This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 102 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 102 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Jared Cannonier (17-8-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Cannonier ($7,600), Rodrigues ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Cannonier (+180), Rodrigues (-220)
Set to turn 41 years of age in March, Cannonier has lost three of his last five fights. Of course, the two victories during that stretch came over Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori. Cannonier joined the UFC more than a decade ago as a heavyweight. He then dabbled at 205 pounds before moving to middleweight for good in 2018. Jared keeps himself in excellent condition and appears to have plenty of gas left in the tank, but the days of him competing against the truly elite contenders the division has to offer have likely passed by him.
Rodrigues has won three in a row and five of six, so he's deserving of this step up in competition. It feels as if the Brazilian has been around forever, perhaps because of all the wars he has been in over the years. Rodrigues is no spring chicken himself, but at age 33, he's roughly eight years' Cannonier's junior.
As I mentioned early, a good portion of Rodrigues' early UFC run consistent of wild, back-and-forth brawls. He more than held his own in those situations, but I always felt he had to smarten up a bit if he was ever to go on a prolonged winning streak. Of late, he's done that.
Gregory is a much better grappler than his three career wins via submission would lead you to believe. He's averaging 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and is landing 41 percent of his shots -- both solid numbers. Rodrigues is heavy from top position and has excellent ground-and-pound.
He also game plans well for his competition. His last time out against Christian Leroy Duncan, a pure striker, Rodrigues fired off a dozen takedown attempts, landing four for 8:20 worth of control time. I expect a wrestling-heavy game plan here against Cannonier, who has landed three takedowns in his entire UFC career. For comparison's sake, Rodrigues has seven takedowns in his last three fights.
Jared has certainly faced the better level of competition and has gone the full five rounds in four of his last five fights. In those fights, Cannonier has landed 83, 241, 141 and 90 significant strikes. In other words, he's fully capable of getting in a striking rhythm and piling up the volume.
I think Cannonier has a better chance to win this fight that the odds indicate, but it's REALLY difficult to get behind a 40-year-old with a limited offensive arsenal. Rodrigues is going to have a huge edge on the mat, and he's shown improved awareness on the feet in terms of not getting into senseless brawls. He's the choice.
THE PICK: Rodrigues
Co-Main Event - Featherweight
Calvin Kattar (23-8-0) v. Youssef Zalal (16-5-1)
DK Salaries: Kattar ($6,800), Zalal ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Kattar (+310), Zalal (-395)
Kattar is in a tough spot. A fringe top-10 featherweight for quite a while, the Massachusetts native has lost three straight fights and is without a win in more than three years. He'll be 37 years of age in late-March and may very well need a win here to extend his time with the company.
Zalal has been a revelation in his second run with the company. This is a guy who was winless in (0-3-1) in four fights from October 2020 to August 2022 and was released in the process. He went back to the regional scene, dominated, and was given another chance with the UFC. He returned less than a year ago and has picked up three straight submission wins over Billy Quarantillo, Jarno Errens and Jack Shore -- those last two earned Zalal a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus.
Kattar's most recent setback against Aljamain Sterling was by far the most concerning performance to date. Yes, Aljo is a former UFC Bantamweight Champion, extremely physical and an excellent wrestler, but that fight was his featherweight debut, and he blew through Calvin as if he wasn't even there. Kattar allowed eight takedowns on 13 attempts, good for 10:43 worth of control time. It was one of the most lopsided three-round fights in recent memory.
Grappling is not Calvin's strength and never has been. The concern is that in this, the latter stages of his career, he's become more exploitable than ever in that area. Like Rodrigues in the main event, I expect Zalal, who is averaging a respectable 2.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, to shoot early and often. It's malpractice, quite frankly, if he doesn't.
Calvin's best chance of winning is to turn this into a prolonged kickboxing match. Kattar has always been willing to eat a punch in order to land two of his own. That strategy typically works terribly as you age, but it's not the worst play here against Zalal, who is a notoriously low-volume striker.
On the surface, this all seems pretty straightforward. Zalal is rolling. Kattar is coming off arguably the worst performance of his career. On top of that, there's an established way to beat him.
All that said, I can't get behind Zalal at his salary. As strong as he's looked of late, it's not enough to make him the second-highest priced fighter on the entire slate. If he was priced closer to $9,000, I'd probably be in. As is, on a card with virtually no underdogs I like outright, I'll roll the dice Kattar has one more strong performance left.
THE PICK: Kattar
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Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira (10-2-0) v. Andre Petroski (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($8,800), Petroski ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (-245), Petroski (+200)
One of the most decorated BJJ specialists in the history of the sport, Vieira has all of a dozen pro MMA fights under his belt at age 35. Seven of those have come in the UFC, and he's 5-2 with the company, which is pretty good considering he's a one-trick pony with little experience relative to his age. It's also worth noting that Vieira's two setbacks have came against quality competition in Chris Curtis and Anthony Hernandez. If Rodolfo is projected to handle an opponent, he has.
