Blue Line Buzz: Back-End Trends

OK, yeah, it wasn't supposed to be this bad.

A week after lamenting Colorado's defense and how much they'll miss Erik Johnson, they allowed 17 goals in four games this past week. And that's including a 3-1 win against Toronto on Sunday, in which they allowed 52 shots. Had Semyon Varlamov not turned into a brick wall, it was going to be another ugly game in the making.

Teams don't stay good forever, and 20 years ago the Avalanche were on top of the world. In the 11 seasons since the lockout, they've made the playoffs just four times, getting swept in the second round twice and losing in the first round twice. Their goals against, which averaged 196.1 per season since winning the Stanley Cup, is on pace for 261 this season, which would be a franchise worst.

Fantasy owners will look at this team and can't help but shy away despite their intriguing talent. Tyson Barrie has scored 53 and 49 points in his past two seasons and has the talent to be a top-notch power-play quarterback, but his shooting percentage is at a career low and he has a minus-12 rating in 27 games.

At this rate, no matter how good Barrie is, he won't be able to survive this sinking ship. Of course, there's always the off-chance the Avalanche turn things around, but it certainly doesn't feel imminent. If fantasy owners can't stomach Barrie's plummeting plus-minus and the Avs' similarly plummeting stock, it might not be a bad idea to sell. He's still good enough to fetch a second-line forward and a valuable fantasy asset right now, and you don't want his value to decline so far that he's wasting a spot on your bench because he's too good to be in the free agent pool but also unplayable because his numbers aren't pretty.

Studs of the Week:

Dougie Hamilton, Flames – Hamilton vaults up the Big Board with three goals and an assist this past week, and the Flames are on a roll with six straight wins. His ice time continues to be limited because Glen Gulutzan has far better options at even strength, but Hamilton's made the most of what he's been given. He's on pace for a 45-point season.

Erik Karlsson, Senators – He was held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games against the Kings and the Ducks, in which they were outscored 9-2. Prior to that, however, Karlsson had scored a goal in three consecutive games, and with five assists this week now leads all defensemen with 20 assists.

Seth Jones, Blue Jackets – He scored his first goal since returning from an injury on Nov. 21, and in his past six games now has a goal and four assists. Even though he doesn't have as much upside as Zach Werenski on offense, he is still the No. 1 defenseman in Columbus, and he'll easily be able to pick up a few assists here and there more playing on one of the league's best offensive teams.

Rasmus Ristolainen, Sabres – He averaged 30 minutes of ice time per game last week and stole the thunder in a McDavid vs. Eichel matchup when he blasted a rocket past Cam Talbot in overtime for his first goal of the season. With Zach Bogosian (knee), Josh Gorges (foot) and Dmitry Kulikov (back) all missing time at various points this season, Dan Bylsma has had to go back on his promise to limit Ristolainen's ice time and lessen the load on his shoulders, but the 22-year-old seems to be doing just fine. He has 17 points in 27 games and is on pace for 50.

Calvin de Haan, Islanders – The Islanders have won five of their past seven games, including two straight wins against the Blues and Rangers in which de Haan blocked a total of 11 shots. He's a very dependable defenseman and certainly one of the league's most underrated, but doesn't register on the fantasy radar because he doesn't score very often. But, in leagues that count peripherals, he can be quite valuable with his 42 shots, 41 hits and 76 blocked shots — two shy of Karlsson and Mark Giordano for the league lead.

Duds of the Week:

Alexei Emelin, Canadiens – His ill-advised clipping penalty on Joe Colborne in a 10-1 blowout against the Avs led to 10 PIM, which is great news for fantasy owners but an absolute head-scratching move for hockey fans. It was a dangerous hit that wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome of the game.

Torey Krug, Bruins – Just when you thought he was turning a corner, Krug puts up just one assist in five games with the Bruins mired in a three-game slump. His ice time has been cut back a bit recently, as he's averaging just 21:45 per game after receiving over 23 minutes during the last week of November. It will only get harder with road dates against the Habs and Pens coming up, which will then be followed by a visit from the Ducks and Kings.

Nikita Zadorov, Avalache – Zadorov was a minus-3 in a 10-1 loss to Montreal, and even though he picked up a fighting major and five blocked shots in a 3-1 win against Toronto the following night, it's worth noting that the Avs allowed 52 shots on goal — so it's not so much that they bounced back as it is Semyon Varlamov saving their butts. He's still got a long ways to go before he's a competent NHL defenseman, and his ice time dipped for the third straight game.

Recommended Pickup:

Ivan Provorov, Flyers – The 19-year-old rookie played a season-high 24:56 in a 1-0 win against Detroit on Sunday, and has scored two goals and two assists in seven games for the month of December. With Shayne Gostisbehere struggling with the sophomore blues and Michael Del Zotto constantly getting benched, Provorov now leads all Flyers defensemen in average ice time with 20:38 per game. He hasn't gotten much ice time on the power play this season, but he's so offensively gifted that Dave Hakstol can't ignore him for too much longer, and he's got far more upside than Brandon Manning. He has 14 points in 38 games this season, good enough for 28th in the league among defensemen, and has a chance to put up more points in favorable matchups against the Avs and Stars this week — especially with Mark Streit (shoulder) out for the next two weeks.

The Big Board:

^ = stock rising
˅ = stock dropping