This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 105 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 105 DFS picks are set for Saturday, April 5, with breakdowns of the top fights on DraftKings and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Featherweight
Josh Emmett (19-4-0) v. Lerone Murphy (15-0-1)
DK Salaries: Emmett ($6,900), Murphy ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Emmett (+260), Murphy (-325)
Emmett would appear to be running out of time considering he turned 40 years of age in March, but he's won six of his last eight dating back to March 2019, and the two setbacks during that stretch came against since-vacated UFC Featherweight Champion Ilia Topuria and a perennial contender in Yair Rodriguez. Emmett's last fight was a 118-second one-punch knockout win over Bryce Mitchell in December 2023.
I certainly don't love the fact that Emmett took upwards of a year-and-a-half off following the win, however. You can make a run in divisions like heavyweight in your early-40s, but it's exceedingly difficult in the lower weight classes, especially one as loaded as featherweight.
Murphy fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split draw in his UFC debut back in September 2019, and he's won seven in a row since. His two most recent wins, over Dan Ige and Edson Barboza, both via unanimous decision, were the two most impressive. Lerone is another guy that hasn't fought all that much. He competed once in 2019, once in 2020, twice in 2021, not at all in 2022, twice in 2023 and twice in 2024. Murphy does seem to be picking up the pace lately, however, which is a good sign.
Both these guys are strikers first and foremost, but both go about things in an entirety different way.
Murphy is typically slow and methodical. He can string together combinations once he gets going, but there's very little stopping power in his hands. In fact, five of his last six wins have come via decision.
That said, I will give him credit for adjusting the game plan in his win over Ige. Everyone knows Dan can't wrestle, so Murphy fired off five takedown attempts, landing three of them. He didn't do much with his positional advantage, but it was a nice visual for the judges in a fairly close fight.
Emmett, on the other hand, has massive power for the 145-pound division. His 12 knockdowns are the most in the history of the UFC featherweight division. He has five knockout wins with the company. More importantly, Emmett has displayed no durability issues during his career, being knocked out just once in 23 pro bouts, and that came against Jeremy Stephens back in 2018. If you are going to swing for the bleachers like Emmett does with every shot, you better be able to take a punch in return, and Josh has been able to do that thus far.
This is a classic case of the favorite being overvalued.
Murphy is six years younger than Emmett and a better athlete. He theoretically has more ways to win and deserves to be favored. But the gap between the two is far slimmer than the DraftKings Salaries and betting odds would lead you to believe.
I think the bigger blows are going to come from the Emmett side, and in an empty UFC Apex where judges typically value damage over volume, that will likely make a difference.
In my opinion, a fair line on this price would have been roughly Murphy -175. As is, you're overpriced by 150 points on the moneyline and thousands from a DFS standpoint. That's more than enough for me to roll the dice on the underdog.
THE PICK: Emmett
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Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Pat Sabatini (19-5-0) v. Joanderson Brito (17-4-1)
DK Salaries: Sabatini ($7,500), Brito ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Sabatini (+190), Brito (-230)
Sabatini has been inconsistent of late, going 2-2 in his last four bouts, but he won each of his first four fights with the company, so he's still in pretty good shape. The two setbacks were a fluky 69-second knockout to Damon Jackson back in September 2022 and a 90-second knockout to future title challenger Diego Lopes in November 2023. The durability is probably the biggest concern at this point.
Brito won five fights in a row from April 2022 to May 2024, all via stoppage. There were three knockouts and two submissions during that stretch, which primarily came against lesser competition. Brito traveled to Paris to face William Gomis in enemy territory last September, dropping a split decision that he probably deserved to win. Brito has all the physical gifts in the world. It's just a matter of putting it all together at this point.
Sabatini can look like a title contender in the instances in which he is able to get his grappling game going. He averages 3.97 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a whopping 44 percent of his tries. While that's all well and good, he's typically ineffective from top position. Sabatini averages just 1.94 significant strikes landed per minute. The ground-and-pound needs work, but I highly doubt it improves given Sabatini will be 35 years old this coming November.
Brito has more power and is a better overall striker. He's more explosive, particularly in short bursts. The Brazilian is also no slouch himself in the grappling department, averaging 3.08 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing an insane 68 percent of his attempts.
Brito is also, pound-for-pound, one of the strongest guys in the featherweight division. I don't see Sabatini being able to out-muscle Joanderson in tight, so he'll have to be sharp on his entries and make sure he doesn't allow Brito a chance to reverse the proceedings.
The durability, combined with Brito's brute strength is enough to sway me in the favor of the Brazilian. Any Sabatini win will likely be via decision, and in order for that to happen, he'll have to spend a ton of time in top position. I don't see it happening.
THE PICK: Brito
Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-5-0) v. Martin Buday (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Nzechukwu ($9,200), Buday ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (-310), Buday (+250)
Following a stretch from November 2021 to March 2024 in which he lost four of seven fights, Nzechukwu moved up to heavyweight last October. He has fought two times in his new weight class, knocking out both Chris Barnett and Lukasz Brzeski. The wins look great on paper and both were impressive, but the truth of the matter is that neither tells us anything about how Kennedy will fare in his new home against better competition. Buday is theoretically a step up, but not by much.