I've always had time for Petroski, but I acknowledge his 7-2 record in nine UFC bouts is a bit misleading. He's built that record against lesser competition. His best win with the company was against Gerald Meerschaert back in August 2023, and that came via split decision. Other than that, you're looking at wins over names like Dylan Budka and Josh Fremd. A victory over Vieira would be by far Petroski's most impressive to date.
As one would expect, Vieira's win condition is entirely dependent on getting his opposition to the mat. He's a much better submission specialist than he is a wrestler, but the Brazilian is averaging 4.18 takedowns per 15 minutes. I think that number oversells how effective a pure wrestler Vieira is, but he's taken down seven of his eight opponents, six of them multiple times.
Petroski's biggest weakness is a highly questionable chin. Three of his four career defeats have come via knockout. Luckily for him, that doesn't project to be an issue against Rodolfo, who has just one career KO win in his pro career and is averaging just a shade over three significant strikes landed per minute.
The main reason I'm having a difficult time getting to Petroski as an underdog pick is because I think there's a real chance his greatest strength -- his wrestling -- plays right into the greatest strength of Vieira.
Andre is averaging 3.91 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's a big, physical guy with questionable durability. Not only is Vieira sporting a 100 percent takedown defense, but even if Petroski is able to get him down, he's going to be in immediate trouble because Rodolfo is a massive submission threat, even off of his back.
You're basically hoping Petroski not only gets the takedown, but that he's also able to grind the clock away from top position and not get caught in something in the process. In a day and age when simply laying on your opponent doesn't get the job done anymore in the eyes of the judges, I'll take Vieira to eventually find a limb and earn the stoppage win.
THE PICK: Vieira
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Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill (17-14-0) v. Ketlen Souza (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Hill ($8,200), Souza ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Hill (-115), Souza (-105)
Now 40 years of age, Hill continues to go about her business, sporting a 4-2 record in her past half-dozen bouts dating back to August 2022. It should be noted that the two setbacks during that stretch, Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern, came against by far the best two opponents she faced. That came on the heels of a stretch in which she lost five of six. The fact Hill is still with the company (for a second stint) more than a decade after she originally debuted is remarkable.
Three fights into her UFC career at age 29, Souza began with a first-round submission defeat to Karine Silva. She has since rebounded to take a unanimous decision from Marnic Mann, in addition to earning a first-round submission of Yazmin Jauregui her last time out. Souza was upwards of a +400 underdog for that fight, and no one could have seen it ending in the fashion in which it did.
Hill is a stand-up specialist who keeps herself in elite physical shape. Her cardio is excellent, and her ability to pile up the volume on the feet is virtually unmatched in the division. Because her offensive game is so limited, it has aged pretty well. Angie sticks to one thing and rarely varies her method of attack. That has really limited her against better competition, but she's so good at it that she's had no issue defeating lower-level competition.
Where exactly Souza falls in the grand scheme of things remains to be seen. The Jauregui submission aside, Ketlen is known more for her striking skills. She has eight career wins via knockout in a division in which very few women have legitimate power. Souza might not be able to hang with Hill blow-for-blow, but it's possible, if not probable, that she lands the more damaging blows in an extended kickboxing match.
This has the look of a 15-minute sparring bout. If there's any grappling to come, my guess is it comes from Souza's side, but the smart money is on a stand-up affair.
This projects as a pure coin flip, which is exactly what the DK salaries and Vegas odds indicate. I'm going to take Souza simply because I think there's a strong chance she lands the more notable blows in the eyes of the judges, something that could very well be the difference in what will almost certainly be a close, three-round decision.
THE PICK: Souza
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0) v. Dylan Budka (7-4-0)
DK Salaries: Shahbazyan ($9,200), Budka ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Shahbazyan (-355), Bukda (+290)
THE PICK: Shahbazyan
Lightweight
Ismael Bonfim (20-4-0) v. Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-1)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($8,400), Sadykhov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-200), Sadykhov (+165)
THE PICK: Sadykhov
Featherweight
Connor Matthews (7-2-0) v. Jose Miguel Delgado (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Matthews ($7,200), Delgado ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (+235), Delgado (-290)
THE PICK: Delgado
Flyweight
Rafael Estevam (12-0-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Estevam ($9,300), Aguilar ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Estevam (-360), Aguilar (+285)
THE PICK: Estevam
Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim (16-1-0) v. Khaos Williams (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($8,900), Williams ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-225), Williams (+185)
THE PICK: Bonfim
Bantamweight
Vince Morales (16-8-0) v. Elijah Smith (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Morales ($7,100), Smith ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Morales (+150), Smith (-180)
THE PICK: Smith
Heavyweight
Valter Walker (12-1-0) v. Don'Tale Mayes (11-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Walker ($8,700), Mayes ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Walker (-225), Mayes (+185)
THE PICK: Walker
Women's Bantamweight
Julia Avila (9-3-0) v. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Avila ($6,700), Cavalcanti ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Avila (+340), Cavalcanti (-440)
THE PICK: Cavalcanti
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 102with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
