As important as it is to look forward for the trends that could emerge in the coming weeks, it's also valuable to take a look back and reevaluate things based on new evidence. That's what I've been doing this week -- we're almost a quarter of the way into the season at this point, and that's enough of a sample size for me to figure out what went right and what went wrong on draft day. It's not hard for a fantasy team to look good on paper. You should always have confidence in the guys you selected, but don't let it blind you if they don't play the same way they did last season.
For starters, I'm realizing I drafted very poorly at goalie. I'm not afraid to swing for the fences on an early goalie selection, especially Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round. More often, I was settling for Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin and/or Marc-Andre Fleury a few rounds later to lead my crease. Just about all of the high-end goalies have had uncharacteristic struggles at times this year, which hasn't made things easy. Where things really went off the rails was how aggressively I went after Philipp Grubauer. I considered him on par with Juuse Saros -- both could be have for a similar draft selection, and I routinely paired them together. Saros has been fine for a middle-of-the-road Predators team, but I've had to cut bait with Grubauer in shallow formats, and I'm trying
As important as it is to look forward for the trends that could emerge in the coming weeks, it's also valuable to take a look back and reevaluate things based on new evidence. That's what I've been doing this week -- we're almost a quarter of the way into the season at this point, and that's enough of a sample size for me to figure out what went right and what went wrong on draft day. It's not hard for a fantasy team to look good on paper. You should always have confidence in the guys you selected, but don't let it blind you if they don't play the same way they did last season.
For starters, I'm realizing I drafted very poorly at goalie. I'm not afraid to swing for the fences on an early goalie selection, especially Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round. More often, I was settling for Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin and/or Marc-Andre Fleury a few rounds later to lead my crease. Just about all of the high-end goalies have had uncharacteristic struggles at times this year, which hasn't made things easy. Where things really went off the rails was how aggressively I went after Philipp Grubauer. I considered him on par with Juuse Saros -- both could be have for a similar draft selection, and I routinely paired them together. Saros has been fine for a middle-of-the-road Predators team, but I've had to cut bait with Grubauer in shallow formats, and I'm trying to ride out his poor play in leagues where the waiver wire is a bit thin.
On the flip-side of my Grubauer problem was that I didn't go after Jacob Markstrom nearly enough. He's been excellent under a Darryl Sutter system, with five shutouts already this year. His backup, Daniel Vladar, remains widely available, but he's only really an option in deeper formats. I did pull off a trade in one league -- I got Markstrom for Darcy Kuemper, straight up. I've since made my changes in net with James Reimer, Jonathan Quick, John Gibson and Jonathan Bernier to fill in the gaps. I don't mind rotating my lowest-ranked goalie around as long as my stars are doing fine.
My other big roster problem was on defense. A lot of my teams had some combination of Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano, Samuel Girard and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in the bottom-two spots on defense. Luckily, that problem has since been much easier to solve. Early in the season, I was in on Kevin Shattenkirk quickly, though I've converted a good portion of my interest in him to Ducks teammate Cam Fowler. Ditto for Rasmus Andersson and eventually Oliver Kylington, who's under-the-radar breakout has been impressive to watch thus far. Nate Schmidt, Moritz Seider, Evan Bouchard, Nicolas Hague and Shayne Gostisbehere have also helped patch up some of the problems on my teams, depending on the format. The key here: many defensemen outside of the top-20 are essentially interchangeable, so don't get too attached to your depth choices.
On draft day, I fearlessly filled up rosters with forwards, more than I typically would. I often prefer a balanced lineup with upside, but I had no problem taking a third center before even filling out my wing positions. That said, injuries to a couple of my favorites (Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty) have hampered my scoring output at times. Luckily for me, I believed in Troy Terry early on. I've found myself often going to the waiver wire to fill one hole in the lineup, and ending up making three or four moves because there's so much scoring talent available (too much for one article alone). I've given up on the Taylor Hall comeback tour, and I also don't have much faith left in Jonathan Toews, but finding viable replacements has been fairly simple even on a week-to-week basis.
