This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC St. Louis DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC St. Louis takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (27-12-0, 1NC) v. Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Lewis ($8,400), Nascimento ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (-150), Nasicmento (+125)
Death, taxes, and Derrick Lewis main events. This will be the tenth Fight Night card that Lewis will headline, all this despite the fact "The Black Beast" has lost four of his last five fights. His most recent setback came at the hands of Jailton Almeida last November -- a fight in which Lewis gave up six takedowns and 21:15 worth of control time, stunning numbers for a five-round fight.
The good news for Lewis is that Nascimento fights nothing like Almeida. He's a pure brawler, just like Derrick, with the main difference being he has just two career wins via knockout. The Brazilian is 4-1 (1NC) in his first six UFC bouts, although the loss was a knockout to Chris Daukaus, and two of the wins were via split decision over Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser, so things aren't as rosy as that record would lead you to believe.
I'm willing to toss the Almeida result aside completely. Lewis can't be matched up against elite grapplers. It simply was never an option and really isn't an option in the latter stages of his career. Derrick has entered his last few fights in pretty good shape. I know the results haven't been indicative of that, but I think he might actually be able to exploit Nascimento in the cardio department if the fight gets that far, which seems unlikely.
Rodrigo can mix in a takedown here and there -- he's landed five in his UFC career -- but that's not his strength. He certainly isn't going to be able to pin Lewis to the mat for an extended period of time like Almeida did. Thus, this fight comes down to power and durability.
The last two pure knockout artists Lewis faced were Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa. He was knocked out in both of those fights, each of which were about two years ago. That's concerning. Derrick's durability certainly isn't any better now than it was then. His margin of victory is so thin that he has virtually zero chance of competing if his chin is starting to go in even the slightest.
Nascimento's submission game is a potential concern, but only one of his half-dozen career wins via that method came with the UFC, and that was in his first fight with the company against Don'Tale Mayes.
Between his age (39 this past February) and one-dimensional path to victory, Lewis is typically an auto-fade at this stage of his career, but I like him in this spot. I don't think Nascimento is all that good, quite frankly. If Lewis is able to keep his head above water if he hits the mat, and that's no guarantee, I think he catches Rodrigo with something big on the feet and puts him away.
THE PICK: Lewis
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Joaquin Buckley (18-6-0) v. Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Buckley ($8,700), Ruziboev ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Buckley (-160), Ruziboev (+135)
This projects to be a highly entertaining bout and one that is made all the more intriguing by the fact both of these men fought on the Atlantic City card at the end of March. It's a shockingly quick turnaround and a big spot for both combatants.
Buckley is in the midst of his best run to date, having won three straight and six of his last eight. His victory over Vicente Luque in AC was by far his best performance under the UFC banner, as he totally dominated a fringe top-ten opponent from bell to bell. Buckley looked so good in that fight (he eventually earned a knockout in late Round 2) that it made you wonder if Luque entered with an injury or illness, but nothing was reported.
Ruziboev's UFC run has consisted of two fights, neither of which lasted longer than 3:18. To his credit, he won both via dominant knockout, and you don't get paid by the hour as a fighter, so his brief time with the company has gone as well as possible. He looks legitimate, and we'll quickly find out after this fight just how much long-term potential Ruziboev may or may not have.
Two things stick out when looking at this fight. The first is the fact Buckley has faced the FAR BETTER competition over the course of his career. He's been in the Octagon with the likes of Luque, Alex Morono, Chris Curtis, Nassourdine Imavov and Kevin Holland. Ruziboev's two UFC victories have come against Brunno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas.
Second is the massive height edge Ruziboev enters with. Both men have a 76-inch reach, but Nursulton checks in at a whopping 6-foot-5. It's nothing short of a minor miracle the man is able to make the 171-pound welterweight limit. Buckley, on the other hand, is just 5-foot-10. It's certainly something worth monitoring in a fight between two guys known for their fight-ending power.
Maybe I'm being stubborn, but I'm still not sold on Buckley. Wins over the likes of Luque and Morono are nice, but neither of those guys are top-ten fighters at this point.
Ruziboev has been knocked out once in 46 pro fights, while Buckley has been finished four times in 24 bouts. It's not a stretch to think the former has the edge in the durability department.
I acknowledge I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Joaquim went in and dispatched Ruziboev quickly, but I believe in the skill set of the latter, he's gigantic and he most definitely looks underpriced from a DK standpoint. $7,500 at +135 on the Vegas line is something you want to attack all day long. I think he has a 50/50 chance of winning, which combined with the value, makes him the play.
THE PICK: Ruziboev
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1) v. Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Menifield ($6,900), Ulberg ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Menifield (+215), Ulberg (-265)
These two were originally scheduled to fight on the Atlantic City card in late-March before getting pushed back about six weeks.
Menifield is in the midst of his best run to date, going undefeated in his past four (4-0-1) bouts. The success has come at a very strange time considering Alonzo will be turning 37 years of age this coming October. While the wins are nice, a deeper dive into the numbers reveals some cause for concern. Those four previously mentioned wins came against three guys who aren't in the company anymore (Jimmy Crute, Misha Cirkunov, Askar Mozharov), along with Dustin Jacoby, who out-landed Menifield by a 113-95 count in their bout. Of course, that's what Alonzo does. He's a high-power, low-volume guy. I'm just not convinced it's a skill set that will work against better opposition.
