WGC-Mexico Championship Preview: Can Rory Finish?

The PGA Tour heads to Puerto Rico this week, but the best golfers in the world will battle it out in Mexico at the year's first WGC event. 

If you enjoyed the action at Riviera last week, then you're in for a treat as this event generally produces a bunch of big names on the leaderboard come Sunday. Last year, Dustin Johnson pulled away from Rory McIlroy, and the year prior it was Phil Mickelson grabbing the victory out the hands of Justin Thomas. 

We don't have a ton of course history, but we now have three years under our belt and there are some interesting trends developing with certain players. Most notable is Johnson, who has won this event twice in the last three years. But as we found out last week at Riviera, sometimes the obvious pick is not the best pick ... ahem, Bubba, but I digress. I should point out that I did have the foresight to use someone other than Bubba in the Survivor format last week. Some guys you just can't trust.    

This Week: WGC Mexico Championship – Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City

Last Year: Dustin Johnson shot a final-round 66 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Rory McIlroy.  

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (6-1)

The oddsmakers just won't give an inch on McIlroy, probably because the public will usually back him. The problem is McIlroy was in prime position to win Sunday — and he was the first to tap out Sunday. McIlroy might be the best player on the planet, but even a final-round lead is no assurance that he'll end up victorious. McIlroy has played well here, though, with a runner-up and T7 in his two starts on this track. Still, the odds are just way too short this week.                

Dustin Johnson (8-1)  

Now here are some odds that make perfect sense. Johnson has also had trouble closing lately, but he's put himself in the mix in his two most recent starts and returns to a course where's he had a lot of recent success. In addition to his two wins in three starts on this course, Johnson also posted a T7 in 2018.                  

Justin Thomas (10-1)

If not for an uncharacteristic missed cut last week at Riviera, Thomas' odds might be a little lower, but considering his current form, 10-1 seems about right. The reason why he's still among the favorites after a missed cut is his track record here. In three starts on this course, Thomas has finished no worse than solo ninth.                        

MID-TIER GOLFERS                        

Webb Simpson (20-1)

I'm certainly not fond of his track record on this course — nothing better than a T37 in two starts — but you certainly can't argue with his form. In four starts this season, Simpson has four top-10s, including three top-3s. While I generally like to see at least some history of good play on a particular course, when you're as hot as Simpson, sometimes course history doesn't matter.

 Paul Casey (40-1)

Casey hasn't quite rounded into form yet as he's been unable to close at all recently, but his play in the first three rounds the last couple weeks leads me to believe he has enough to contend this week. He also has a decent track record at this event with a T3 last year and two top-20s in his prior two starts.                    

Sergio Garcia (40-1)

Garcia's odds should probably be a bit higher, but 40-1 still holds a lot of value. He's not in great form, but he was fairly steady from beginning to end. The reason he's on this list this week is his track record here. Garcia finished T6 last year at this event, T7 in 2018 and T12 in 2017.                  

LONGSHOTS

Bubba Watson (50-1)  

Proof that I don't hold a grudge. Watson let everyone down last week at Riviera, but he's never been very predictable, and I can see him bouncing back in this spot. Watson hasn't quite taken to the current track like he did the previous one at this event, but he posted a top-10 in 2018. We can't be sure he likes this course, but he's played well enough to lead me to believe that he doesn't dislike the course.      

Cameron Smith (100-1)  

Interesting odds on Smith this week as he's already won on the PGA Tour this season and his only start here resulted in a T6 in 2019. Perhaps the odds reflect his recent play, which has been, well, it's been terrible, but he did post a T60 in the start prior to his win at Sony Open earlier this year. Hey, he's 100-1, there has to be a downside.                  

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Dustin Johnson - Johnson is always popular this time of year. For those who haven't used him yet, this is probably the best place to deploy him. He hasn't shown the high upside we've seen early in the season the last few years, but as mentioned, he's close and has a fondness for this course.                      

Moderately Owned Pick: Paul Casey - The OAD picks are going to be all over the place this week outside of Johnson, which means I'm taking a stab at who might be moderately owned. Casey's track record here should grab some attention, and although he's faded late the last two weeks, he's probably caught some eyes early in the week.                

Lightly Owned Pick: Cameron Smith - If you are staying away from DJ this week, there aren't many great options at the top, which means you are probably looking for a longshot. Enter Smith, who has the talent to beat a field like this and has been in winner's circle already this season.

Buyer Beware: Adam Scott - Scott is in great form entering this week, but there are actually a lot of things working against him. For one, he won last week, which is rarely a good sign for the following week. Another thing working against Scott this week is his track record here, which is limited. His only start on this course resulted in a T45 in 2017.                          

Last Week: Bubba Watson (MC) $0; Season - $2,115,125  

This Week: Dustin Johnson - It's just too hard to get away from Johnson this week. I may have said the same thing about Bubba last week, but the difference is, last week there were other options that looked intriguing — that isn't the case this week. The only other golfers I would consider are McIlroy and Thomas, and I don't want to use either this early in the season.                       

FANDUEL PICKS  

High/Mid/Low: Dustin Johnson ($12,000)/Paul Casey ($10,700)/Cameron Smith ($8,700)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: J.B. Holmes (T51); Streak - 6

This week: no cut