The point of this reflection exercise is a simple one, although not one that's easy to remember at times. Nothing is set in stone. The breakout player of one week could skid to six games without a point in the blink of an eye. Our opinions of players must be ever-evolving if we are to maintain any advantage of our opponent. That also means we have to admit when we were wrong, or at the very least, acknowledge we over-estimated a player's potential. For every late-round sleeper that didn't pan out, there's an early-season add on Lucas Raymond to follow. Don't be afraid to make changes based on what the stats say. At the same time, context matters -- I held onto Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson because of their chemistry last year, and it's beginning to pay off now.
To wrap up the week, I have a handful of players who made an impression this week -- albeit, not as many as usual. This was the kind of week where the stars shined and carried their teams and the depth forwards didn't exactly stand out. Nonetheless, I'd like to highlight Seth Jarvis first and foremost. He's looked great since he entered the lineup on Halloween, picking up five points in nine games, including a goal in each of his last three outings. What really catches my eye here is how quickly he's earned the trust of head coach Rod Brind'Amour to play alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov on the Hurricanes' top line. This team is deep with a capital D this year, and the rookie Jarvis is adding to that.
I love to point out players that are capable of little surges throughout the year, and right now, it's Esa Lindell time. He's picked up four assists in his last three games. There's not much that isn't known about the 27-year-old's game -- he's a steady, top-four defenseman who piles up hits and blocked shots like crazy. He's got roughly 30-point potential, but there's two or three stretches every season where the Finn turns up the heat on offense. Ride the run for a couple of weeks and then cycle him out for the next hot blueliner.
I've likely mentioned Nazem Kadri before this week, but I'll do it again quickly to reiterate that he's on an eight-game point streak. He's got four goals and 11 assists during his streak. Nathan MacKinnon (lower body) is probably out another week or two, and while Kadri remains on the second line, he's carrying more of the scoring responsibility. The way he's producing right now is too good to let it go to waste among the fantasy free agents.
It's really tough to believe in sustained offense for any Coyote, but Lawson Crouse has my attention in November. He's picked up six points and a punishing 29 hits in nine games this month. The Panthers had to have seen something in his game to select him 11th overall in 2015, and the Coyotes are finally utilizing him in a top-six role regularly. In formats where hits are counted, he's a must-have.
There's not going to be an easy way to replace Brayden Point (upper body) now that he's out indefinitely, but fantasy managers may want to consider Anthony Cirelli for that purpose. He scored twice in 24:31 of ice time in Sunday's 5-4 shootout win over the Wild, and it seems like the uptick in ice time will last. He's been solid with six goals and six helpers in 17 contests already, and fantasy managers can likely remember his 44-point campaign in 2019-20 with fondness. He's no Point, but he's the next man up -- let his opportunity be yours as well.
By the end of October, I was willing to give up on Reilly Smith, but he's got my attention again. The winger has surged to the tune of five goals and four assists in 10 games in November, and that's with William Karlsson (foot) and Jonathan Marchessault (COVID-19 protocols) missing time. Smith seems to be better after the forced breakup of the Golden Misfits line, and that should benefit him in the long run as he shows more ability to play with varied linemates.
A pair of Kraken have finally started to lead the charge on offense, even as the team's defense has faltered. Jaden Schwartz made his presence known with a four-point effort against the Capitals on Sunday, running his season total up to four goals and 16 points in 18 contests. Meanwhile, Jordan Eberle saw a seven-game point streak snapped Sunday, but he racked up seven goals and three assists during the run. Both forwards were expected to play top-line roles, although head coach Dave Hakstol has rightfully shown no hesitation to mix things up with the struggling expansion team. With their recent surges, Schwartz and Eberle are playing more like they were expected to from the start, and both can be still be found on a lot of fantasy waiver wires.
Finally, I'll go out there and make a case for Rasmus Ristolainen. Personally, his ability to find a way into a coach's doghouse scares me off more often than not, but the Finn has collected three assists in his last seven games after a glacial start on offense. While true defense isn't exactly his strong suit, the 49 hits and 24 blocked shots he's collected in 14 contests carry value in formats that count those categories. His ice time has dipped to 20:55 per game this season after he spent six straight years above 22 minutes with the Sabres. His offense is better than his slow start suggested, and that's worth taking a risk on if you're in deep trouble on the blue line.
With that, I sign off for the week. For my American readers, enjoy Thanksgiving, and I'll have a side dish of players and stats ready for you next week.
