DraftKings MMA: TUF 24 Finale Preview

DraftKings MMA: TUF 24 Finale Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The flyweight division could a potentially historic shakeup on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

(Please note that DraftKings has altered their scoring system. The new point values are listed below and the rosters will now expand from 5 to 6 fighters).

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +3 PT
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Flyweight Championship

Demetrious Johnson (C) (24-2-1) v. Timothy Elliott (10-6-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Johnson ($10,200), Elliott ($5,400)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-1000), Elliott (+650)

In the interest of full disclosure, this was written before I knew who Johnson's opponent would be, although it would have read exactly the same no matter whom he would be facing. It is also more of a rant than anything else.

I fully understand that the UFC needs to do whatever they can to build up contenders in their thin flyweight division. Johnson has already defeated every single worthy opponent, many of them on multiple occasions. I understand that no one has any interest in seeing him fight the same guys over and over. It's part of the reason why he isn't all that marketable. Still, you're going to tell me that since the UFC can't find a worthy challenger on their roster, they are going to find one from a reality show? Give me a break.

This isn't a knock on Mighty Mouse, who does everything that is asked of him – that being steamrolling all challengers placed in front of him. Nor is it a knock on Elliott, who has more than earned his opportunity of a lifetime. It's just a bad set of circumstances for everyone involved with no clear ending in sight. If Johnson rolls through Elliott, no one is going to look worse than the UFC.

Elliott has fought six times for the UFC in the past, the last being in February 2015. He was 2-4 in those contests, although five of those six fights were against high quality opposition. I was always of the feeling that Elliott is a quality fighter and never deserved to be cut in the first place, but he simply isn't on Johnson's level.

I'm all for a fighter being given a opportunity to pull off what would probably be the greatest upset in the history of the sport, but I am not all for the next challenger to the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world being determined by a reality show. No disrespect to Elliott, but I think you know my pick here.

THE PICK: Johnson

Co-Main Event – Flyweight

Joseph Benavidez (24-4-0) v. Henry Cejudo (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Benavidez ($9,000), Cejudo ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Benavidez (-200), Cejudo (+170)

These are the two best flyweights in the world other than Johnson, and barring something extremely unforeseen, the winner of this fight is going to get the next shot at Mighty Mouse (assuming he beats Elliott)

Joe B is currently riding a five-fight winning streak dating back to April 2014. He has four losses in his professional career: two to Johnson, and two to current UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz. To recap, every single loss of Benavidez's career has come against the two guys that I currently consider to be the top-two pound-for-pound fighters in the world today. Joe B has a lot of power in his hands, although he hasn't shown much of it lately. He keeps himself in terrific shape, having seemingly not lost a single step despite now being 32-years-old.

A former Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, Cejudo was given his shot at Johnson in April. He was promptly knocked out in Round 1 in what would be the first loss of his professional career. Any success that Cejudo has in the cage is based off of his wrestling ability. The constant threat of the takedown allows him to vary his attacks on the feet. Cejudo's takedown accuracy over the course of his UFC career is a putrid 35 percent, but part of that is because he tends to try for so many takedowns.

I expect this to be a competitive fight that could easily go the distance. Joe B's last four wins have come via decision, as have all four of Cejudo's UFC victories. Benavidez has been one of the best fighters in the world for a long time, which makes him my pick and a deserved favorite. Still, I think Cejudo is a live underdog. Both his DraftKings salary and the Vegas odds are favorable for such a talented fighter.

THE PICK: Benavidez

Welterweight

Jake Ellenberger (31-11-0) v. Jorge Masvidal (30-11-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Ellenberger ($7,400), Masvidal ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Ellenberger (+220), Masvidal (-260)

I have been very critical of Ellenberger of late, although he silenced many of his critics with a first-round knockout win over Matt Brown in his last fight in July. Still, that is Ellenberger's only win in nearly four years over anyone who isn't Josh Koscheck. Brown's propensity to stand and trade played right into Ellenberger's strengths. It isn't going to be as easy against Masvidal. Ellenberger's footwork has all but vanished, and while he can win a fight if you stand in front of him and let him swing away, he is going to struggle immensely if his opposition forces him out of the pocket.

