This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 287 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight Championship
(C) Alex Pereira (7-1-0) v. Israel Adesanya (23-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($7,900), Adesanya ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Perreira (+115), Adesanya (-145)
Odds to Finish: -140
These two will meet for the second time in a span of five months. Pereira took Adesanya's championship at Madison Square Garden last November with a knockout victory 2:01 into Round 5. It was a reasonably close fight, albeit one Izzy was going to win had he not been stopped late.
Pereira looked comfortable the first time around, especially when you take into account he entered with all of seven professional fights under his belt. Perhaps it was because he defeated Adesanya twice back in their kickboxing days, but Izzy has seemingly defeated many men before the Octagon door even closes, and that wasn't the case here.
Not surprisingly, the two men appeared to be evenly matched on the feet. The striking numbers were eerily similar, with Adesanya landing 119-of-209 total strikes, while Pereira connected on 140-of-214 attempts.
The real surprise in the fight -- other than the finish -- was Izzy's willingness to try and wrestle to rack up control time. He connected on 1-of-4 takedowns, but finished with 6:34 worth of control time. He limited Alex's space a good portion of the fight, tied him up whenever possible and seemed to be a good position to win.
The finish was strange. There didn't appear to be anything visibly wrong with Adesanya entering the final round, but he quickly appeared exhausted and uncomfortable, seemingly out of nowhere, and Pereira poured it on, forcing referee Marc Goddard to step in.
My guess the first time around was that Izzy would retain in a close and competitive fight. I obviously got that wrong, but the vast majority of the rest of the bout played out as I expected, with a minor surprise regarding how willing Adesanya was to grapple.
Essentially, I don't see things changing much this time around. I love the fact Alex trains with former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Glover Teixeira in Connecticut full-time. Glover was an excellent wrestler, tough as nails and excelled in maximizing his positional advantages, which are all the things Pereira has to work on moving forward. We know the striking is world-class. He's really good.
We've reached the point, at least in my eyes, in which Izzy appears to be a clear value play. Pereira has already beaten him once and could very easily do so again, but Adesanya was the better fighter the majority of the first bout, and I'm willing to roll the dice on that again, especially at a discounted price.
UFC 287 PICK: Adesanya
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Gilbert Burns (21-5-0) v. Jorge Masvidal (35-16-0)
DK Salaries: Burns ($9,600), Masvidal ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Burns (-450), Masvidal (+360)
Odds to Finish: -155
Masvidal, one of the more popular fighters in the company, has lost three fights in a row and is without a win dating back to November 2019. That came against Nate Diaz at Madison Square Garden. Yes, those three losses came against Kamaru Usman (twice) and Colby Covington, but you eventually have to win one. Sadly for Jorge, things don't project to get a whole lot easier here.
Burns might not be on the same level as the very top guys (champion Leon Edwards, Usman, Covington) at 170 pounds, but he's not far off. He's only 2-2 in his past four bouts, but those defeats came against Usman -- who he had hurt badly in the opening moments of the fight -- and Khamzat Chimaev. Gilbert fought not all that long ago, against Neil Magny at UFC 283 in mid-January. The two stood around for about three minutes before Burns easily forced Magny to the ground and and submitted him with an arm-triangle choke.
As he been the case in his recent bouts, there doesn't appear to be a clear path to victory for Masvidal here. He's more volume than power on the feet, so a quick knockout doesn't seem likely to materialize. Jorge is an inch taller and will enter with a three-inch reach edge, but the physicality with which Burns fights seems likely to negate that with ease.
It goes without saying Masvidal will need to do whatever is necessary to remain upright. Jorge's 74 percent takedown defense is fairly strong, and Burns wouldn't be classified as a classic wrestler such as Covington, but he's big enough and strong enough to force Jorge to the mat without an ideal entry. If that happens, Masvidal is done. We've seen him pinned to the ground for long stretches at a time against opponents less talented than Burns.
The hefty price tag on Gilbert is a tad worrisome, but my guess is he still provides value. He's been knocked out just twice in 26 professional fights, so that seems unlikely to be a concern, and the advantage he has everywhere else will be overwhelming.
