This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Hockey series.
Obviously, we are quite early into the new NHL season. That puts us in a place where the numbers we have seen this season are not substantive enough to tell us a ton, but numbers from last season can also only tell us so much. I look at a combination of numbers from last season and this season, but a big part of making DFS recommendations this early in the year comes down to overarching track records of players and trying to pinpoint what feels likely to be a trend. There are five NHL games Monday. Here are the players to target, and to avoid, for your DFS lineups.
GOALIE
Joseph Woll, TOR vs. CHI ($27): Eventually, it will likely be Woll's time in Toronto. He's seen limited NHL action, but has a .924 save percentage, and with Matt Murray's significant hip injury, Woll is at worst Ilya Samsonov's backup, and best his 1A. Toronto is giving Woll the start Monday, and it is a nice one to step into. Yes, Connor Bedard has proven exciting, but since the start of last season the Blackhawks are last in goals per game, and one rookie isn't going to replicate what guys like Patrick Kane and Max Domi did last season by himself.
GOALIE TO AVOID
Darcy Kuemper, WAS vs. CGY ($28): Kuemper was a late scratch for Washington's opener – congratulations on the new baby in the family – so this will likely be his season debut. However, Washington did not look good in that opening game, and I have questions about this defense. While the Flames have averaged 3.15 goals per contest since the start of last year, they have also averaged 35.8 shots on net per game. Calgary has had some poor puck luck, and oftentimes that begins to correct itself.
CENTER
J.T. Compher, DET at CLM ($16): In terms of guys with new teams and new roles, Compher has rewarded the Red Wings with three points through two games. I also find it notable he's averaged 20:30 in ice time thus far. While Elvis Merzlikins will likely be able to play after leaving Saturday's game due to feeling under the weather, and while he's off to a hot start to the season, I'm not buying it. Over the previous two seasons with Columbus he posted an .897 save percentage.
CENTER TO AVOID
Logan Cooley, ARI at NYR ($34): You want to be an early adopter. I get the instinct. Cooley is second only to Bedard in terms of rookie hype, and in his NHL debut he picked up two assists. That was against a Devils team on the second leg of a back-to-back, though, and both assists came on the power play. Igor Shesterkin is coming off a surprisingly poor start, but he has a career .923 save percentage and a Vezina to his name for a reason.
WING
Tyler Bertuzzi, TOR vs. CHI ($19): Auston Matthews' back-to-back hat tricks to start the season have gotten all the attention, but his new linemate Bertuzzi is off to a strong start with his new squad. He hasn't helped on any of Matthews' goals, but he has lit the lamp himself, and he's put nine shots on net. Petr Mrazek has had to play hero in both of his starts so far, as he's already faced 77 shots. Given that he has a career .907 save percentage, that kind of responsibility likely won't bode well for Chicago going forward.
Kirill Marchenko, CLM vs. DET ($15): Marchenko has learned to share. He had one of the wilder stat lines I can recall as a rookie, tallying 21 goals in 59 games but with only four assists. This year he has yet to light the lamp, but he already has three helpers. I'm a Wings fan, and their two games so far this season have certainly been rich with incident, and not always to my enjoyment. They've allowed four goals in both contests.
WINGS TO AVOID
Clayton Keller, ARI at NYR ($22): Keller, like his young teammate (but not linemate) Cooley, opened the season with two assists. Of course, getting to play 7:37 of power-play time against a team on the second leg of a back-to-back certainly helped. Shesterkin, as I noted, has a career .923 save percentage, so I expect him to bounce back after playing his first two games on the road.
Sam Reinhart, FLA at NJD ($19): Reinhart is something of a power-play specialist, playing on the third line but the first power-play unit. That helped him tally 27 of his 67 points last year. The problem, of course, is that you never know how much time with the extra man a team will get, and that's a particular concern against a good penalty kill. The Devils rank 10th on the penalty kill since the start of last season, and they have the same coach, goalies, and effectively the same roster.
DEFENSE
Adam Fox, NYR vs. ARI ($23): It's been business as usual for Fox to start the season, given that he's coming off two 70-point campaigns in a row. Two of his three points have come with the extra man, fitting for a guy with at least 23 power-play points in each of his last three seasons. The Coyotes have the 26th-ranked penalty kill since the start of last year, and Karel Vejmelka and his career .899 save percentage is back as their top goalie.
Luke Hughes, NJD vs. FLA ($15): Hughes doesn't have a point yet this season, but the time is coming. He's averaged 4:03 per game on the power play and tallied two shots on net in both of his outings. Meanwhile, Sergei Bobrovsky has turned back into a pumpkin, or rather the goalie that has been below average season after season aside from his nice run in the playoffs last year. Don't forget, he had a 3.07 GAA and .901 save percentage in 50 regular-season appearances in his prior campaign.
DEFENSE TO AVOID
John Carlson, WAS vs. CGY ($20): Carlson has long been a guy who does a lot of his damage on the power play, and now in his age-33 season that is not likely to change. He didn't pick up a point in Washington's opener, and it may be hard to do so Monday as well. While Jacob Markstrom hasn't shown he is going to fully rebound just yet, since the start of last season the Flames rank fourth on the penalty kill, even with Markstrom's struggles.
Seth Jones, CHI at TOR ($17): With the lack of talent on the blue line in Chicago, you might imagine Jones playing half the game. In actuality, he's averaged 24:54 of ice time, not remarkable for him, and that includes having played 5:03 per contest on the power play, a number that will go down. Jones is, essentially, the same player, but with worse teammates. Woll, as I noted, has a career .924 save percentage.