Masvidal is 1-2 in his last three fights dating back to almost exactly a year ago, but the two losses were split-decision setbacks against Lorenz Larkin and Benson Henderson. He took a clear unanimous decision from Ross Pearson in his last bout in July. Masvidal doesn't do much work in the submission game, but he lands a lot of strikes and he has always exhibited solid defense on the feet. He wins due to the volume that he throws, and that is the exact type of fighter who can give Ellenberger, who has shown a weak chin in the past, problems.

Ellenberger's win over Brown likely extended his career, but it does nothing for me in terms of his potential moving forward. He's still a well below-average welterweight at this point in his career. Other than landing one-punch that leads to an immediate stoppage, I don't see how Jake wins this fight. I just don't see anything to be gained by his continuing to fight, especially against dangerous opposition such as Masvidal.

THE PICK: Masvidal

Women's Bantamweight

Sara McMann (9-3-0) v. Alexis Davis (16-6-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McMann ($8,400), Davis ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: McMann (-170), Davis (+150)

Since the women first started competing in the UFC in early 2013, an argument can be made that no woman has had as disappointing of a run as McMann. A former Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling at the 2004 summer games in Athens, McMann's record in the UFC stands at 3-3. All three losses have come against either current (Amanda Nunes) or former (Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate) UFC Women's Bantamweight Champions, but McMann hasn't been all that impressive in her wins, either. McMann trains out of a small camp in South Carolina, and there are legitimate questions about whether she just isn't getting the quality of training that she needs on a daily basis. She has averaged nearly five takedowns (4.87) per fight over the course of her career, while connecting at a 68 percent clip. Her greatest chance of victory is to earn a boring, grinding decision.

Davis has been on the sidelines for more than 17 months after taking time off due to her pregnancy. Davis is best remembered for being obliterated by Rousey in 16 seconds when she got her shot at UFC gold in July 2014, but she has won her other four UFC fights, including victories over Sarah Kaufman, Jessica Eye and Liz Carmouche. She also has a wins over Invicta champion Tonya Evinger and current UFC Women's Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes (from back in their Strikeforce days). Davis won't overwhelm you in any one area, although there are no clear weaknesses in her game. McMann probably has more power, but I think Davis has more ways to win a fight.

The obvious question here is how much with Davis' time off impact her performance. Octagon rust is real, regardless of what Dominick Cruz may tell you. I trust Davis more moving forward than I do McMann, although Davis' takedown defense in her UFC career stands at just 50 percent, and that worries me in this fight. DFS players have to find upsets somewhere, and I think Davis is a good value here.

THE PICK: Davis

Other Bouts

Light Heavyweight

Ian Cutelaba (12-2-0, 1NC) v. Jared Cannonier (8-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Cutelaba ($8,900), Cannonier ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Cutelaba (-230), Cannonier (+190)
THE PICK: Cutelaba

Flyweight

Brandon Moreno (12-3-0) v. Ryan Benoit (9-4-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Moreno ($8,500), Benoit ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-135), Benoit (+115)
THE PICK: Moreno

Featherweight

Gray Maynard (13-6-1, 1NC) v. Ryan Hall (5-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Maynard ($8,100), Hall ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Maynard (-115), Hall (-105)
THE PICK: Hall

Bantamweight

Rob Font (12-2-0) v. Matt Schnell (9-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Font ($8,700), Schnell ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Font (-270), Schnell (+230)
THE PICK: Font

Lightweight

Dong Hyun Kim (13-8-3) v. Brendan O'Reilly (6-2-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Kim ($8,300), O'Reilly ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Kim (-135), O'Reilly (+115)
THE PICK: O'Reilly

Women's Strawweight

Kailin Curran (4-3-0) v. Jamie Moyle (3-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Curran ($8,600), Moyle ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Curran (-135), Moyle (+115)
THE PICK: Moyle

Middleweight

Elvis Mutapcic (15-4-1) v. Anthony Smith (25-12-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Mutapcic ($8,100), Smith ($8,100)
Vegas Odds: Mutapcic (-105), Smith (-115)
THE PICK: Smith

Light Heavyweight

Josh Stansbury (8-3-0) v. Devin Clark (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Stansbury ($8,000), Clark ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Stansbury (-110), Clark (-110)
THE PICK: Clark

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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