This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 306 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 306 (aka "Noche UFC") takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 306 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight Championship
(C) Sean O'Malley (18-1-0, 1NC) v. Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: O'Malley ($8,500), Dvalishvili ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: O'Malley (-135), Dvalishivli (+115)
O'Malley won the UFC Bantamweight Championship from Aljamain Sterling in August 2023, picking up a beautiful knockout win early in Round 2. He made his first title defense against Marlon Vera this past March in a bout which wasn't the least bit competitive over the course of 25 minutes. My opinion on O'Malley has changed over the years. Yes, he's an elite striker and true sniper on the feet, but he's quietly and significantly improved in other areas over the years, and he is a worthy champion despite competing in arguably the deepest division in the sport today.
Dvalishvili, a teammate of Sterling, was the obvious choice for the role of challenger here given his recent run and the past bad blood between he and O'Malley. Merab has won ten in a row on the heels of back-to-back defeats to begin his UFC run. His three most recent victories are over Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan and Jose Aldo. He's done more than enough to earn this opportunity.
The entire world knows how this fight is going to go. Merab is going to spam takedown attempts in hopes of driving the champion to the mat, while O'Malley will sell out to remain upright in hopes of picking Dvalishvili apart on the feet.
Dvalishvili has arguably the best cardio and best wrestling game in the UFC today. He averages a ridiculous 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has landed at least four takedowns in four of his past five fights. Unlike many fighters who stop wrestling if their early attempts fail, Merab sticks with the same game plan over and over. He makes a living off pressuring his opposition and making them uncomfortable. We've seen guys handle it well in short spurts, but virtually no one has been able to shut it down for an entire fight. The two extra rounds also figures to be a significant advantage for Merab.
I picked Sterling over O'Malley because I figured Aljo would adopt a similar game plan. He didn't. He only attempted two takedowns and didn't commit to either. That allowed O'Malley to remain standing and eventually put him away.
Sean has given up a takedown in just one of his last six fights, but in that bout, he allowed a half-dozen to Yan. That said, O'Malley is athletic for a long guy and pretty good at working his way back to his feet. His fight IQ is strong, and he knows he isn't going to win if he's planted to the mat for long stretches at a time.
When this fight was first announced, I assumed I'd heavily favor Merab. That enthusiam has waned over time. The difference in strking skills, and size, between the two is massive. If O'Malley is able to remain upright for even three of the five rounds, he's going to win a decision. I'm still going to take Dvalishvili simply because my initial lean was so strong, but I'm less confident than ever about it. That said, the price is excellent.
THE PICK: Dvalishvili
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) v. Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1)
DK Salaries: Grasso ($8,300), Shevchenko ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Grasso (-135), Shevchenko (+115)
This will be the third fight in a row between these two. Grasso won the first back in March 2023 via Round 4 submission to take Shevchenko's title, and then the two fought to a draw almost exactly a year ago.
I've been light on Grasso all along. I definitely picked Valentina in the first fight and I'm pretty sure the second, as well. Alexa was maddeningly inconsistent over the early portion of her career but has somehow found her game while facing better competition, mainly Shevchenko. There are holes in her game, and she still doesn't strike me as a champion that will hold her title for an extended period of time, but given the lack of depth in the division, anything is possible.
Valentina, on the other hand, has been trending downwards. She looked so good for so long in beating up opposition that had zero chance of even threatening her that it feels as if she took her foot off the gas pedal a bit. The first fight between these two was the first time in a long time that Shevchenko wasn't simply able to go through the motions, and she ended up losing. Set to turn 37 years of age next March, Valentina may not get another title shot if she comes up short here.
Alexa has an advantage in terms of technical skill on the feet. It's her greatest asset. She has very little finishing power in her hands, but her technique is excellent, and she displayed an improved ability to damage Shevchenko in the second fight between the two.
Every bout between these two is close and competitive. There's probably a better than even chance it will go the distance, and that makes it imperative that Grasso land plenty of volume early and often. She's giving up a ton of strength to Valentina, and she's hopelessly outclassed in terms of overall grappling, so the stand-up is where Alexa will make her headway if it is to happen.
