This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach, California
Pebble Beach Golf Links - Par 72 - 7,051 yards
Spyglass Hill Golf Course - Par 72 - 7,041 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $7.8M
The Preview
Jordan Spieth's resurgence and a star-studded leaderboard among 5,000-fan galleries at the Waste Management Phoenix Open brought about all the intrigue you can ask for out of an early February stop on the PGA Tour in its competition with the Super Bowl. A trip to Pebble Beach sounds like a dream in the next chain of the season's sequencing, but many of the game's top players have elected to use this week as a rest period despite the elision of the Pro-Am format. There will be no representatives from the top-10 of the Official World Golf Ranking in attendance, while only five of the top-50 make their way to the majestic West Coast venue. Each entrant will play one of their first two rounds at Spyglass Hill before a 36-hole cut leaves Pebble Beach as the only layout used over the final two rounds. Pebble caters not to those who can pound the ball off the tee, but rather to those who can precisely navigate their way onto small and quick poa greens while dealing with potentially heavy gusts of cold air off the Pacific Ocean.
Recent Champions
2020 - Nick Taylor
2019 - Phil Mickelson
2018 - Ted Potter Jr.
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Vaughn Taylor
2015 - Brandt Snedeker
2014 - Jimmy Walker
2013 - Brandt Snedeker
2012 - Phil Mickelson
2011 - D.A. Points
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Proximity: 100-125 yards
SG: Putting (poa)
SG: Around-the-Green
Yahoo Value Picks - based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Patrick Cantlay - $47
Cantlay assumed the role of clearcut betting favorite upon Dustin Johnson's (rest) withdrawal from the tournament, but the former still isn't listed atop Yahoo's salary board as Daniel Berger earns those honors. Cantlay is coming off the final-round 61 that propelled him to a runner-up finish by one shot at the American Express, where he gained 8.5 strokes from tee to green. Through 23 measured rounds this season, Cantlay ranks fifth on Tour in SG: Around-the-Green, fifth in scrambling, seventh in birdie average and 11th in putting from 4-8 feet.
Jason Day - $45
Day's $45 salary is a large asking price on the heels of back-to-back missed cuts at the Farmers Insurance Open and Waste Management Phoenix Open, but this should help reduce his rostership at an event where the Aussie owns seven career top-10s and a perfect mark of 11/11 cuts made. Day also posted a top-25 at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble, recording three scores of 70 or better despite a tougher course setup. Day has lost a combined 6.5 strokes with the flat stick over his last four rounds, which is unlikely to continue on more favorable poa surfaces. Alternatively, he gained 2.5 strokes on his approaches last week at TPC Scottsdale and he's fifth among the AT&T field in proximity from 100-125 yards over his last 24 rounds.
Glue Guys
Kevin Streelman - $34
Streelman usually feasts on the pro-am portion of this event alongside teammate Larry Fitzgerald, but the future HOF wideout will have to cheer on Streelman from home as the latter seeks his sixth consecutive top-20 result at Pebble Beach. Streelman has more than just course history on his side, however, having gained 4.9 strokes on his approaches en route to a top-25 last week in the Valley of the Sun. Additionally, he's 14th in GIR percentage, 36th in rough proximity and 19th in proximity from 50-125 yards this season.
Henrik Norlander - $33
Norlander's recent run of brilliant play has led him to finishes of T22-T2-T12 dating to the American Express, allowing the Swede to join the top-100 of the OWGR for the first time in his career. Norlander has gained at least 1.2 strokes on his approach shots in straight measured starts since the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and he ranks fourth in proximity from 100-125 yards over his last 24 rounds. He's made the cut in three consecutive trips to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, highlighted by a T25 here just last year.
Francesco Molinari - $32
Molinari is a steal down here below the $33 average salary remaining price point, and although it's his debut in the AT&T-sponsored event, he posted a T16 effort at Pebble Beach during the 2019 U.S. Open and has since moved his permanent residence to California. Molinari began his 2021 calendar year with top-10s at both the American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open, so he's second in proximity from 175-200 yards, second in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in SG: Approach over his past eight rounds.
Bargain Bin
Matthew NeSmith - $26
It didn't take long for NeSmith to grasp the intricacies of Pebble Beach as he tied for 11th in his maiden Pro-Am appearance last year, but he's now coming off a T7 at the WMPO where he gained 4.5 strokes on his approach shots. NeSmith also excelled with the irons during his previous showing at the Farmers Insurance Open, so he's top-10 among the AT&T field in SG: Approach over his last eight rounds. Such quality ball-striking has led him to rank third on Tour in GIR percentage so far this season, though he's also top-50 in driving accuracy.
Kyle Stanley - $24
Underwhelming course history could keep the casual gamer away from Stanley this week, but $24 is exceptional value for someone who ranks third in SG: Approach and 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds. During this span, Stanley has placed T32-T18-T36 from the AmEx through the WMPO, despite losing strokes with the flat stick in all three tournaments. It'd be pretty difficult to putt any worse than Stanley just did at TPC Scottsdale, but he's gained an average of 5.93 strokes from tee to green per event throughout these last three starts.
