This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 301 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 301 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 301 Special with $150k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - UFC Flyweight Championship
(C) Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0) v. Steve Erceg (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Pantoja ($8,800), Erceg ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Pantoja (-200), Erceg (+165)
This will be the second title defense for Pantoja. He won the belt from Brandon Moreno in a back-and-forth war last July and routed Brandon Royval (who has since defeated Moreno) in a lopsided unanimous decision last December. Erceg isn't an easy opponent, but he has zero history of defeating high-end competition, and Pantoja will have the crowd firmly behind him in his native Brazil. All things considered, things worked out pretty well for Pantoja here.
I like Erceg and think he has a bright future, but I'm very surprised he's being pushed into this spot so quickly. Yes, he's undefeated with the UFC, but he's only had three fights, and the competition he's faced has been fair (Matt Schnell, Alessandro Costa, David Dvorak), but far from elite. The fact this fight is happening is a direct correlation to the lack of current depth in the flyweight division.
Pantoja is a complete mixed martial artist. He has legitimate power for an undersized fighter, has ten career wins via submission, and is incredibly durable, having never been finished in 32 professional bouts. He has a tendency to be dragged into brawls at times, but as we saw in the Moreno fight, that's not necessarily a bad thing for Pantoja.
Erceg is remarkably composed inside the Octagon for a guy with all of 13 professional fights under his belt. I wouldn't call him a high-level athlete, but his fight IQ has proven to be exceptional, and at 5-foot-8, he has good size for the division. Erceg strikes me as a guy with the ability to outperform his physical gifts simply because he processes things so quickly during fights.
Erceg is five years younger than Pantoja. He's also the bigger man, having dabbled at bantamweight in the past.
I still don't think that will be enough.
Pantoja hasn't lost in nearly four years and appears to be legitimately improving at age 34. I wouldn't rule out Erceg getting to his level at some point, but I don't think he's there right now. Toss in the fact this fight is in Brazil, as well as the gap in competition each man has faced, and I'll take the champion to retain in a close decision, as the majority of flyweight bouts are.
THE PICK: Pantoja
Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Jonathan Martinez (19-4-0) v. Jose Aldo (31-8-0)
DK Salaries: Martinez ($8,300), Aldo ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Martinez (-165), Aldo (+135)
This bout is a bit worrisome on multiple levels. Aldo retired in August 2022 following a loss to top 135-pound contender Merab Dvalishvili, and there was zero talk of him returning in any form or fashion until this fight was announced out of the blue. Given this is a Pay-Per-View in his native Brazil, I can't help but think his addition to what is a weak card was simply to help sell tickets.
Aldo will be 38 years of age in September. He keeps himself in excellent shape, and I imagine he still has plenty of gas left in the tank, even if he isn't on the same level of the top guys in the bantamweight division. His three fights prior to the Merab defeat were unanimous decision wins over Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Vera, so he was on a pretty good run when he stepped away. He even looked good early in the Dvalishvili bout before fading. The time away is a concern, but I'm nearly certain Aldo will perform better than other aging veterans who decide to unretire.
Martinez is getting a notable fight here that will almost certainly result in his biggest payday to date, and he's more than earned it. Jonathan enters having won six straight, including victories over Adrian Yanez, Said Nurmagomedov and Cub Swanson. Martinez is a legitimate fringe top-ten guy in a loaded division.
The obvious concern is how much the time away will have impacted the aging Aldo. The fact he landed just 59 total strikes in the Merab fight is highly concerning, especially considering he didn't allow a takedown. Now, Dvalishvili is very difficult to fight due to the constant pressure he applies, but any significant loss in volume on the feet could be a potential death sentence for Aldo.
Martinez is roughly eight years younger and absorbs just 3.76 significant strikes per minute. I don't see Aldo lapping him in a point-striking battle, and while there's a real concern any close decision could be handed to the veteran, if one man is to pull away in this fight, my guess is it's Martinez.
