This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Charlotte takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Jair Rozenstruik (13-4-0) v. Jailton Almeida (18-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rozenstruik ($6,600), Almeida ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Rozenstruik (+400), Almeida (-550)
Odds to Finish: -1350
Shout out to Jair's agent/management team, who are among the best in the sport. This will be the fifth time in a dozen UFC bouts Rozenstruik will headline an event, which is truly amazing considering his record with the company is only 7-4, and his only victories of note were against past-their-primes Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem back in late 2019 and mid 2020, respectively.
Almeida will be 32 years of age in June, so he's considerably older than your typical "prospect", but his future is about as bright as any relative newcomer in the heavyweight division. He's 4-0 in the UFC, with all four wins coming via stoppage, including three in Round 1. It must certainly be noted those victories came against Shamil Abdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter and Danilo Marques. Regardless of what you think about Rozenstruik and his future potential, or lack thereof, he's lightyears better than anyone Almeida has faced to date with the company.
Almeida is currently averaging 6.73 takedowns per 15 minutes. His explosiveness and ability to drag his opposition to the mat appears to be unmatched in the heavyweight division, with the possible exception of Curtis Blaydes. Jair's takedown defense is a reasonable 75 percent and he's a better athlete than he gets credit for, but facing constant pressure from Jailton is a different animal entirely. I would be truly flabbergasted if Rozenstruik doesn't find himself on the mat on multiple occasions in this fight.
Jair has legitimate power, but other than landing a one-punch knockout, it's nearly impossible to envision a scenario in which he can win this fight. He doesn't have a single submission victory in his career, so it's not as if he is going to be able to generate offense off his back after he is inevitably planted to the mat be Almeida.
In addition to being really good, Almeida has a significant stylistic edge over a good portion of the heavyweight division. A lot of these guys lack athleticism, or at least high-end athleticism, and are entirely reliant on power shots for success, and that can be easily negated by good grappling.
It's imperative Jailton continue to work on his cardio as we are yet to see him fight for an extended period of time, but the Brazilian appears to have all the tools to make a push towards the top of the heavyweight division, probably sooner rather than later.
The price tag is terrifying, but Almeida should be worth it. My guess is he blows by Rozenstruik without issue and and we are left talking about how aggressively Almeida should be pushed his next time out.
THE PICK: Almeida
Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith (36-17-0) v. Johnny Walker (20-7-0)
DK Salaries: Smith ($8,000), Walker ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Smith (-115), Walker (-105)
Odds to Finish: -400
This fight was due to headline this card when it was first announced, only to be dropped down to the co-main event slot in favor of Almedia v. Rozenstruik. My first thought is that a five-round fight would have given a bit of an edge to Smith, who has headlined five of the last seven events in which he has fought. As is, this is a pick 'em.
Smith is a great story that hasn't been talked about enough in the past many years. Set to turn 35 years of age in late-July, "Lionheart" returned to the UFC in February 2016 and performed well enough to earn a shot at Jon Jones' UFC Light Heavyweight Championship in March 2019. Smith was crushed in the fight and has traditionally struggled against quality competition, but the fact he has continuously put himself in position for meaningful fights at 205 pounds is simply remarkable and a testament to his work ethic and determination. Smith is a true professional in every sense of the word.
Walker has been impressive at times, while also maddeningly inconsistent, during his near five-year UFC run. He began with three straight Round 1 stoppage victories before following that up with a 1-4 mark in his next five bouts. Walker has since rebounded to secure back-to-back victories over Paul Craig (TKO) and Ion Cutelaba (submission).
Smith is a big dude at 6-foot-4, but Walker, at 6-foot-6, is truly massive for the division. He'll enter with a six-inch edge in reach, in addition to his two-inch edge in height.
Two of Anthony's last three defeats have come via knockout, and it's fair to wonder if durability is starting to become an issue. This is a guy with more than 50 professional fights under his belt. Smith turned pro in February 2008 and has been in countless wars over the years, it would be perfectly understandable if his body was starting to break down a bit.
My heart says Smith can muck this up to a point in which he can grind out a decision, but my head tells me Anthony's sudden recent lack of durability is a problem against a guy with ridiculous power.
The range of outcomes for this fight is wide, but I simply feel more comfortable with Walker than Smith these days, albeit it not by much.
THE PICK: Walker
Welterweight
Ian Garry (11-0-0) v. Daniel Rodriguez (17-3-0)
DK Salaries: Garry ($9,000), Rodriguez ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Garry (-300), Rodriguez (+240)
Odds to Finish: +105
Perfect in 11 professional fights, Ireland's Garry is widely considered to be one of the sport's best prospects. He's won each of his first four UFC bouts, with two coming via knockout (Song Kenan, Jordan Williams) and two via unanimous decision (Gabriel Green, Darian Weeks). I wouldn't put Garry on the same level as someone such as Bo Nickal, but he's quite good and has a very bright future. He won't be 26 years of age until November.
