Frozen Fantasy: What is Great Goaltending?

Can you win with subpar goaltending? Maybe I should restate that question. How should we define "great" goaltending? 

Yes, I also hate the word "should". But it felt OK here, oddly enough.

I've been noodling this for a while, and it consumed my thoughts Friday night when the Wild honored Marc-Andre Fleury for his 1,000th game AND for passing Patrick Roy into second place in regular-season wins all-time (553). What a great tribute.

The Flower is one of my favorite guys in the NHL. I appreciate his skills, but I adore his affable, trickster personality. He never lets his ego get in the way. And I love that jokester approach. Life is too short to not laugh, especially at yourself.

Fleury has been a top goalie. He helped me win a few titles. And he's also been in the crosshairs of criticism at times. Such is the life of an NHL goalie. 

Like now, to be honest. Connor Hellebuyck (100 percent Yahoo!) is one of the best-of-the-best, and his production this year is top of the stat class. But studs like Andrei Vasilevskiy (97 percent Yahoo!) and Igor Shesterkin (99 percent Yahoo!) sit outside the top-30 in save percentage and are in the mid-20s for GAA – these are core fantasy categories. 

Igor is actually tied with Mackenzie Blackwood (below) and Alexandar Georgiev (99 percent Yahoo!) for 39th among qualified twinetenders on the save percentage list. 

Afterthoughts from last season, including Alex Lyon (64 percent Yahoo!) and Joey Daccord (79 percent Yahoo!), have been way more valuable in fantasy. Daccord is seventh on the Yahoo! goalie list for overall value to date. Lyon? 11th. 

Vasilevskiy? Try 37th. Shesterkin is 49th. Cripes, Sam Montembeault (below) is only 54th. 

I get it. You can't predict any of this. I don't think you ever could. You can't win without great goaltending, but you can win without star netminding. Success doesn't have to come with a big name on the jersey. In fact, it may not. And think of the extra offense you might get if you roll the dice on a few mid goalies, instead of a costly star. 

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Mackenzie Blackwood, G, San Jose (12 percent Yahoo!) – Hear me out. Blackwood has won three consecutive starts and is 3-0-1 in his last four. During that span, he's thrown down a .951 save percentage, one shutout and only six goals against. This work feels somewhat legit – Blackwood and the Sharks beat the Rangers and Kraken. Would I rely on him every game? No freaking way. His overall results are horrendous. But sometimes a risky bet can still be a good bet, especially if you're desperate. Just be ready to move on fast if it doesn't work.

Quinton Byfield, LW/C, Los Angeles (38 percent Yahoo!) – I've always been a Byfield fan girl – his skills, size and speed are too delicious to ignore. And since his move to wing this season, he has started to consolidate his game. Take out two games missed due to illness before the All-Star break, and Byfield has a five-game, eight-point streak on the go, and it includes four goals. You may never see him on this list again – he'll be on 70-80 percent of rosters next year. 

Pierre Engvall, LW, NY Islanders (0 percent Yahoo!) – Engvall is a sneaky player who "might" work for deep leagues. He was miscast in Toronto, in large part because they expected him to be a power guy because of his size. On the Island, he's seen for who he really is – a responsible finesse pivot with incredible speed and just enough skill. Engvall isn't going to get loads of points. But he had a modest two-game, two-point streak going into Saturday, and a new coach known to bring out the best in his players. Engvall may do nothing with this – he was held off the board against Calgary Saturday afternoon. But he might skip along for a couple weeks with modest, yet steady output. Watch him for a couple more games before you decide. 

Nick Foligno, LW, Chicago (3 percent Yahoo!) – Yes, any Hawk is a sketchy recommendation. But Foligno is a leader on and off the ice. And at 36, he's stepping into the offensive void on a young, thin roster with goals in back-to-back games heading into Tuesday and three in his last five along with 21 shots and 13 hits. Foligno isn't for everyone, but might be a short-term option in deep formats. Someone on the Hawks needs to score… right?

Samuel Girard, D, Colorado (15 percent Yahoo!) – Girard is still out there in too many leagues. Since mid-January, he's posted nine points, including two goals, in 11 games. There's only one PPP over that stretch, but there are 16 shots and nine hits in a whole lot of ice time. 'Nuf said? 

Jonathan Huberdeau, LW/C, Calgary (43 percent Yahoo!) – Last call for Huberdeau, who has quietly delivered 15 points, including 11 helpers, in his last 15 games. Coming out of the break, he ripped off five points (two goals, three assists) in three, and that includes three PPP. The Flames seem destined to be torn down by trades, yet they are proud players. And they aren't going down quietly.

Alexis Lafreniere, LW, NY Rangers (32 percent Yahoo!) – Like others this week, Lafreniere has been on this list before. All he's done this season is start to consolidate his skills and potential, and he's flirting with the possibility of his first 50-point effort. Heading into Monday, Lafreniere has four points, including three goals, and 14 shots in his last four games. He won't give you much power-play production. But he's firing a lot more shots and hitting less than in the past. That's an evolution in confidence if I've ever seen one – he doesn't have to be someone he's not to fit in. Lafreniere may never be an offensive stud. But he could be a 70-point player as early as next year if he keeps this going. I'm willing to watch for that up close. 