I don't think Aldo is washed, which makes him a reasonable underdog play on a card in which I don't like many underdogs, but I think Martinez wins this fight more often than not.
THE PICK: Martinez
Middleweight
Michel Pereira (30-11-0, 2NC) v. Ihor Potieria (20-5-0)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($9,600), Potieria ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-535), Potieria (+400)
This was scheduled to be Pereira and Makhmud Muradov before the latter was forced to withdraw due to an infection. Potieria, who was scheduled to fight Sharaputdin Magomedov on the Saudi Arabia card in late-June, agreed to step in on about three weeks' notice.
In the midst of the best run of his career, Pereira has won seven in a row, including back-to-back stoppage wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk (submission) and Andre Petroski (TKO). Michel is one of the most physically gifted guys in the entire company, regardless of division. The days of him dancing around and putting on a show are over. He's changed the way he competes and approaches his fights, and his opposition is paying for it.
Potieria's UFC run got off to a rough start. He lost three of his first four bouts with the company before almost certainly saving his job with a knockout win over the debuting Robert Bryczek this past February. When you think about it, Potieria's accepting this fight, even on short notice, was a no-brainer. His future with the company would appear bleak despite the Bryczek victory. He has nothing to lose against Pereira and everything to gain, and will walkaway with a PPV main card payday in the process.
It's clear as day that the safest and smartest path for Pereira here is to use his wrestling game. He averages 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 55 percent of his attempts. Potieria, on the other hand, has yet to land a takedown his entire UFC run and is defending the takedown at just a 57 percent clip. Stronger and much more athletic, Pereira can almost certainly grind Ihor to dust if he so chooses.
Pereira, especially the recent version of him, is going to have a massive advantage on the feet if it stays standing. Ihor does have nine knockout victories, but his stopping power hasn't carried over against better competition. Michel is more explosive, particularly in short bursts. Ihor is a textbook brawler, and while he's shown an ability to be semi-effective in those type of fights, I don't think the new and improved Pereira is going to fall for that nonsense.
This is the clearest picks on the main card for me, as any Ihor victory will almost certainly have to be a one-punch knockout, and there's no way I'm betting on that. I'm a believer in Pereira's recent improvements. I think he steamrolls Potieria. Unfortunately, you're going to have to pay up to find out.
THE PICK: Pereira
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith (37-19-0) v. Vitor Petrino (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Smith ($6,800), Petrino ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Smith (+390), Petrino (-520)
The loser of three of his last four with the lone victory in that span being a split decision over Ryan Spann, Smith, who will be 36 years of age in late-July, appears to be just about out of time. Anthony is literally as tough as they come and has been in the Octagon with the very best the sport has to offer for more than 16 years. He's highly respected. All that said, if you watch him fight for even a couple minutes these days, you can tell his body has begun to betray him. All the wars he's been in over the years have taken a massive toll.
The UFC did Smith no favors with this matchup. Petrino has been unstoppable to date. He earned a knockout victory on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2022 and has followed that up with four straight wins to begin his time with the company. Vitor looks like the real deal, but the lone issue to date is that he has yet to face quality opposition. His best victories are over Tyson Pedro and Modestas Bukauskas.
Petrino has real power despite the fact he's a low-volume striker, averaging just 2.74 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes. That's bad news for Smith, who has 11 career losses via knockout, including three of his last five setbacks. Anthony's footwork has evaporated, and he's struggling to get his head off the center line, which is exactly what happens when you're closing in on 60 professional fights.
Then there's the fact Petrino is averaging 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Smith defends the takedown at a woeful 48-percent clip.
In short, I'm not sure how Smith can win this fight. He's going to be massively outgunned on the feet and short of Petrino doing something foolish like leaving his neck exposed in a ground exchange, Anthony seems unlikely to control the pace of the bout should it reach the mat.
I get the hesitancy to pay up for Vitor given the lack of quality victories on his resume, but everything here suggests he's on for an easy night at the office and will probably be worth the investment. I just don't see how Smith can remain competitive against these younger, legitimately talented opponents.
