Tim Elliott in his UFC debut. It's a major, major concern. Taira is very physically strong. He's taken down all but one of his six UFC opponents. The one fight he failed was against Carlos Hernandez. He picked up a knockdown and closed that bout with a 33-2 edge in terms of total strikes landed before scoring the knockout win 55 seconds into Round 2.
Royval's two-inch edge in height will help, but it's Taira who has a two-inch edge in reach. The latter is comfortable crashing the pocket and mixing things up, even if his striking game lacks fluidity at times. Taira won't be 25 years of age until January, so it's reasonable to expect legitimate improvements on a fight-by-fight basis.
As good as Taira is, he's still very young, and I expect some struggles along the way. The vast majority of fights at flyweight are super competitive, and we are getting a very generous number on Royval here. I can see a scenario in which he gets blitzed early on, survives, and puts it on Taira in the late rounds, much as he did against Moreno. I didn't think Perez had the physical skill to defeat Tatsuro, and I couldn't get behind the underdog in that spot, but I can here. Royval is trending the right direction of late, and the price tag is simply too good to ignore.
THE PICK: Royval
Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Brad Tavares (20-10-0) v. Jun Yong Park (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($7,700), Park ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (+160), Park (-190)
This fight was due to take place in June, but Park wasn't medically cleared following the weigh-ins and it had to be postponed. I'm assuming it was a minor issue and shouldn't impact the outcome here.
Set to turn 37 years of age this coming December, Tavares is clearly running out of time. He's just 1-3 in his past four fights dating back to July 2022, with the lone victory coming against a washed-up Chris Weidman. Strictly a decision fighter at this stage of his career, Tavares doesn't have a stoppage win in six-plus years.
Park should be entering on a five-fight winning streak. He ran off four straight victories from May 2022 to July 2023 and then fought Andre Muniz last December. Park lost via split decision but it appeared for all the world that he won. No spring chicken himself at age 33, Park's roster spot would appear much more secure than that of Tavares.
Tavares is a pure brawler at this stage of his career. He hasn't landed a takedown in more than six years. Unfortunately for Brad, that seems like the wrong game plan against Park. Tavares is willing to eat a blow in order to land two of his own. I wouldn't call him a high-volume striker, but he's capable of stringing together combinations under the right circumstances. The issue for Tavares is that Park is super durable. He's been finished via strikes just once in 23 professional bouts and he typically eats whatever is thrown his way without issue and continues to push forward.
Park is also deceptively athletic. He has six career wins via submission, including three of his last four victories. He's not an offensive wrestler by any means, but he's capable of landing a well-timed takedown here and there before going to work on the mat.
Durability figures to be a massive factor in this fight. I expect a back-and-forth brawl. I could envision a scenario in which Tavares is a little quicker, but I think Park has more power and definitely has more ways to win.
He also appears to be pretty reasonably priced. Tavares' win condition at this stage of his career is almost certainly via decision and Park has a significant durability edge. This was a pretty easy pick.
THE PICK: Park
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (21-2-1) v. Rafa Garcia (16-3-0)
DK Salaries: Dawson ($9,500), Garcia ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Dawson (-395), Garcia (+310)
Undefeated (8-0-1) in his first nine UFC bouts, Dawson was primed to make a run up the rankings at 155 pounds. Then he was knocked out by Bobby Green in 33 seconds last October as a massive favorite and it all changed. Yes, Dawson rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Joe Solecki in June, but the Green setback seems to have really put a damper on Grant's long-term appeal. The good news is that this again looks like another easy spot for him, a least on paper.
The definition of roster depth, Garcia is 4-3 in seven UFC bouts. He's struggled against better competition and beaten up on lesser foes. His most recent outing was a unanimous decision win over 42-year-old Clay Guida in April. Again, Rafa has enough tricks up his sleeve to handle fringe-roster fighters, but Dawson is much more than that.
This is a battle of two grapplers. Both land exactly 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes. In the Guida fight against a fellow wrestler, Garcia scrapped the takedown completely. He attempt just one -- it failed -- and instead went about beating Clay up on the feet. He landed 141 significant strikes, by far a career-best mark. He may need that type of output once against because Dawson is more than a one-trick pony.
Dawson has a massive edge in terms of physicality and explosiveness. He's the better man from top position and has made a living of racking up control time en route to decision victories. Heck, he controlled Solecki for 13:46 of the 15-minute bout. Even if Garcia is able to get Grant down, I'm not all that confident he will be able to keep him there.