Rodriguez had a four fight winning streak snapped in a submission loss to Neil Magny last November. Of course, he also lost to Li Jingliang in his prior bout, only to have two of the three judges gift him a split decision victory. Rodriguez is 7-2 in nine UFC bouts, which is remarkable considering he'll be 37 years of age on New Year's Eve and is a one-dimensional boxer. D-Rod has really fast hands and impressive durability, but he has no secondary means of generating offense and throws no kicks at all.
Rodriguez is a big welterweight at 6-foot-1, but he's giving up two inches in height to Garry, in addition to being more than a decade older. There's zero doubt which man is the better athlete. Daniel is good enough to simply overwhelm lesser competition with plenty of volume on the feet, but that isn't going to work once he starts facing better opponents. The Magny fight was a perfect example of that.
Garry's not a wrestler -- he averages 0.3 takedowns per 15 minutes -- but this would be a good fight to try to get to mat. Rodriguez is like a cyborg on the feet, continuing to push forward and eat whatever his opposition throws his way, but he looked truly awful in the Magny fight, grappling-wise, allowing Neil to land 5-of-7 takedown attempts. It's a clear weakness Garry should be trying to exploit.
Perhaps Garry is foolish enough to engage Rodriguez in the sloppy back-and-forth striking brawl he is seeking, and Daniel can win that fight, but everything else is in Ian's favor in a major way, to the point he has to be the pick.
THE PICK: Garry
Welterweight
Tim Means (32-14-1, 1NC) v. Alex Morono (22-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Means ($7,400), Morono ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Means (+180), Morono (-220)
Odds to Finish: +100
A pure striker that struggles to generate offense if he is unable to fire off plenty of volume on the feet, Morono had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio last December. Alex looked quite good in that one, and was on his way to a decision win prior to being finished midway through Round 3. Morono is a perfectly capable welterweight, but nothing we have seen in his seven-plus year in the company would lead you to believe any sort of prolonged winning streak against better competition is forthcoming.
Now 39 years of age and the loser of back-to-back fights, Means is likely fighting for his job on Saturday. He's 4-6 in his last 10 bouts dating back to November 2017, although three of those setbacks came via split decision, including one against Belal Muhammad, who will be fighting for the UFC Welterweight Championship sooner rather than later.
Morono -- who checks in at 5-foot-11 -- is rarely the smaller fighter, but he's giving up three inches in both height and reach to Means. Alex is a much more technical striker and should be favored in a prolonged stand-up battle, but I trust Means' durability much more these days.
Although Means isn't much of a wrestler, averaging 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, I wonder if he will go the grappling route against Morono, given the latter's woeful 53-percent takedown defense. Alex has landed all of one successful takedown in his last eight fights, so Means can go about his business without feat or Alex shooting on him.
Both of these guys have plenty of MMA miles on their bodies, and Morono's striking skills are the greatest weapon either man possesses, but Alex simply seems overpriced in this fight.
Both men struggle with consistency, and although I'd certainly take Morono in a pick 'em, I feel he should be a good $300-$400 cheaper than his DK salary. That's enough to swing me in Means' direction in a fight in which I don't have a super strong feeling either way.
THE PICK: Means
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Matt Brown (25-19-0) v. Court McGee (22-11-0)
DK Salaries: Brown ($7,500), McGee ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Brown (+185), McGee (-225)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Brown
Heavyweight
Karl Williams (8-1-0) v. Chase Sherman (16-11-0)
DK Salaries: Williams ($9,400), Sherman ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Williams (-400), Sherman (+310)
Odds to Finish: -175
THE PICK: Williams
Bantamweight
Cody Stamann (21-5-1) v. Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Stamann ($8,500), Silva de Andrade ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Stamann (-165), Silva de Andrade (+135)
Odds to Finish: +150
THE PICK: Stamann
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg (8-1-0) v. Ihor Potieria (19-3-0)
DK Salaries: Ulberg ($9,300), Potieria ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Ulberg (-450), Potieria (+325)
Odds to Finish: -350
THE PICK: Ulberg
Lightweight
Natan Levy (8-1-0) v. Pete Rodriguez (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Levy ($9,100), Rodriguez ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Levy (-275), Rodriguez (+210)
Odds to Finish: -285
THE PICK: Levy
Women's Flyweight
Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2) v. Mandy Bohm (7-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kim ($8,900), Bohm ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Kim (-190), Bohm (+155)
Odds to Finish: +200
THE PICK: Bohm
Welterweight
Bryan Battle (9-2-0) v. Gabriel Green (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Battle ($7,900), Green ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Battle (+110), Green (-135)
Odds to Finish: +115
THE PICK: Green
Women's Bantamweight
Jessica-Rose Clark (11-8-0, 1NC) v. Tainara Lisboa (5-2-0)
DK Salaries: Clark ($8,400), Lisboa ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Clark (-115), Lisboa (-105)
Odds to Finish: +155
THE PICK: Lisboa
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Charlotte with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