I have never been particularly high on Ulberg, but he's slowly turned me into a believer. He's run off five straight wins, including four via stoppage (1 submission, 4 knockouts) following a knockout loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu in his UFC debut back in March 2021. Again, it's important to remember that Ulberg isn't exactly beating the cream of the crop at 205 pounds. His five most recent victories have come over Fabio Cherant, Tafon Nchukwi, Nicolae Negumereanu, Ihor Potieria and Da Woon Jung.
This figures to be primarily a striking battle. Ulberg is four inches taller and enters with a one-inch reach edge. Also, as a former professional kickboxer, Carlos is going to have a real and significant edge in terms of technical prowess in the stand-up. That said, the pure power edge definitely goes for Menifield for as long as his cardio holds up. I was pleasantly impressed with his overall body of work over the course of 15 minutes against Jacoby, but Ulberg is a much better opponent.
I'm not crazy about Ulberg's price tag simply because Alonzo hits so hard, but if we're looking at this from just a technical standpoint, he has a huge edge and certainly should win more often than not. A bet on Menifield is simply a hope he lands something big which leads to the finish. Certainly possible, but not probable. Ulberg, the more talented all-around fighter, is the pick.
THE PICK: Ulberg
Featherweight
Alex Caceres (21-14-0, 1NC) v. Sean Woodson (11-1-1)
DK Salaries: Caceres ($7,100), Woodson ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Caceres (+165), Woodson (-200)
Caceres, set to turn 36 years of age this coming June, is sporting a 7-2 record in his last nine fights dating back to July 2019, and that's even with a unanimous decision defeat to Giga Chikadze his last time out last August. The UFC has been very generous with Caceres in terms of the competition level it has matched him up against, but "Bruce Leeroy" gives you a competent effort each and every time out. He hung in there well in the Giga fight despite being swept on the scorecards.
Woodson's 5-1-1 UFC record is aided by a pair of split-decision victories, but I've still been pretty impressed with what I've seen from him thus far. He's essentially a one-dimensional fighter -- that being his striking, mostly at distance, but he's legitimately talented in that area. I'm not sure it's a skill set that is going to fare all that well against better competition, but so far, so good.
I find this fight fascinating simply because these are two of the biggest featherweights on the entire roster. Caceres is 5-foot-10 and the bigger man almost every single time he steps into the Octagon. Except in this instance. He's giving up four inches in height to the 6-foot-4 Woodson, in addition to a whopping five inches in reach.
Both can wrestle in a pinch, but I wouldn't call it a strength of either. The winner of this fight will be the man who figures out how to land plenty of volume on the feet. In the case of Caceres, he's going to have to find a way to consistently get inside against a bigger opponent. For Woodson, he's going up against a guy in Alex that is very unorthodox and difficult to game plan for.
In terms of pure striking, this seems like a poor matchup for Caceres. He isn't going to have his usual height/length advantage, which is going to force him to take chances if he hopes to consistently damage Woodson from in tight. That should allow Sean, who is a very accurate striker, to pick his spots and pick his opponent apart.
Woodson isn't much of a finisher, and Caceres is tough, so I would imagine this fight sees the final bell, but I like the favorite.
THE PICK: Woodson
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Carlos Diego Ferreira (18-5-0) v. Mateusz Rebecki (19-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ferreira ($6,800), Rebecki ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Ferreira (+300), Rebecki (-380)
THE PICK: Rebecki
Heavyweight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (11-1-0) v. Robelis Despaigne (5-0-0)
DK Salaries: Cortes-Acosta ($7,200), Despaigne ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Cortes-Acosta (+165), Despaigne (-200)
THE PICK: Cortes-Acosta
Lightweight
Chase Hooper (13-3-1) v. Slava Borshchev (7-3-1)
DK Salaries: Hooper ($7,700), Borshchev ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Hooper (+130), Borshchev (-155)
THE PICK: Borshchev
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (15-6-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($7,300), Ribovics ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (+145), Ribovics (-175)
THE PICK: Ribovics
Women's Strawweight
Tabatha Ricci (9-2-0) v. Tecia Pennington (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Ricci ($8,300), Pennington ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ricci (-140), Pennington (+115)
THE PICK: Pennington
Welterweight
Billy Goff (9-2-0) v. Trey Waters (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Goff ($7,400), Waters ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Goff (+140), Waters (-165)
THE PICK: Waters
Flyweight
Charles Johnson (14-6-0) v. Jake Hadley (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($7,600), Hadley ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+140), Hadley (-165)
THE PICK: Hadley
Welterweight
Jared Gooden (23-9-0) v. Kevin Jousset (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Gooden ($7,000), Jousset ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Gooden (+180), Jousset (-220)
THE PICK: Jousset
Women's Flyweight
JJ Aldrich (13-6-0) v. Veronica Hardy (8-4-1)
DK Salaries: Aldrich ($8,000), Hardy ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Aldrich (+120), Hadley (-140)
THE PICK: Aldrich
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC St. Louis with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
