This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
THE PLAYERS Championship
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
TPC Sawgrass - Par 72 - 7,189 yards
Field - 154 entrants
Purse - $15M
The Preview
A nearly $6M increase in purse size accompanies the Florida Swing's transition from Arnie's place to TPC Sawgrass, where the PGA Tour's so-called fifth major was halted after just one round of play in 2020 due to the initial wave of COVID-19 concerns.
Stacked fields have been a common theme ever since last year's three-month hiatus, and this week will be no different, with an elite contingent of 154 entrants battling for the $2.7M top prize. Designed by the legendary Pete Dye, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass features numerous water hazards -- none more recognizable than the pond that surrounds an island green on the par-3 17th -- and a tantalizing risk-reward opportunity on the 18th tee. Opportunities for scoring chances on either side of par loom throughout the relatively short par-72 layout, which enhances volatility, as the leaderboard looks like a randomizer was clicked in certain years.
After conditions became quite difficult this past weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, it will be a pleasant change of pace for the PLAYERS, as favorable weather is expected throughout the event.
Recent Champions
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Webb Simpson
2017 - Si Woo Kim
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Matt Kuchar
2011 - K.J. Choi
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Birdie or better percentage
SG: Off-the-Tee
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Dustin Johnson - $47
Justin Thomas' placement atop the salary board at $48 this week is puzzling, given that he missed the cut in two of four starts. Despite a T54 at the WGC-Workday Championship in his most recent showing, Johnson is still the best player teeing it up in Ponte Vedra Beach. The betting odds back that up, as there is obvious gap between he and Thomas. Johnson posted one of the worst putting performances of his career at The Concession, losing 10 strokes with the flat stick. However, he gained at least three strokes on his approaches in five consecutive measured events. He's also placed no worse than T17 throughout his past three visits to TPC Sawgrass, including a T5 here in 2019 at 13-under-par.
Patrick Cantlay - $43
A withdrawal prior to the WGC-Workday Championship could help curb Cantlay's lineup exposure, but he's now had multiple weeks to recover from an upset stomach and dehydration while continuing to rank No. 1 in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds. Aside from losing 0.6 strokes on the greens at Riviera Country Club, Cantlay has gained strokes in every single category dating to his runner-up finish at the American Express. This fairly ridiculous feat translates to an average of 8.07 strokes gained from tee to green per event through his last three starts. On the season, Cantlay resides fifth in birdie average, second in scrambling and 10th in one-putt percentage.
Webb Simpson - $42
Sandwiching his 2018 PLAYERS Championship victory with a pair of T16s in 2017 and 2019, Simpson heads back to TPC Sawgrass with top-6s in two of three starts dating back to the Sony Open, where he gained nine strokes putting to ultimately tie for fourth. Simpson's ball-striking came around at the WGC-Workday Championship, however, gaining 10.4 strokes from tee-to-green while excelling in proximity from 125-175 yards en route to a T6. Arranged between Rory McIlroy ($43) and Viktor Hovland ($42), Simpson is another candidate for deflated rostership in the upper tier.
Glue Guys
Paul Casey - $36
Not only does Casey grade sixth or better in SG: T2G, SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green over his last 12 rounds on U.S. soil, but he also went overseas and picked up a win at the European Tour's Omega Dubai Desert Classic before tying for 12th at the Saudi International during this stretch of brilliant play. The Englishman gained just north of five strokes on his approaches last week at Arnie's place, and poor course history at TPC Sawgrass should help keep the casual gamer from ballooning his usage.
Scottie Scheffler - $36
Scheffler will make his PLAYERS debut as the PGA Tour's leader in total driving, ranking top-30 among his peers in both accuracy and distance off the tee this season. The former Texas Longhorn has strung together three straight top-20s since a T7 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, most recently finishing solo-fifth at the WGC-Workday Championship, where he gained a season-high 9.2 strokes from tee-to-green and 3.9 strokes on his approaches.
Louis Oosthuizen - $35
Oosthuizen once again sent the PGA DFS community into a frenzy last Thursday with one of his infamous WDs, but this time he didn't even show up to the course or have a mid-round injury to blame, as Pat Perez took his spot in the Arnold Palmer Invitational field after lineups had already locked. As those who were burned by Oosty this past week vow to fade him for the rest of eternity, an opportunity to target the expectedly-unpopular South African at TPC Sawgrass presents itself. He's been on fire with the flat stick through his first three tournaments of the 2021 calendar year, ranking first in SG: Putting over his last 12 rounds. Oosthuizen also gained a combined nine strokes from tee-to-green on the way to results of T6-T11 at The Concession and TPC Scottsdale. He's made the cut in four of his last five PLAYERS Championship appearances, including a T2 during the 2017 edition.
Bargain Bin
Cameron Tringale - $25
Quietly ascending to 35th in the FedExCup standings with eight consecutive cuts made since the Houston Open in November, Tringale has been on the positive side of SG: T2G in every single event during this impressive span that includes a quartet of top-20s. Losing 2.9 strokes on his approaches at Bay Hill last week appears worrisome on the surface, but he actually gained 4.3 feet in proximity from 150-175 yards and 2.4 feet in proximity from 125-150 yards. Additionally, Tringale ranks 26th in birdie average and has made the cut in three straight trips to TPC Sawgrass.
Chris Kirk - $21
It's pretty wild to think Kirk was struggling in Korn Ferry Tour events this past August before the fall series, given he's top-40 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green and SG: T2G through 27 measured rounds this season. Thanks to top-25 results in half of his 10 starts dating back to the Corales Championship, he's already surpassed the $1M mark in official earnings for the first time since his 2017-18 campaign. Kirk has placed T16 or better in all but one of his five appearances since the turn of the calendar year, gaining an average of 3.8 strokes from tee to green over his last five tourneys. Assessing course history, Kirk will be making his 10th career voyage to the PLAYERS Championship with seven made cuts already under his belt.
Charley Hoffman - $20
The 44-year-old is trending in the right direction with a pair of top-10s in three starts since a T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but he also ranks third in SG: Approach over his last eight rounds after finishing fourth in this department at the API. Hoffman gained strokes from tee to green in all four rounds at Bay Hill last week as he tallied 15 total birdies, despite ranking just 64th in putts per GIR. He's nearing top-50 territory in the FedEx Cup standings while residing 25th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 40th in GIR percentage, fifth in total birdies and seventh in par-3 scoring this season.
