This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
It's finally here, the Frozen Four at the Excel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota starts with semifinal clashes between Boston College vs Michigan and Boston University vs Denver on Thursday. Despite the sheer volume of DI collegiate programs in the State of Hockey, no team will have a clear home-ice advantage this year. Since the bracket was released, it has seemed like an inevitable clash between bitter rivals BU and BC but can Denver or Michigan spoil the Beantown party?
Semifinal Matchups April 11
Boston University vs Denver Total Under 7.0 (-125)
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Denver's Matt Davis faced 72 shots in the previous two tournament matchups while giving up just two goals for a ridiculous .972 save percentage. But this won't be a cakewalk for the Pioneers' backstop considering BU racked up 12 goals in routs against RIT and Minnesota.
There isn't a ton of value in backing Boston University at -166 on the Moneyline and, while they've covered in the previous two contests, it feels risky to take BU -1.5 goals on the Puckline just to get +135 value. To that end, the smart play is to back Davis to at least keep the scoring down and target under the 7.0 total. If you want to go value hunting, Lane Hutson scored in each of the prior to games for BU and comes in at solid +180 value or you could take Denver to pull off the upset at +130, but it's the total market for me that makes the most sense.
Boston College -1.5 Win Over Michigan (+120)
Based on the odds, Michigan faces a bigger uphill battle in knocking off one of the two favorites, coming in at +140 on the Moneyline, though the fact that Boston College needed overtime to get past Quinnipiac in the second round should make this a closer matchup.
Taking the over seems nearly a lock when you consider BC racked up 11 goals in their last two games while Michigan put up nine combined goals against their previous opponents. The concern is giving up -135, so the better play would be to include the total in a parlay option or move to the alternate total of 7.5 to get a +110 value by taking the push out of play.
As good as Michigan has been this season, they still finished fourth in the Big 10 standings this year and managed to get through with an at-large bid. This is a Boston final in the making, which keeps me backing Boston College on the Puckline at +120.
Frozen Four Updated Futures
Boston University National Champion +225
If you checked out the previous two iterations of this article, you will see I've continued to back Boston University because they return better value than Boston College in what continues to be an inevitable matchup between the two rivals. To that end, I'm sticking with Boston University, though hopefully, you got them at the onset of the tournament when they were +500 as they are now down to +225. For their part, Boston College is still the favorite at +150 which isn't a significant drop from the +215 value you got before the second round.
Between the two long shots, if they can continue to get otherworldly netminding, there is a chance the nine-time NCAA champions Denver University can make their way into the final. The odds back this up as the Pioneers come in at +425, just slightly ahead of the Michigan Wolverines who are +475.
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Frozen Four Picks
- Boston University vs Denver Total Under 7.0 (-125)
- Boston College -1.5 Win Over Michigan (+120)
- Boston University National Champion +225
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