This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 93 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 93 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Alex Perez (25-8-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Perez ($7,600), Taira ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Perez (+150), Taira (-180)
It's amazing what one strong performance can do for one's career. Perez entered as a late-notice replacement to face Matheus Nicolau in a main event less than two months ago despite the fact he had lost three in a row. Alex took full advantage of his opportunity, scoring a second-round knockout win. Now, at a minimum, he's going to get another main event payday for his troubles. The Nicolau fight was Perez's first win since June 2020, and he's now 32 years old, so forgive me if I don't believe this is a sign of things to come, but credit to him for coming through in a big spot.
Taira, one of the brightest prospects in the sport, gets his first headline gig with the UFC after winning each of his first five fights with the company and not breaking a sweat in the process. 24 years of age and a threat everywhere, Taira appears to be entirely worth of the hype that has surrounded him to date. Perez, even at this stage of his career, will represent his stiffest test to date by a country mile.
By far Perez's biggest edge in this fight is his experience against high-level opposition. He's been in the Octagon with the likes of Nicolau (twice), Muhammad Mokaev, Joseph Benavidez, former UFC Flyweight Champion Deiveson Figueiredo, and current UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja. Taira's best UFC win is over C.J. Vergara. The gap is real, and it's an area Perez should lean into because he's going to be outmatched most everywhere else.
Taira is an inch taller and has a five-inch reach edge. He's more athletic than Perez and fights far more physically. Perez's 82 percent takedown defense is strong, but we've seen him planted on his back in a couple key spots in the past. Taira has taken down four of his five opponents, and the lone one he didn't, Carlos Hernandez in his last fight, Tatsuro closed with a 44-2 edge (that's real) in total strikes landed. He didn't need to be wrestling.
That said, Perez would probably be comfortable on the ground because Taira is the much more technical boxer. Alex can get sucked into a brawl and wing a bunch of wild shots, and that isn't going to work here. Perez's striking accuracy is 45 percent. Taira, on the other hand, is up at 71 percent. The latter number is elite and a major concern for Perez in a five-round fight.
Perez is crafty and experienced, but it sure feels as if all his upset win over Nicolau did is lower Taira's price tag here, which is just fine if your a backer of his, which I am. The latter's DK salary seems very, very reasonable. I could see Perez seeing the final bell, but I think Taira wins.
THE PICK: Taira
Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-5-0, 1NC) v. Miles Johns (14-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Silva de Andrade ($8,200), Johns ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Silva de Andrade (+105), Johns (-125)
Silva de Andrade doesn't fight often (nine times since July 2017) and his record during that stretch is mediocre (5-4), but those setbacks came against Petr Yan, Rob Font, Lerone Murphy and Said Nurmagomedov. In other words, he's done pretty well when not tasked with facing high-end opposition. The Brazilian will be 39 years of age exactly one week after this event takes place, so Douglas would do well to try to step in the Octagon a bit more frequently if he hopes to make any sort of run in a loaded 135-pound division.
This makes for an interesting fight. I don't have Johns rated on the same level as the names I mentioned previously, but he's better than the type of names Silva de Andrade has defeated of late. Plus, Miles is in the midst of his best UFC run to date, going 4-1 (1NC) in his past half-dozen bouts.
Nearly a decade younger than Douglas, Johns should have an athleticism advantage. My main critique of Miles is that he don't have one single elite skill to fall back upon in the event of trouble. He's solid everywhere but has just three stoppage victories in the past seven years. He's turned into a point fighter, which is concerning considering he lands just 3.28 significant strikes per minute -- a low number for this weight class.
Silva de Andrade is ridiculously tough and has displayed legendary durability over the years, being stopped via strikes just once in 35 professional bouts. He's also been submitted just once. Douglas is absorbing more damage on the feet than I would prefer at this stage of his career, but that's what happens to aging fighters in this sport. The question is whether or not Johns can take advantage of it.
Flip a coin.
I'd feel much better about things if Johns was a bit more active on the feet, but his takedown defense is exceptional (85 percent) and as I mentioned earlier, Douglas is there to be hit. I'd be shocked if Johns is able to put Silva de Andrade away simply because I don't think there's going to be enough volume to do so, but I still think Johns will do enough to earn the decision.
THE PICK: Johns
Bantamweight
Brady Hiestand (8-2-0) v. Garrett Armfield (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Hiestand ($7,500), Armfield ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Hiestand (+150), Armfield (-180)
Still just 25 years of age and with all of nine professional bouts under his belt, Hiestand has won back-to-back fights on the heels of a split decision loss to Ricky Turcios in his UFC debut back in August 2021. If there's one main concern regarding Hiestand at this point, it's that he hasn't fought much, competing just once a year from 2020-2023. He is looking at nearly 14 months on the sidelines by the time this fight rolls around.
Armfield has followed a similar path, getting submitted by David Onama in his UFC debut back in July 2022 and picking up two straights wins since, taking a unanimous decision over Brad Katona in addition to knocking out Toshiomi Kazama last August. Armfield earned a reputation as a finisher on the regional scene prior to his company arrival and would appear to be more advanced than Hiestand in multiple areas.
