This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 100 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 100 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Neil Magny (29-13-0) v. Carlos Prates (20-6-0)
DK Salaries: Magny ($6,600), Prates ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Magny (+470), Prates (-650)
The UFC often appears to give very little thought to the main events of these Apex cards, but this one appears to make even less sense than usual.
Now 37 years of age, Magny turned back the clock in pulling a huge upset of Mike Malott in January. He was dominated that entire fight, only to find a knockout of his exhausted opponent with 15 seconds left. Never one to turn down a fight, Neil got back in there against rising prospect Michael Morales in August and was finished in just over four minutes. Magny's 33 fights and 22 wins are the most in UFC welterweight history.
Prates had mixed results early in his pro career, but he's been rolling the past half dozen years. He's won 10 in a row, including each of his first three UFC bouts, all via knockout. In August, Prates became the first man to ever stop Li Jingliang via strikes. To say it was an impressive performance would be a massive understatement.
I've maintained for years that Magny is one of the best in the history of the sport at tailoring his game plan to his opposition. If he was facing a striker, he'd grapple. If he was facing a wrestler, he'd use his stand-up skills. He wasn't worried about pandering to the judges or the fans, he just did what was necessary to win. Understandably, the adjustments have been harder to come by in the latter stages of his career. It's a pure miracle he isn't entering this fight having lost three in a row. I have enough respect for Magny to think he can still get past lower level competition, but Prates isn't that.
I don't really know how Magny wins this fight. Carlos can get sucked into a brawl at times and he absorbs too much damage on the feet (5.02 significant strikes absorbed per minute), but Neil absolutely isn't a high volume guy, especially at this stage of his career.
Prates' edge in terms of pure power is massive. I see him constantly and effectively pressuring Magny with zero concern for the return strikes coming back his way. Neil's durability is nowhere near what it once was.
Being a five-round fight, maybe Magny can survive some VERY hairy moments early on and outwork Prates late, much like he did in the three-round fight against Malott, but my guess is that Carlos overwhelms him in the stand-up and eventually finds a finish, much the way Morales did his last time out.
This has the feel of the the UFC sacrificing Magny in hopes of building up a future contender in Prates.
THE PICK: Prates
Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) v. Miles Johns (15-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Garbrandt ($7,900), Johns ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (+125), Johns (-150)
The former UFC Bantamweight Champion, Garbrandt briefly got things straightened out in 2023, taking a unanimous decision from Trevin Jones and knocking out Brian Kelleher. He then got a significant jump up in competition against Deiveson Figueiredo this past April and was predictably overwhelmed, getting submitted late in Round 2. Cody is now 33 years of age and has had a boatload of injuries over the years. I find it impossible to believe Garbrandt will ever get anywhere near the level of success we've seen in the past, even if he puts forth a strong performance here and there.
Johns, on the other hand, is in the midst of his best UFC run to date. He's 3-0 (1NC) in his past four fights and that no contest was a win over Dan Argueta which was changed after Johns failed a post-fight drug test. If there's one knock on Miles it's that the stopping power in his hands hasn't carried over in recent years. Each of those previously mentioned four fights went to a decision. That will eventually come back to bite you.
Garbrandt finds himself in a real difficult spot in terms of generating offense. He has a background in wrestling, but he's never managed to use those skills much during his time with the UFC. He's averaging just 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, so you know he's not going to be spamming attempts. His power has been largely negated of late by the fact he absorbs too much damage on the feet. I'm not sure where he goes from here.
It's crazy to say, but I think Johns is clearly the more technical boxer at this stage. That said, he's always been a very low volume guy and that's concerning. Each of his last four fights have seen the final bell. His significant strike counts in those matches were 50, 25, 43, and 38. We know it's possible to damage Cody on the feet, but you have to, you know, throw a bit in order to catch him.
I have no great infinity for Johns at this point, but I'm not really sure Garbrandt can beat anyone but fringe-roster talent at this point. I certainly would consistently bet against him against fringe top-15 guys like Johns until he proves otherwise.
My guess is this goes the distance and Johns lands the bigger blows, enough to earn a decision. Neither side looks like an attractive play from a DK standpoint.
THE PICK: Johns
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8-0) v. Denise Gomes (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Kowalkiewicz ($6,800), Gomes ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Kowalkiewicz (+330), Gomes (-425)
Karolina just turned 39 years of age. She lost four straight from September 2018 to August 2021. She was somehow granted a reprieve and responded with four straight wins of her own, only to drop a unanimous decision to Iasmin Lucindo in May. The fact she's still on the roster at this point is truly amazing. Her upside is obviously non existent at this stage of her career, but the fact Kowalkiewicz has been a member of the UFC roster for going on nine years now is an accomplishment in it's own right, especially considering her past struggles.
Gomes earned her UFC opportunity with a unanimous decision win over Rayanne Amanda on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2022. She's been active since officially joining the company less than a month later. She's fought five times for the promotion already, going 3-2. Gomes won't be 25 years of age until the end of December, so there's theoretical upside here.