Yes, Grasso won the first fight via submission, but she doesn't want to be rolling around on the mat with Valentina. Shevchenko landed exactly four takedowns in each of the two fights. Overall, she connected on 8-of-13 attempts and racked up just north of 14 minutes worth of control time. I think she needs to be wrestling even more than that. Even the shots that don't land will serve to close the distance between her and the champion and hopefully limit Grasso's output on the feet in the process.
While it's clear I've underrated Grasso throughout the process, Valentina's wrestling is still the most significant difference-maker either woman brings to the table. This fight is a pure coin flip, and I'll side with the moderate value play, which is Shevchenko.
THE PICK: Shevchenko
Featherweight
Brian Ortega (16-3-0, 1NC) v. Diego Lopes (25-6-0)
DK Salaries: Ortega ($7,500), Lopes ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Ortega (+145), Lopes (-175)
These two were scheduled to fight at UFC 303 in late-June, at which point Ortega pulled out with an illness just a couple of hours before the fight, and Dan Ige, who was hanging out at home in Vegas, stepped in on ultra-short notice and hung tough before Lopes took a unanimous decision.
Ortega returned from more than a year and a half on the sidelines this past February to defeat Yair Rodriguez, a solid opponent, via third-round submission. It took Ortega a round to find his range, but once he did, he steamrolled Rodriguez. I backed Yair in that fight and paid for it. Ortega is a notoriously slow starter, so it shouldn't be surprising that he struggled early before finding his range. I still don't think "T-City" is a true title contender at 145 pounds, but he's right back in the top-five conversation after that effort.
This is a significant step up in competition for Lopes, and he deserves it. The 29-year-old Brazilian competed on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2021 and dropped a technical decision to Joanderson Brito, a good opponent. He finally got the call to the main roster in May 2023 and dropped a unanimous decision to Movsar Evloev, another stud. Since then, Lopes has ran off three straight stoppage wins over Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini and Gavin Tucker. Those are three solid victories, but none of those guys are on the level of Brito, Evloev, Ige or Ortega.
Ortega's striking has improved over the course of his career. His striking defense is still pretty ugly, but he's gotten a bit more aggressive on the feet over the years, and that's helped. It's certainly not the strength of his game, but it's gotten better. Any prolonged kickboxing exchanges should favor Lopes. He's bigger, longer and has more pure power.
I'm very interested in seeing how Ortega fares as the smaller man. At 5-foot-8, he's one of the bigger guys at 145 pounds. The problem is that Lopes is 5-foot-11 and will also enter with a three-inch edge in reach.
Ortega's win condition is typically via submission. It's worth noting Lopes has never been submitted in 30 professional fights. It's also important to remember Ortega, for all his mat abilities, is not a great wrestler. He's awesome on the ground but has a tough time getting his opposition there. He averages just 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, while landing 27 percent of his attempts.
All that said, I'm backing Ortega. Yusuff, Sabatini and Tucker are all solid wins for Lopes, but none of those guys are on the level of Ortega. Until we see Lopes defeat a true high-level guy, I'm zigging when most of the market seems likely to zag.
THE PICK: Ortega
Lightweight
Daniel Zellhuber (15-1-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Zellhuber ($9,000), Ribovics ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Zellhuber (-260), Ribovics (+210)
A legitimate prospect at 155 pounds, Zellhuber has won three in a row on the heels of a unanimous decision defeat to Trey Odgen in his UFC debut back in September 2022. He's always been a very gifted striker and the other aspects of his game are slowly rounding into form. Zellhuber has a fairly high ceiling, even if he still remains a handful of fights from ultimately reaching it.
Also a loser in his UFC debut, Ribovics has won his last two bouts, highlighted by a ridiculous 37-second knockout victory over Terrance McKinney this past May. It's a quick turnaround for the Argentinian, but Ribovics had to expend literally zero energy to get past McKinney, so he should be in prime form for this one.
This thing has Fight of the Night written all over it.
Both men are high-volume strikers with legitimate power. Zellhuber lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute on average, while Ribovics is up at 6.2 per 60 seconds. The main difference between the two comes in terms of striking defense. Zellhuber is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. The numbers are a little misleading because he's actually very technical on the feet.