Armfield should have a significant edge on the feet. A high-volume striker, Garrett is averaging a ridiculous 6.22 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing just 3.93 per 60 seconds. He's active and an underrated athlete. The question in this fight is whether or not he will be able to remain upright.
Hiestand is a pure decision fighter, and that is the result of the fact he leans almost entirely on his wrestling game for success. That said, his grappling game is legit. Averaging 4.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, Brady has a clear and obvious path to victory in this fight. He needs to spam takedown attempts over and over, especially considering Armfield has been dragged to the mat multiple times in two of his three UFC bouts. Katona landed 4-of-9 tries his last time out.
We all saw how great Katona looked last week. He's legit. And Armfield defeated him. Playing "MMA math" is a dangerous game, but Garrett's ability to win a fight in which he gave up four takedowns against a quality opponent is a great sign. Hiestand is going to have to control the vast majority of this bout on the mat in order to win, and as we've seen recently, judges simply aren't valuing ground control time and top position like they once did.
THE PICK: Armfield
Flyweight
Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) v. Joshua Van (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ulanbekov ($8,900), Van ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Ulanbekov (-225), Van (+185)
Ulanbekov was due to face Perez here, but when Alex was moved to the main event against Taira, the company wanted to keep Tagir on the card and inserted Van in his place.
Fresh off back-to-back submission wins over Cody Durden and Nate Maness, Ulanbekov has quietly won four of his first five UFC bouts and was deserving of the originally-scheduled step up in competition. Set to turn 33 years of age in early-July, I'm not sure how high Ulanbekov's ceiling is, but the early returns have been positive.
That said, sporting a 3-0 record in his UFC career, Van is no pushover. He took back-to-back decisions over Zhalgas Zhumagulov (split) and Kevin Borjas (unanimous) before knocking out Felipe Bunes in Round 2 this past January. At 22 years of age, Van is more than a decade younger than Ulanbekov, and that has generally been a big advantage over the years, especially in the lower weight classes.
These two guys go about things in an extremely different way. The one that is able to employ his style of fighting will almost certainly be the man that emerges victorious.
Like most Dagestani fighters, Ulanbekov employs a wrestling-heavy game plan. He averages 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, and perhaps more impressively, is landing a whopping 46 percent of his attempts. Van gave up two takedowns to Zhumagulov and one to Bunes, so he hasn't been flawless in remaining upright to date.
Van, on the other hand, has displayed the ability to keep an insane pace, thus landing a crazy amount of volume on the feet. He landed 120 total strikes against Zhumagulov, 156 against Borjas, and 83 against Bunes in less than ten minutes. All told, that equates to 9.08 significant strikes landed per minute. That number is obviously unsustainable, but Van's cardio has held up and in the small confines of the UFC Apex, and that type of volume has typically served competitors well.
Van is at risk of getting grounded for a good portion of this fight, but if he doesn't, he has the cardio and activity level I like to bet on. To be clear, I'd take Ulanbekov will all things being equal, but Van looks like exceptional value that is too good to pass on. I simply don't see a $1600 difference in salary between the two. On the money line, I'd have Ulanbekov more like -160 than -225.
THE PICK: Van
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov (15-1-0) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Aliskerov ($9,700), Trocoli ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Aliskerov (-1100), Trocoli (+700)
THE PICK: Aliskerov
Featherweight
Timothy Cuamba (8-2-0) v. Lucas Almeida (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Cuamba ($8,800), Almeida ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Cuamba (-205), Almeida (+170)
THE PICK: Cuamba
Flyweight
Asu Almabayev (19-2-0) v. Jose Johnson (16-8-0)
DK Salaries: Almabayev ($9,500), Johnson ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Almabayev (-550), Johnson (+410)
THE PICK: Almabayev
Flyweight
Jimmy Flick (17-7-0) v. Nate Maness (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Flick ($6,800), Maness ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Flick (+370), Maness (-485)
THE PICK: Maness
Welterweight
Josh Quinlan (6-2-0, 1NC) v. Adam Fugitt (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Quinlan ($8,300), Fugitt ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Quinlan (-125), Fugitt (+105)
THE PICK: Fugitt
Women's Flyweight
Carli Judice (3-1-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Judice ($7,200), Fernandes ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Judice (+160), Fernandes (-190)
THE PICK: Fernandes
Featherweight
Jeka Saragih (14-3-0) v. Westin Wilson (16-9-0)
DK Salaries: Saragih ($9,300), WIlson ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Saragih (-355), Wilson (+280)
THE PICK: Saragih
Women's Strawweight
Josefine Knutsson (7-0-0) v. Julia Polastri (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Knutsson ($9,100), Poastri ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Knutsson (-245), Poastri (+200)
THE PICK: Knutsson
Featherweight
Melquizael Costa (20-7-0) v. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-11-0)
DK Salaries: Costa ($8,500), Nuerdanbieke ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Costa (-200), Nuerdanbieke (+165)
THE PICK: Nuerdanbieke
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 93 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