Gomes has massive power for a 115-pound female fighter. Two of her three UFC wins have come via knockout. She's primarily a brawler, but that style figures to work well against Karolina, who has always absorbed too much volume on the feet. I don't see that problem improving at her advanced age and the Brazilian should have a good chance of emerging victorious here if she just remains aggressive on the feet for 15 minutes.
That said, Gomes has a massive hole in her game in terms of her takedown defense. She gave up five takedowns to Eduarda Moura in her most recent bout in June. She gave up five to Angela Hill - a known stand-up specialist -- in her fight prior to that. Her get-up game is hit or miss. Gomes needs to work her way right back to her feet in the event Karolina is able to take her to the mat.
Kowalkiewicz has landed more than one takedown just once in 17 UFC bouts. She isn't the type to smother you from top position even if she ends up in a dominant position. She's seemingly never looking to actively wrestle, and if she does here it will only be because it's a known weakness of Gomes. Karolina has one career submission win, so that's probably not on the table, either.
The line is far too wide and Gomes' DK salary is way too high, but I'd be totally flabergasted if she isn't able to get by Karolina in what projects as a 15-minute kickboxing match. If Kowalkiewicz somehow gets the Brazilian to the mat multiple times, all bets are off.
THE PICK: Gomes
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert (37-17-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Meerschaert ($7,100), de Ridder ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Meerschaert (+235), de Ridder (-280)
This fight is a big deal because it's the UFC debut of de Ridder. who it was announced had signed with the UFC in late September. The 34-year-old Dutchman is the former ONE Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion, becoming the third two-division title holder in the company's history. I'm very interested in seeing how he looks here against an established veteran in Meerschaert.
Gerald will be 37 years of age a week before Christmas. He's fresh off a submission win over Edmen Shahbazyan in August in which he was getting totally dominated, only to pull off an impressive arm-triangle submission from the bottom. His 11 submission victories are the most in UFC middleweight history, which his 12 finishes are also a 185-pound company record.
As talent as Gerald is on the mat, he's a disaster on the feet. He has no power and is overwhelmed just about every single time he is forced into a prolonged kickboxing match. He typically always gets off second in striking exchanges, even when he isn't facing a stand-up specialist. Meerschaert remains an elite mat specialist who can tap you out in an instant if you leave him an opening, but submissions are notoriously difficult predict.
De Ridder is a legitimate threat. He's a black belt in both judo and BJJ and gets elite training every day with the crew at Kill Cliff FC in South Florida. Rolling around with the likes of Kamaru Usman, Michael Chandler and others on daily basis is a huge advantage, and I expect RDR to be ready for his showcase here.
Reinier has four career wins via knockout and 11 via submission. He doesn't need to make a point by rolling around with Meerschaert on the mat. That plays right into his opponents hands. He needs to beat Gerald up on the feet and take what he gives him. He's definitely the more physically gifted fighter and should be fine as long as he doesn't make any major mistakes.
Meerschaert is always worth consideration as a DK punt play because he has one elite skill in his arsenal to help pull an upset, but it feels as if the UFC recognizes de Ridder's long-term potential, and as such, gave him a favorable matchup in his company debut.
THE PICK: de Ridder
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios (13-4-0) v. Bernardo Sopaj (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Turcios ($7,200), Sopaj ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Turcios (+240), Sopaj (-300)
THE PICK: Turcios
Women's Strawweight
Luana Pinheiro (11-3-0) v. Gillian Robertson (14-8-0)
DK Salaries: Pinheiro ($7,000), Robertson ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Pinheiro (+275), Robertson (-345)
THE PICK: Robertson
Welterweight
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-8-1) v. Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Zaleski dos Santos ($8,000), Dalby ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Zaleski dos Santos (-105), Dalby (-115)
THE PICK: Zaleski dos Santos
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (6-0-0) v. Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Abdul-Malik ($9,300), Todorovic ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Abdul-Malik (-360), Todorovic (+285)
THE PICK: Abdul-Malik
Welterweight
Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0) v. Charlie Radtke (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Semelsberger ($7,700), Radtke ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Semelsberger (+135), Radtke (-160)
THE PICK: Radtke
Bantamweight
Cody Stamann (21-7-1) v. Da'Mon Blackshear (14-7-1)
DK Salaries: Stamann ($7,300), Blackshear ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Stamann (+230), Blackshear (-285)
THE PICK: Blackshear
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Mullins (6-1-0) v. Klaudia Sygula (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Mullins ($8,800), Sygula ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Mullins (-240), Sygula (+195)
THE PICK: Sygula
Bantamweight
Gaston Bolanos (7-4-0) v. Cortavious Romious (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Bolanos ($7,500), Romious ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Bolanos (+150), Romious (-180)
THE PICK: Romious
Middleweight
Tresean Gore (5-2-0) v. Antonio Trocoli (12-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gore ($8,600), Trocoli ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Gore (-200), Trocoli (+165)
THE PICK: Gore
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