Ribovics has a hole in his grappling game the size of the Atlantic Ocean. He allowed 11 takedowns in his debut defeat to Loik Radzhabov and three more in his next bout, a unanimous decision win over Kamuela Kirk. He didn't have to worry about it against McKinney because the fight ended so quickly. Any opponent that does any research whatsoever will see that's the clearest path to victory when fighting Ribovics.
The issue is that Zellhuber has never landed a takedown in his UFC career. He got one in his Dana White's Contender Series bout, but that's it. I don't suddenly expect him to morph into Khabib Nurmagomedov or Georges St-Pierre here, meaning Esteban is a live underdog.
Ultimately, however, I simply couldn't get to picking Ribovics because of the size difference between the two. At 5-foot-10 with a 69-inch reach, Esteban is large for 155-pounds. The issue is that he's taking on about the biggest lightweight you will ever see in Zellhuber, who checks in at 6-foot-1 and will enter with a ridiculous eight-inch reach edge.
I think Ribovics has enough stand-up skills to keep this fight fairly close and I wouldn't be shocked if he tries to drag Zellhuber to the mat, but I ultimately think he's going to have a difficult time getting inside with enough consistency to rack up enough damage to win the bout.
THE PICK: Zellhuber
Flyweight
Ronaldo Rodriguez (16-2-0) v. Ode Osbourne (12-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($8,600), Osbourne ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-135), Osbourne (+115)
This is an exceedingly strange matchup to open up the main card of what is being billed as such a big event.
We've had virtually zero exposure to Rodriguez to date. He dropped a unanimous decision on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2020. He went back to the Mexican regional scene, won five straight, and then made his UFC debut in February, submitting Denys Bondar with a rear-naked choke with one second remaining in Round 2. He won't be 26 years of age until next May, so youth is on his side, but Bondar went winless in three UFC bouts before being released, so a victory over him doesn't tell us very much.
Osbourne has had a couple decent performances with the UFC, most notably a split decision win over Charles Johnson last February which has aged quite well. That said, his career record with the company is below .500 (4-5) and with losses in his last two and three of his last four, Osbourne is probably going to be handed his walking papers if he comes up short against Rodriguez.
Like many Mexican fighters, Rodriguez has displayed elite durability to date, not being finished in 18 professional bouts. It's certainly worth mentioning here because the vast majority of Osbourne's success comes in brawls. He's not all that technical, but can keep a high pace in short bursts and make things uncomfortable for his opposition.
While Rodriguez is by no means an elite mat specialist, Ode's greatest struggles come in the terms of his submission defense. Four of his seven career defeats are via that method, which isn't a shock considering he typically starts quickly before fading as his fights progress.
Rodriguez is going to have to find a way to negate an eight-inch reach disadvantage, but unlike the previous fight, Ronaldo is facing an opponent with a highly questionable gas tank that is clearly on the back-nine of his UFC run despite being just 32 years old.
There's enough potential randomness at play for this fight that I have no issues with inserting Osbourne in your lineup in hopes of squeezing out some extra value elsewhere, but I think Rodriguez is the pick. He's going to have the crowd firmly in his corner and has theoretical upside. We've already seen the best Ode has to offer.
THE PICK: Rodriguez
OTHER BOUTS
Women's Bantamweight
Irene Aldana (15-7-0) v. Norma Dumont (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aldana ($8,400), Dumont ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Aldana (-120), Dumont (+100)
THE PICK: Dumont
Lightweight
Manuel Torres (15-2-0) v. Ignacio Bahamondes (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Torres ($8,200), Bahamondes ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Torres (-120), Bahamondes (+100)
THE PICK: Torres
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza (14-4-0) v. Yazmin Jauregui (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Souza ($7,000), Jauregui ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Souza (+380), Jauregui (-500)
THE PICK: Jauregui
Flyweight
Edgar Chairez (11-5-0, 1NC) v. Joshua Van (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Chariez ($7,300), Van ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Chariez (+180), Van (-220)
THE PICK: Van
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas (9-1-0) v. Aori Qileng (25-11-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rosas ($9,700), Qileng ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Rosas (-850), Qileng (+575)
THE PICK: Rosas
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 306with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