Sam Montembeault, G, Montreal (26 percent Yahoo!) – Montembeault continues to show he might be the Habs' goalie of the future. Sure, his team is bad. But his .909 save percentage is top-25 for goalies with 15 or more starts. That's better than Jake Oettinger and Juuse Saros (both 97 percent Yahoo!). Montembeault laid a massive egg a couple of weeks ago against Boston (eight goals allowed). But that's his only sketchy effort of 2024. Excluding that stinker, Montembeault has delivered a 5-2-1 record and .932 save percentage in eight other starts. The Habs aren't bound for the playoffs, but they do have a lot to prove for next year, so Montembeault might finally get the scoring support he deserves. 

Alex Newhook, C, Montreal (2 percent Yahoo!) – Who knows what Newhook can do after missing more than two months of work. But he's talented and immediately slotted into the Habs' top-six and PP1 during his return Saturday. That's the kind of opportunity he needs to match his talent. Center is deep, so Newhook is a better risk in formats with forward designations. He may surprise. Worst case, watch his game for intel regarding your 2024 draft. 

Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa (11 percent Yahoo!) – The Sens are starting to trend upward, and Pinto is part of that improved play. I'm actually a bit surprised he's spun up to NHL speed this fast. He was great Saturday night – he even replaced Tim Stutzle (97 percent Yahoo!) on PP1 at the end of the second period. Pinto has back-to-back multi-point games (two goals, three assists). And his faceoff work has been excellent – he clearly invested a lot of his suspension time to dot work. I don't think Pinto can continue at quite this pace, though he has something to prove after the suspension embarrassment. A great performance will mean a better contract this offseason. And that's a powerful motivation. 

Ryan Pulock, D, NY Islanders (4 percent Yahoo!) – Pulock is pretty much a fantasy afterthought. And that's exactly why he caught my eye. Pulock returned this week and picked up a power-play goal in a win over the Bolts on Thursday. He lays opponents out and blocks pucks while producing two 35-plus point seasons earlier in his career. Yep. Shake off the perception of what you think Pulock is to see what he really does. And that's deliver steady, modest multi-category production. He's a deep-league consideration. 

Jonathan Quick, G, NY Rangers (44 percent Yahoo!) – I never thought Quick would ever be on my list. But here we are. His game hasn't deteriorated like many thought. Nor has he disappeared behind the one-and-only Igor Shesterkin (99 percent Yahoo!). Quick has been excellent this year and especially lately as Shesterkin has curiously scuffled. The back-up bookended the All-Star break with wins and was 3-0-0 with only four goals allowed in three straight starts. And that included victories over the Bolts and Avs. The murmurs of a netminding controversy on X are hot air. But I do think the Rangers have learned they can confidently play Quick and ease up on Igor's workload. So stick Quick on your roster. And follow @MikeKellyNHL (the link above). X is mostly static, but his account is show-don't-tell smart. 

Teuvo Teravainen, LW/RW, Carolina (36 percent Yahoo!) – Teravainen is a great playmaker with a resume littered with injury absences. As much as I love his ability, I know I carry a bias – those injuries have burned me in the past. This year, Teravainen has been healthy (huge knock on my forehead for putting that in pixels), yet he hadn't really put up the points you'd expect. But what a Thursday night. The Canes dominated the Avs and Teravainen racked up four assists. He had nine points, including seven helpers and two power-play goals, in five games heading into Saturday and was held off the scoresheet in a tight defensive game, like almost everyone on that ice. Go get Teravainen now because someone else will. 

Dustin Wolf, G, Calgary (4 percent Yahoo!) – I like Wolf, and I believe he can beat the odds as a 6-foot twinetender. So it's time to speculate. Dan Vladar (2 percent Yahoo!) is out with a lower-body injury and Jacob Markstrom (80 percent Yahoo!) may be on the block. The Flames are in reboot mode, and Wolf may be given a metaphorical runway to take flight. Somehow, this feels a bit safer than what the Sabres did to Devon Levi (30 percent Yahoo!). It's too hard to trust the Buffalo with much of anything. Sorry, Tim Schuler (one of our big bosses) hahaha. 

Back to goalies. 

Subpar goaltending destroys your chances. But so does overinvesting in a star who sputters. 

Watching Fleury on Friday made me think of Grant Fuhr, a Hall-of-Fame goalie and a player declared among the NHL's top-100 all-time players. Such a winner. Old footage of his acrobatics are worth every watch. 

I looked up his stats and did a palm plant. Yes, what I'm about to say is a reflection of the offense-first NHL at the time. But every era is the same – you can only compare today to today. 

Fuhr's all-time save percentage is .887. You read that right. I pulled stats for 1986-87, one of his Cup-winning years with the Oil. And you guessed it – he wasn't at the top of the league. Heck, Kelly Hrudey's stats with the Isles that year were equal to Fuhr's. Hrudey was a scrappy goalie, but nowhere near Fuhr. Yet he delivered the regular-season mail almost exactly the same way. 

I bet anyone playing fantasy back then would have fought to get Fuhr. And Hrudey might have been sitting on the wire. 

So maybe we've been overrating goalies for decades. Honestly, I don't know. That would require more analysis and argument than I have time to do. I do think we always need to challenge our assumptions and pick apart our own patterns. And relying on star goalies is a good place to start. 

If the game changes, then why don't we? Darwin said to adapt or die. That's a bit harsh for this context, but it kind of applies. Evolution of strategy is critical, unless you like to lose. I do not. 

Until next week.