My guess is that he blows through Masvidal with his grappling, either earning a stoppage via submission or a taking a lopsided unanimous decision. I have zero interest in Jorge as a "punt" DK play. This is a horrific stylistic matchup for him.
UFC 287 PICK: Burns
Bantamweight
Rob Font (19-6-0) v. Adrian Yanez (16-3-0)
DK Salaries: Font ($7,700), Yanez ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Font (+150), Yanez (-185)
Odds to Finish: -125
Competing in one of the most loaded divisions in the sport, this essentially is a must-win for Font. He's lost back-to-back fights, albeit to quality competition in Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera. It's important to note that Font missed weight by 2.5 pounds for the Vera bout, his most recent in April 2022. It was Rob's first weight cutting issue since joining the UFC in July 2014, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment, but keep an eye on him on the scale on Friday.
Yanez bounced between multiple organizations early in his career including Legacy FC, LFA and Bellator before finding his stride upon his arrival in the UFC. He earned his opportunity with a 39-second knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2020 and has since gone on to win each of his first five official fights with the company, consisting of four knockouts and a split-decision win over the best opponent he has seen to date in Davey Grant.
Font has supreme confidence in his hands, and it shows when he fights. He has four career wins via submission and can wrestle in a pinch, but Font isn't going anywhere unless he's landing plenty of volume on the feet. He averages 6.38 significant strikes landed per minute, while absorbing 3.95. Yanez is even higher than that in terms of strikes landed, as he's at 6.62 per minute. The concern for Yanez is his defense. He's willing to eat a shot in order to land two of his own, and his 5.49 significant strikes absorbed per minute is reflective of that.
As I touched on early, the gap in the level of competition these two have gone up against is massive. Yanez has fought Grant, plus Miles Johns back when the two were in LFA. Font has faced Vera, Aldo, Cody Garbrandt, Marlon Moraes, Ricky Simon, Sergio Pettis, Pedro Munhoz, etc. I could keep going, but you get the idea.
The competition level aside, this seems like a good matchup for Yanez. I imagine he's going to have trouble down the road when he faces a fighter that turns his aggressiveness against him, but I don't think Font is that guy. He's just as reckless on the feet, and we've reached the point in which Yanez should have a real power edge in what projects to be a stand-up fight. That's enough to swing me in his direction.
UFC 287 PICK: Yanez
Welterweight
Kevin Holland (23-9-0, 1NC) v. Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-6-0)
DK Salaries: Holland ($9,300), Ponzinibbio ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Holland (-275), Ponzinibbio (+210)
Odds to Finish: -140
The undisputed MVP of the UFC's COVID-era coverage, Holland has had a strange career. He won a bunch of fights early in his time with the company but has really struggled of late, posting a 2-4 (1NC) record in his past seven bouts. Not surprisingly, those struggles have coincided with Holland facing better competition. His loss to Stephen Thompson in early-December was highly concerning. Going up agianst a 39-year-old opponent, Holland -- typically an excellent striker -- was pounded so badly his corner stopped the fight after Round 4. The broken hand Holland suffered during the fight assuredly didn't help matters, but it was a poor effort regardless.
Ponzinibbio won seven straight fights from December 2015 to November 2018. He then missed two-plus years due to injury and a staph infection, and he hasn't been the same fighter since returning. He's 2-3, with two split decision defeats and a knockout loss sprinkled in. He rebounded with a knockout win over late-notice replacement Alex Morono last December, but Santiago also looked pretty lousy in that fight until the stoppage. I consider it far more likely than not that the long layoff torpedoed any chance Ponzinibbio had of making a legit run at 170 pounds.
In a battle between two men who do their best work on the feet, Ponzinibbio is going to have to find a way to negate a massive size differential between the two. Holland will enter with a three-inch edge in height and a remarkable eight-inch edge in reach. Holland is also the better athlete of the two, and Santiago offers little in terms of grappling, averaging just 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Everything suggests Holland should win this fight without issue -- and he's priced as such -- but I'm still worried. We've seen some stinkers from Kevin lately in other spots which appeared to be positive for him.