All that said, the main reason I can't get behind Garcia is his lack of power. He has just one knockout win in 18 professional fights. He's not going to put up insane volume like he did against Guida, and when push comes to shove I think Dawson is the better wrestler.
The price seems high at first glance, but it's difficult to envision a path to victory for Garcia unless he is light years ahead of Dawson in the grappling game. Grant's durability isn't an issue, either, being knocked out just twice in his career. My guess is Dawson wins the vast majority of the striking exchanges, lands a couple takedowns, and takes a decision. The over seems like a good bet here given Garcia has never been stopped as a professional.
THE PICK: Dawson
Welterweight
Daniel Rodriguez (17-5-0) v. Alex Morono (24-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,900), Morono ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-200), Morono (+165)
This fight between two aging veterans makes all the sense in the world and I'm actually surprised they hadn't crossed paths with each other prior.
Entering having lost three in a row, Rodriguez is just about out of time. Those setbacks came against Kelvin Gastelum, Ian Garry, and Neil Magny, with the Gastelum fight, the most recent, taking place at middleweight after Kelvin couldn't get down to 171 pounds. D-Rod hasn't been dealt an easy hand and I like the idea of the company giving him one more chance.
Morono is theoretically in better shape, but not by much. He enters having alternated losses and wins in his past six bouts dating back to July 2022. Alex's toughness is legendary and he'll fight for your dollar each and every time out, but I wonder if all the wars he's been in over the years are starting to catch up to him.
Both these guys are one-dimensional strikers with zero means of generating secondary offense. It's the main reason both have struggled as they have aged.
In the case of Rodriguez, he has very fast hands. His boxing would be made that much more effective if he mixed in some kicks here and there, but he simply won't do it. He's too predictable. His opposition knows what's coming. Rodriguez will still land his fair share of blows simply because he's talented, but he's missing a glorious chance to keep his opponents off balance. Set to turn 38 years of age on New Year's Eve, I don't expect anything to change moving forward regarding a potential game plan.
Morono's greatest issue is that he hasn't knocked anyone out since Donald Cerrone back in May 2021. He's very much a point fighter, which is fine if you land plenty of volume, but not the ideal route if you absorb a ton of damage in return, which Alex does most every single time out.
In this battle of stand-up specialists, it's Rodriguez who will enter with a two-inch edge in both height and reach.
This has all the makings of a 15-minute sparring match. Wrestling is the path to beating both of these guys, but neither have any offensive grappling in their arsenal. I'm typically out on Rodriguez at this stage of his career because one-dimensional boxers are impossible to rely on as they age, but Morono seems to be the perfect opponent to get Daniel back on track. I don't expect a prolonged winning streak, but I do expect him to emerge victorious and earn another fight with the company as a result.
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Other Bouts
Women's Strawweight
Julia Polastri (12-4-0) v. Cory McKenna (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Polastri ($8,300), McKenna ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Polastri (-135), McKenna (+115)
THE PICK: McKenna
Middleweight
Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0, 1NC) v. Josh Fremd (11-6-0)
DK Salaries: Alhassan ($8,400), Fremd ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Alhassan (-155), Fremd (+130)
THE PICK: Alhassan
Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0, 1NC) v. Jared Gooden (23-9-0)
DK Salaries: Njokuani ($8,600), Gooden ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Njokuani (-185), Gooden (+155)
THE PICK: Njokuani
Flyweight
C.J. Vergara (12-5-1) v. Ramazonbek Temirov (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vergara ($7,100), Temirov ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Vergara (+210), Temirov (-260)
THE PICK: Temirov
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce (14-6-0) v. Pat Sabatini (18-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pearce ($8,200), Sabatini ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Pearce (-130), Sabatini (+110)
THE PICK: Sabatini
Welterweight
Themba Gorimbo (13-4-0) v. Niko Price (16-7-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Gorimbo ($9,200), Price ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Gorimbo (-280), Price (+225)
THE PICK: Gorimbo
Heavyweight
Chris Barnett (23-8-0) v. Junior Tafa (5-3-0)
DK Salaries: Barnett ($6,800), Tafa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Barnett (+285), Tafa (-360)
THE PICK: Barnett
Bantamweight
Dan Argueta (9-2-0, 2NC) v. Cody Haddon (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Argueta ($7,500), Haddon ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Argueta (+155), Haddon (-185)
THE PICK: Haddon
Flyweight
Clayton Carpenter (7-0-0) v. Lucas Rocha (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Carpenter ($8,800), Rocha ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Carpenter (-190), Rocha (+160)
THE PICK: Carpenter
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
