This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Scottsdale, Arizona
TPC Scottsdale - Par 71 - 7,261 yards
Field - 132 Entrants
Purse - $7.3M
The Preview
The Greatest Show on Grass invites a frenzied environment as the notorious 163-yard 16th hole takes center stage, earning a reputation as the most electrifying scene around the PGA Tour. As a Scottsdale resident living less than 15 minutes from the prominent venue, you can bet I'll be right there among the largest crowd in golf causing an absolute ruckus under the sun. The Waste Management Phoenix Open features a slightly limited 132-entrant field, so a larger percentage of players will make the cut as even daily fantasy gamers are afforded a bit more adventurism when it comes to building lineups. An essentially zero percent chance of precipitation combined with a tame breeze and high temps reaching into the upper-70s throughout the weekend should allow for promising scoring conditions as we look ahead to value plays in Yahoo contests at TPC Scottsdale.
Recent Champions
2019 - Rickie Fowler
2018 - Gary Woodland
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
2013 - Phil Mickelson
2012 - Kyle Stanley
2011 - Mark Wilson
2010 - Kyle Stanley
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Off-the-Tee
GIR percentage
Proximity
Birdie or better average
Yahoo Value Picks - based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Justin Thomas - $49
Betting favorite Jon Rahm is definitely worthy of the $50 price tag he carries at the top of this week's board, but we'll pivot to Justin Thomas with a dollar discount despite the latter coming off a missed cut at the Sony Open. Thomas' MC at Waialae Country Club was preceded by an extremely stressful playoff victory at the Tournament of Champions, and he really struggled with his short game as he lost nearly 4.5 strokes with the flat stick at the Sony. Thomas has gained an average of 7.6 strokes from tee to green over his last five measured events, however, which is much higher than Rahm's 4.8 strokes gained tee to green during this same span. Regression on the greens should be in store for Rahm, who gained almost six strokes putting en route to his runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open last week.
Webb Simpson - $45
Simpson, who lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff at the 2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open, will be looking to collect his fifth top-10 in 10 career appearances at the venue this time around. Not including the 18-man Hero World Challenge in December, Simpson has finished 3-2-T7 throughout his last three events while gaining no less than 5.3 strokes tee to green in each of those performances. The 11th-ranked player in the world leads the PGA Tour in birdie average and sits fifth in SG: Approach so far this season.
Gary Woodland - $42
A missed cut at Torrey Pines this past week could help shy ownership away from this recent past champion, having placed T7-Win at the WMPO over the last two years. Woodland's MC at the Farmers Insurance Open shouldn't be too concerning as he lost 2.3 strokes putting in just two rounds, though he still managed to gain strokes from tee to green in his fourth straight measured events. He's finished T7 or better in four of six starts dating back to the CJ Cup.
Glue Guys
Brandt Snedeker - $35
Snedeker's love of Torrey Pines continued to shine through at the Farmers Insurance Open as he tied for third and gained three strokes on his approach shots while also finding success on the greens. The 39-year-old has missed the cut at TPC Scottsdale just once in 12 career attempts and he currently ranks seventh on Tour in par-4 scoring.
Bubba Watson - $33
Watson rebounded from finishing dead last at the Hero World Challenge by leading the field in SG: T2G and tying for sixth in San Diego last week, so he figures to be a popular play here given he's racked up a quartet of top-5s at TPC Scottsdale since 2012 alone. The powerful lefty gained over four strokes on approach shots at Torrey Pines, but he's also gained strokes with the flat stick in three consecutive measured tournaments. Throughout the early portion of the 2019-20 campaign, Watson is fifth on Tour in driving distance, seventh in holes per eagle, eighth in proximity from 150-175 yards and fourth in putting from inside 10 feet.
Bargain Bin
Daniel Berger - $26
Berger owns three finishes of T11 or better in five voyages to TPC Scottsdale, and he's also missed just one cut in his last 11 starts despite falling to 160th in the Official World Golf Ranking. Berger gained 4.4 strokes tee to green at the American Express and 5.3 T2G at the Sony Open to begin the 2020 calendar year on a positive note from a ball-striking perspective.
Branden Grace - $24
Grace at just $24 is blatant theft as he comes in at 40-1 to win according to GolfOdds.com, so expect inflated ownership for the 2019 WMPO runner up. The South African has already tallied a win in 2020 at the European Tour's South African Open, which followed another top-3 performance at the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
Charley Hoffman - $24
Hoffman disappointed from the Mayakoba Golf Classic to the American Express as he went MC-MC-T61 during this stretch, but he found a spark during Sunday's final round at Torrey Pines as he played his last 10 holes of the tournament in seven-under-par. He earned runner-up honors at the WMPO back in 2009 and has made the cut in nine of 13 appearances here, but he's also 22nd in birdie average this season.
