This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
The Honda Classic
Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
PGA National (Champion Course) - Par 70 - 7,125 yards
Field - 144 entrants
Purse - $8M
The Preview
The Honda Classic's schedule change from March to late February failed to address its field strength issues with the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship on the horizon, but PGA National is sure to provide entertainment this week in the form of a difficult par-70 layout that might look more like a waterpark if you're only following along on ShotLink.
Limiting big numbers is an actual task for even these pros with so much danger in play, while variance in PGA DFS contests directly increases with the considerable amount of penalty strokes expected. If you want to simply survive as a viewer, do not play a "Bear Trap" drinking game, as the difficult stretch of hole Nos. 15-17 will be a primary focus of the broadcast.
Recent Champions
2021 - Matt Jones
2020 - Sungjae Im
2019 - Keith Mitchell
2018 - Justin Thomas
2017 - Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 - Padraig Harrington
2014 - Russell Henley
2013 - Michael Thompson
2012 - Rory McIlroy
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 150-200 yards
SG: Off-the-Tee
Bogey avoidance
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Daniel Berger - $46
Berger might've matched Sungjae Im ($48) for the priciest salary on the board if the former's health wasn't in question, but the lower back injury that Berger dealt with a couple weeks ago should also help deflate his rostership exposure in this upper tier. In a tournament full of so much volatility as it is, adding Berger's injury risk to the equation isn't a huge deal, especially given the potentially contrarian nature of this play in GPP formats as everyone flocks to the aforementioned Im. Berger made it through two full rounds at the WM Phoenix Open, and his win equity against this type of field at The Honda Classic outweighs his WD equity in my opinion.
Louis Oosthuizen - $45
Another Florida resident lands in this section, as Oosthuizen makes the quick trip from his home in Ocala down to Palm Beach Gardens for just his second start of the 2022 calendar year. He gained strokes across the board en route to a top-15 result at TPC Scottsdale, propelling the South African to third in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in par-4 efficiency over his past 12 rounds.
Glue Guys
Jhonattan Vegas - $35
Vegas' prowess off the tee has been a major advantage at PGA National, allowing him to make the cut in eight of nine career appearances and notch top-30s in three straight outings here since 2019. Heading into this year's edition, he's first in driving distance and sixth in SG: OTT over his last 12 rounds, and he's also second in GIR percentage during this stretch.
Keith Mitchell - $30
A past champion in stellar form at just $30? Sounds like the perfect storm for inflated rostership, but this value is tough to pass up. Mitchell, who won The Honda Classic in 2019, has not lost strokes off the tee in any measured event since last June's Travelers Championship. Additionally, he's seventh in both Birdie or Better percentage and bogey avoidance throughout his last 12 rounds. Mitchell has placed T10-T12-MC-T7-T12 dating to the RSM Classic, so he's up to 29th in the FedExCup standings.
Gary Woodland - $29
Woodland is a perfect 8-for-8 in cuts made at The Honda Classic, adding a trio of top-10s here in 2011, 2017 and 2020. His finishing results have been poor since the start of November, however, which should keep the casual gamer away despite the fact that he's still fifth in driving distance and 15th in par-5 efficiency over his last 12 rounds.
Bargain Bin
Adam Svensson - $23
Svensson is not someone I'm going to miss out on when he pops and contends for the first time on Tour in the near future, as I firmly believe in the 28-year-old's overall talent and upside. Over his past 12 rounds, Svensson sits fourth in par-3 efficiency, fifth in proximity from 150 to 175 yards, seventh in SG: Approach and 10th in driving accuracy. From a season-long sample size, he's 24th in overall proximity.
David Lipsky - $22
Lipsky will go under the radar this week, especially after his missed cut at the Genesis Invitational, but he hits a lot of fairways in regulation and he was actually quite solid from 175 to 200 yards from the Houston Open through his top 15 at the American Express. Across his past 12 rounds, Lipsky is third in par-3 efficiency, 12th in GIR percentage, 14th in driving accuracy and 29th in par-4 scoring.
Russell Knox - $21
Many fellow Yahoo contestants will use Knox as a 'free square' at just $21, so expect to be eating chalk if you select the Scot in this spot. It's certainly difficult to fade Knox at such a discount, however, coming off three straight T33 finishes while ranking first in SG: Approach, first in GIR percentage, fifth in par-3 efficiency and ninth in proximity from 175-200 yards over his last 12 rounds.