The Slovakian earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series back in October 2021. He has officially fought six times for the company, somehow going 5-1. Included in that stretch was a technical unanimous decision over Barnett and a split decision over Brzeski. Buday's lone stoppage win with the UFC was a submission of Josh Parisian. Set to turn 34 years of age in November, there's little reason to think Martin is anything more than low-end roster depth.
Nzechukwu weighed in for his fight against Brzeski at 236.5. He has the frame for the division at 6-foot-5, but he could theoretically be giving up upwards of 50 pounds to some of the guys he faces once you take into account the weight put on between weigh-in's and fight night. He has strong technical boxing skills and reasonable power, although I wouldn't call him a pure masher, especially at heavyweight.
The good news for Kennedy here is that I imagine he can get by Buday without doing very much. The latter is giving up six inches in reach to Nzechukwu, a massive number in what projects as a pure kickboxing match. Outside of one fluke performance against Jake Collier in which he landed 98 total strikes, Buday has never posted more than 66 significant strikes in any of his five other UFC bouts.
Kennedy obviously has more experience with the company, but he's also shown the ability to pile up the volume in the right circumstances. He dropped 106 significant strikes on Ovince Saint Preux, 95 on Nicolae Negumereanu and 82 on Carlos Ulberg. He's not a high-output guy every time we see him, but even a middling performance should be enough to get by Buday.
I'm not sure how Buday wins. The power he showed early in his career hasn't carried over to his UFC run, and he can't grapple.
My guess is that Kennedy takes a decision in what is a fairly boring fight.
THE PICK: Nzechukwu
Middleweight
Brad Tavares (20-11-0) v. Gerald Meerschaert (37-18-0)
DK Salaries: Tavares ($9,100), Meerschaert ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Tavares (-260), Meerschaert (+210)
These guys were born three days apart in December 1987. The loser, especially if it's Tavares, is probably done with the company.
Meerschaert isn't a household name for a number of reasons. He has kind of a boring style and is entirely reliant on his ground game for success. That said, his 11 submission wins are the most in UFC middleweight history, as are his dozen finishes. Meerschaert could walk away tomorrow having exceeded even the most optimistic expectations.
Tavares is in worse shape. He's won just one fight -- against Chris Weidman in a snoozer -- in his last five bouts dating back to July 2022. Of course, included in that stretch are fights against current UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus Du Plessis and a surging contender in Gregory Rodrigues, but that's another story.
I openly admit that Meerschaert did far better in his most recent fight against Reinier de Ridder in November than I expected. He gassed out badly in the second half of the fight and was eventually submitted early in Round 3, but I expected him to be blown out of the water, and that didn't happen.
Tavares is struggling of late because he has no clear way of damaging his opposition. He hasn't landed a takedown since July 6, 2018. His opponent that night? Israel Adesanya. That's a span of eight fights. Not that he would want to be rolling around with Meerschaert on the mat anyway.
On the feet, Brad is still capable of putting up some decent volume here and there, but he very rarely lands notable blows. The Weidman fight was a perfect example. Brad won because Chris simply accomplished less, not because he was effective. Now, you can beat Meerschaert simply by tiring him out and making him work, which I imagine is going to be Tavares' game plan, because nothing else makes sense.
The bottom line is that I can never lay -260 on Tavares at this stage of his career, and thus I will never pay north of $9,000 to insert him in my lineup. I expect minimal production if he wins, and even that's far from a guarantee relative to the price tag. I'd rather just roll the dice on Meerschaert.
THE PICK: Meerschaert
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Cortavious Romious (9-3-0) v. Chang Ho Lee (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Romious ($7,800), Lee ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Romious (+120), Lee (-140)
THE PICK: Lee
Middleweight
Torrez Finney (10-0-0) v. Robert Valentin (11-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Finney ($9,000), Valentin ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Finney (-245), Valentin (+200)
THE PICK: Finney
Flyweight
Ode Osbourne (12-8-0, 1NC) v. Luis Gurule (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Osbourne ($7,300), Gurule ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Osbourne (+205), Gurule (-250)
THE PICK: Gurule
Bantamweight
Davey Grant (16-7-0) v. Daniel Santos (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Grant ($7,700), Santos ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Grant (+125), Santos (-150)
THE PICK: Grant
Women's Flyweight
Diana Belbita (15-9-0) v. Dione Barbosa (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Belbita ($6,800), Barbosa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Belbita (+400), Barbosa (-550)
THE PICK: Barbosa
Welterweight
Rhys McKee (13-6-1) v. Daniel Frunza (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: McKee ($7,600), Frunza ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: McKee (+135), Frunza (-160)
THE PICK: Frunza
Women's Strawweight
Loma Lookboonmee (9-3-0) v. Istela Nunes (6-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Lookboonmee ($9,500), Nunes ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Lookboonmee (-600), Nunes (+430)
THE PICK: Lookboonmee
Bantamweight
Victor Henry (24-7-0, 1NC) v. Pedro Falcao (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Henry ($8,800), Falcao ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Henry (-205), Falcao (+170)
THE PICK: Henry
Women's Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos (11-6-0) v. Talita Alencar (5-1-1)
DK Salaries: Demopoulous ($8,000), Alencar ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Demopoulous (+100), Alencar (-120)
THE PICK: Demopoulous
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