THE PICK: Petrino
Middleweight
Paul Craig (17-7-1) v. Caio Borralho (15-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Craig ($6,700), Borralho ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Craig (+390), Borralho (-520)
Craig's six-fight unbeaten streak (5-0-1) from September 2019 to March 2022 feels like a decade ago. He's lost three of four since, with the lone victory during that span coming against a guy in Andre Muniz that is nowhere near as good as we first though. Craig, now 36 years of age, should be commended for somehow still receiving notable fights in 2024, but he's clearly running out of time.
The fact he's going up against a quality opponent here in Borralho doesn't serve to help matters, either. A two-time winner on Dana White's Contender Series, Caio has won his first five official fights with the company, scoring five unanimous decisions and one submission. I wish he displayed a bit more urgency in terms of going for the stoppage at times, but that's about my only knock on him thus far. He has legitimate top-ten potential at 185 pounds.
This looks like a terrible matchup for Craig for multiple reasons. For starters, we all know about the lack of power in his hands. He has just four career wins via knockout. I find it very difficult to believe he's going to outpoint Borralho over the course of 15 minutes in a hostile environment, and Paul simply doesn't throw with enough authority on the feet to make up ground if he falls behind early.
Much like a female Mackenzie Dern, Craig is a wizard on the mat. He has 13 career wins via submission but no way to consistently get the fight to the ground. He averages 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is fine, but far from elite. On the flip side, Borralho is averaging 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Paul defends the takedown at a woeful 37 percent. I'm not sure the Brazilian wants to be rolling on the mat with Craig given it is likely the latter's only potential path to victory, but Borralho is a big, heavy guy and would likely do just fine from top position.
Any bet on Craig is a hope the submission materializes. Those, in general, are far more difficult to predict than a knockout. Then, toss in the fact he's facing a younger, more athletic, more talented opponent who has lost once in his pro career, way back in 2015 via unanimous decision. In general, I try to stay away from fighters with only one path to victory, and that's clearly the case for Craig here. I think this, like the two fights prior, have the potential to be a rout.
That said, of the three massive underdogs on the main card, I like Craig the best. Caio can be low-output at times, which would theoretically, potentially, keep Paul afloat in a three-round bout. I still doubt he wins.
THE PICK: Borralho
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Jack Shore (17-1-0) v. Joanderson Brito (16-3-1)
DK Salaries: Shore ($7,700), Brito ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Shore (+140), Brito (-170)
THE PICK: Brito
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7-0) v. Iasmin Lucindo (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Kowalkiewicz ($7,000), Lucindo ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Kowalkiewicz (+320), Lucindo (-410)
THE PICK: Lucindo
Lightweight
Elves Brener (16-3-0) v. Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-1)
DK Salaries: Brener ($7,200), Orolbai ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Brener (+215), Orolbai (-265)
THE PICK: Orolbai
Featherweight
Jean Silva (12-2-0) v. William Gomis (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($8,600), Gomis ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-170), Gomis (+140)
THE PICK: Silva
Lightweight
Joaquim Silva (13-5-0) v. Drakkar Klose (14-2-1)
DK Salaries: Silva ($7,500), Klose ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Silva (+140), Klose (-170)
THE PICK: Silva
Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy (9-1-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (17-7-0)
DK Salaries: Ruffy ($8,400), Mullarkey ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Ruffy (-165), Mullarkey (+140)
THE PICK: Mullarkey
Women's Flyweight
Dione Barbosa (6-2-0) v. Ernesta Kareckaite (5-0-1)
DK Salaries: Barbosa ($8,900), Kareckaite ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Barbosa (-205), Kareckaite (+170)
THE PICK: Barbosa
Lightweight
Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) v. Vinc Pichel (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($9,300), Pichel ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-500), Pichel (+380)
THE PICK: Bonfim
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa (13-4-0) v. Kevin Borjas (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Costa ($8,200), Borjas ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Costa (-150), Borjas (+125)
THE PICK: Borjas
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 301 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