I wouldn't completely rule out Ponzinibbio being able to constantly pressure Holland on the feet to the point in which Kevin appears baffled and out of sorts. Essentially, the path to victory is exactly what Thompson did to him last December.
I have enough concerns about both men, that there's enough value on the Ponzinibbio side to swing me in that direction. I wouldn't pick him, all things being equal, but all things aren't equal. He looks like an especially inviting DK play. There's absolutely zero chance there should be a $2400 gap in salary between the two.
UFC 287 PICK: Ponzinibbio
Bantamweight
Raul Rosas Jr. (7-0-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Rosas ($9,100), Rodriguez ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Rosas (-250), Rodriguez (+200)
Odds to Finish: -140
The youngest fighter in UFC history, Rosas -- who turned 18 years of age last October -- is coming off a 2:44 submission win over Jay Perrin at UFC 282 on December 10. Rosas has all of seven professional fights under his belt. He's won each of them, including five via submission and one via knockout. The decision win came on Dana White's Contender Series less than two months before his victory over Perrin. Rosas is neck-and-neck with Bo Nickal as the brightest prospect in the sport today.
Another fellow Contender Series alum, Rodriguez will be making his third official UFC appearance. He dropped a unanimous decision to Jonathan Pearce -- who is very, very good -- in his debut in February 2022 before rebounding to submit Joshua Weems in late-October. Rodriguez won't be be 26 years of age until mid-December, so there's some long-term potential here, as well.
This feels like an exceptionally difficult fight to handicap. The pedigree is obviously in Rosas' favor. Neither man has fought anyone of note other than the previously-mentioned Rodriguez bout against Pearce.
That said, there's an obviously and overwhelming gap between the two when it comes to grappling. Rodriguez was taken down twice by Weems, six times by Pearce and twice by "Reyes Cortez" in his Contender Series bout. Sporting a woeful 56-percent mark in terms of takedown defense, Christian would appear to be at real risk of being overwhelmed by the high-level grappling game of Rosas.
There's risk when backing a fighter this young, as it's a near certainty Raul is going to have some bumps in the road along the way, but I don't think it's going to happen here. Rosas has an elite skill to fall back upon in event of trouble, and from the looks of it, it's a trait Rodriguez hasn't displayed an ability to stop as of yet.
UFC 287 PICK: Rosas
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0, 1NC) v. Chris Curtis (30-9-0)
DK Salaries: Gastelum ($8,200), Curtis ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Gastelum (-130), Curtis (+110)
Odds to Finish: +150
UFC 287 PICK: Curtis
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson (18-10-0) v. Luana Pinheiro (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Waterson ($7,600), Pinheiro ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Waterson (+140), Pinheiro (-165)
Odds to Finish: +200
UFC 287 PICK: Pinheiro
Heavyweight
Chase Sherman (16-11-0) v. Karl Williams (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Sherman ($8,800), Williams ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Sherman (+350), Williams (-480)
Odds to Finish: -125
UFC 287 PICK: Williams
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0) v. Joe Pyfer (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Meerschaert ($7,500), Pyfer ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Meerschaert (+145), Pyfer (-175)
Odds to Finish: -450
UFC 287 PICK: Pyfer
Women's Strawweight
Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1) v. Lupita Godinez (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Calvillo ($7,000), Godinez ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Calvillo (+210), Godinez (-275)
Odds to Finish: +210
UFC 287 PICK: Godinez
Catchweight (160 pounds)
Ignacio Bahamondes (13-4-0) v. Trey Ogden (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Bahamondes ($9,400), Ogden ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Bahamondes (-335), Ogden (+280)
Odds to Finish: -135
UFC 287 PICK: Bahamondes
Featherweight
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10-0) v. Steve Garcia (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Nuerdanbieke ($8,900), Garcia ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Nuerdanbieke (-225), Garcia (+180)
Odds to Finish: -200
UFC 287 PICK: Nuerdanbieke
Women's Strawweight
Jaqueline Amorim (6-0-0) v. Sam Hughes (7-5-0)
DK Salaries: Amorim ($9,000), Hughes ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Amorim (-250), Hughes (+200)
Odds to Finish: -135
UFC 287 PICK: Amorim
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 287 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
