This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Farmers Insurance Open
La Jolla, California
Torrey Pines (South Course) - Par 72 - 7,765 yards
Torrey Pines (North Course) - Par 72 - 7,258 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $7.5M
The Preview
The first three events of the 2021 calendar year have dished out a generous average winning score of 23-under-par from the Sentry Tournament of Champions through the American Express, but a true test awaits this week on the grounds of Torrey Pines where the South Course is certainly demanding enough to host the U.S. Open this June. We'll also get a peek at the North Course as a Thursday/Friday split between venues allows all 156 entrants a chance to go lower on the shorter layout of the two. Chilly conditions with a decent chance of precipitation, especially throughout the morning tee times of Round 2, figure to place even more of an emphasis on driving distance and proximity with mid-long irons as the game's best ball-strikers tend to fare well here. Rain might help mitigate the difficulty of firm and fast poa annua greens on the South Course, but par-breaker rates will still be deflated compared to what we saw in Hawaii and La Quinta.
Recent Champions
2020 - Marc Leishman
2019 - Justin Rose
2018 - Jason Day
2017 - Jon Rahm
2016 - Brandt Snedeker
2015 - Jason Day
2014 - Scott Stallings
2013 - Tiger Woods
2012 - Mark Wilson
2011 - Jhonattan Vegas
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
SG: Off-the-Tee
P4: 450-500 and P5: 550-600 efficiency
SG: Putting (Poa)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Jon Rahm - $49
Rahm didn't sound too concerned after withdrawing from The American Express due to a minor tweak in the gym, so we'll let others fade the World No. 2 at Torrey Pines, where he's finished 2-T5-T29-Win dating back to 2017. The Spaniard has gained an average of 6.3 strokes from tee to green per event throughout his last 10 measured starts, placing no worse than a T23 since the PGA Championship while also adding six top-10s during this span. Rahm currently ranks second on Tour in total driving while also residing top-25 in SG: Off-the-Tee, driving distance and birdie or better percentage.
Rory McIlroy - $48
McIlroy failed to capitalize on a 54-hole lead during his 2021 debut overseas at the European Tour's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, posting a final-round 72 while champion Tyrrell Hatton and runner-up Jason Scrivener surged with matching 66s on Sunday. Nonetheless, McIlroy profiles as one of the betting favorites again this week, joining Rahm with single-digit odds to win. McIlroy's unmatched prowess off the tee is such an advantage at Torrey Pines, which helps explain his back-to-back top-5 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open since 2019.
Tony Finau - $43
Despite the continued evasion of a victory since his win at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, Finau's slide down the leaderboard Sunday at the American Express didn't carry quite as demoralizing of a sentiment as McIlroy's. Finau still managed to fire a four-under 68, and would've needed a final-round 63 to win over Si Woo Kim. The notion that Finau constantly "chokes" when in contention late is exaggerated, but he's definitely endured a handful of unlucky bounces while the lack of elite putting performances hinders his upside from a Round-4 scoring perspective. He can certainly still be a charm in daily fantasy formats, as made evident by his 6.75 birdies per round last week at PGA West. Finau's power has evolved him into somewhat of a horse for the course at Torrey Pines as well, racking up six consecutive top-25s here since his FIO debut in 2015.
Glue Guys
Adam Scott - $39
I considered including Ryan Palmer ($38) in this spot as a pivot from the more popular Scott/Day/Watson trio, but couldn't quite fork up that salary in this strong of a field on someone who hasn't found the winner's circle in over a decade. Palmer would've provided more expected value if he were nestled in at $35 alongside Gary Woodland and Rickie Fowler. Instead of Palmer, I'd rather target Scott as the most expensive option that is still capable of being paired with a Rahm-McIlroy combination, given it's entirely viable to fill the remaining three spots of a GPP lineup with considerations in the $20-$23 range. Scott, who finished runner-up in his maiden FIO appearance two seasons ago, ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee at the Sony Open while also finishing on the positive side of proximity from 175-plus yards. The Aussie's historical putting metrics favor poa surfaces, and he's gained an average of 2.4 strokes on approaches per event over his last 20 measured starts.
Gary Woodland - $35
Woodland made the cut in 10 straight attempts at the Farmers Insurance Open until he missed out on the weekend by two shots last year, but he now heads to Torrey Pines on the heels of a top-20 showing in La Quinta where he holed 21 total tweeters and ranked sixth in driving distance. Woodland disappointed from the beginning of August through the fall series, but picking up four strokes on the field from tee to green at PGA West was a major step in the right direction.
Marc Leishman - $31
Leishman's slump upon the PGA Tour's restart last June seemed exponentially more extreme than Woodland's, but the Aussie rebounded with a T13 at the Masters before his most recent T4 at the Sony Open. This is too much of a discount to ignore for the FIO's defending champion, who's tallied five career top-10s at the event. Leishman's iron play has been phenomenal in 2021, gaining 9.9 strokes on his approaches through eight measured rounds dating to the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Bargain Bin
Max Homa - $27
Homa proclaimed on his "Get a Grip" podcast this week that by the end of the season he'll be considered essentially one of the best pound-for-pound drivers of the golf ball. Diving into the validity of such an expectation, he's actually flashing sneaky power with 10.2 yards in distance gained per drive over his last five tournaments dating to the Bermuda Championship. He faltered from T1 to T21 by the end of Sunday's final round at the American Express while losing over 3.3 strokes with the flat stick, but his ball striking should not be of concern in the short term. The California native is most comfortable on poa and he finally figured out Torrey Pines last season, tying for ninth at nine-under-par.
Francesco Molinari - $23
Distressing travel from Europe is no longer an issue for Molinari along the West Coast swing since his family's move to California. The Italian posted a top-10 on his new home turf last week during a successful 2021 debut at the AmEx where he gained strokes in each SG subcategory, while compiling 21 total par-breakers to just five bogeys or worse in 72 holes. Molinari had the irons working in his favor at PGA West, gaining 4.2 feet in proximity per approach from 150-175 yards and 6.4 feet in proximity from 200-plus yards.
Cameron Davis - $21
Davis backdoored a top-3 result last week at the American Express by playing his final 36 holes in a collective 14-under-par, also marking his sixth made cut through seven events of his 2020-21 campaign. The Aussie picked up over five strokes on the field both on approaches and with the putter, ultimately providing top-tier DFS production with 22 birdies and two eagles. Davis has made the cut in all three of his first three trips to the Farmers Insurance Open, further improving his outlook as not only a GPP weapon, but also a cash-game candidate down here in the punt-play zone.
