WGC-HSBC Champions Preview: Rory's the Favorite

The PGA Tour heads to China this week as the Asian-swing concludes, and what a swing it has been. The first event was captured by what many consider the second-best player on the planet, Justin Thomas and the most recent event was won by what many consider the greatest of all time, Tiger Woods. The only way to cap this off is a win by Rory, right? 

He certainly has a chance. After all, he's the odds-on favorite, and although this is a WGC event, the field is not nearly as deep as it normally is for these events. That means it should be easier to win ... in theory. There is plenty of firepower at the top, but many of the top players are missing, such as Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Tiger. We have a limited field again this week, which means we are likely to see another big name hoist the trophy. We also have plenty of course history to use, as Sheshan International has been the venue for this event since 2006.        

This Week: WGC-HSBC Champions – Sheshan International Golf Club, Shanghai, China  

Last Year: Xander Schauffele shot a final-round 68 on his way to a playoff victory over Tony Finau. 

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (6-1)

The biggest names are winning on the Asian swing and perhaps McIlroy feels the need to get in on this. Regardless, he is rightly the favorite this week. McIlroy laid an egg in his most recent outing at this event, but prior to his T54 last year, McIlroy had posted five top-11 finishes, three of which were top 6 or better. He definitely has a feel for this course, and we can safely write off his performance last year as a fluke.        

Hideki Matsuyama (12-1)  

I doubted Matsuyama's ability to perform under the immense pressure of the entire country last week in Japan and he proved me to be a fool as he battled Tiger all the way to the end. It was an  impressive performance from Matsuyama and it shows that not only can he handle the pressure, but that his game is in really good shape. His results here have been all over the place, more often out of contention than in contention, but he won this event in 2016, which means the ceiling goes as high as anyone in the field this week.            

Xander Schauffele (14-1)

The secret is out. Everyone is aware that Schauffele is planted firmly in the second tier on the PGA Tour now, right below the elite players. It's also known that he's performed well at the WGC events. So how does he perform when he's no longer the underdog? He's come a long way in just a couple years, going from an unknown who won the Tour Championship to being among the favorites at a WGC event. I have no doubt that Schauffele will continue to improve, and we should see a strong effort this week as he defends his title.                    

MID-TIER GOLFERS                      

Justin Rose (16-1)

This will be Rose's first start on the PGA Tour this season, but if his track record is any indication on his performance this week, it shouldn't matter. Rose won this event in 2017 and finished third last year. Both of those results came in his first start on the PGA Tour that year as well. In other words, no need to worry about rust, he's got his routine figured out by now.                

Paul Casey (20-1)

Casey has played this event seven times and has never missed the cut! OK, this event doesn't have a cut, but if it did, he's still be a perfect 7-for-7. Casey has finished in the top 25 in each of his seven starts at this event, which would normally put him among the favorites, but the problem is he rarely finishes in the top 10. Casey has just two top-10s here in seven tries, which means he'll likely play well this week, but not well enough to win ... unless it all comes together? Hey, all you can do is put yourself in the mix and see what happens. More often than not, Casey puts himself in the mix at this event.              

Tony Finau (25-1)

Look across the landscape this week and you won't find many players with impeccable track records at this event. Perhaps it has something to do with the strength of the field or maybe the placement on the calendar, but for whatever reason, there are only a couple guys with nearly flawless results here. Finau is one of those guys, though he's only played here twice. Finau finished T11 in his first start here two years back and lost in a playoff to Schauffele in his second start at this event.            

LONGSHOTS

Sungjae Im (30-1)  

This will be Im's first start at this event and as we all know by now, it just doesn't matter with this guy as he's proved many times already that familiarity does not determine his results. Im posted a top-3 finish last week at the ZoZo Championship (first start there), and his game appears to be in top form. Im played 35 events last season and is well on his way to that number again this year as this will be his sixth start already this season. But don't you worry about fatigue, this guy is a bulldog, nothing slows him down. Look for another strong showing from Im this week.  

Erik van Rooyen (80-1)  

If you don't know about van Rooyen yet, you'll likely become more familiar with him this season. van Rooyen is from South Africa, but he played college golf in the States, at the University of Minnesota. He doesn't play full time on the PGA Tour, however, which makes him a bit of a mystery to many in the U.S., but if he continues to improve his game, he'll be well known in no time. Van Rooyen has plenty of experience in big spots and won't be intimidated by this field. He held his own during the majors and WGC events last season and I'm expect him to be even better this season.              

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - As mentioned, the cat is out of the bag, Schauffele has gone from an unknown player, to a guy with potential, to someone who everyone targets for these events. Being the defended champ doesn't help him remain obscure either. He'll be a popular pick this week, and really the only argument against him is that you want to save him for 2020.

Moderately owned pick: Hideki Matsuyama- Part of the reason I held off on Matsuyama last week was that he had a ton of value at the Waste Management Open, but if he's on top of his game, and it appears he is, then maybe this is the time to pull the trigger. Matsuyama is bound to play more freely this week as the pressure of playing in Japan is now behind him. Whether that helps or hurts his game is the only question.          

Lightly Owned Pick: Erik van Rooyen - Van Rooyen is a great guy for major pools, but he's not at the point in his career where you'd actually use him in a OAD format during a major. There aren't many spots to use him throughout the season, and considering many of the top players are absent this week, this might be one of the better spots for him. Again, no cut means no risk when it comes to guys like this who have limited value down the road.                          

Buyer Beware: Jordan Spieth - Not going to lie, I was buying the notion that Spieth had turned a corner with his T8 at Nine Bridges, but he parlayed that strong showing into a T66 at the ZoZo Championship last week. That's not to say that he's headed the wrong way now, it's just that this comeback isn't going to happen all at once. It will be a process and maybe he bounces back this week, maybe he doesn't, but until he shows some consistency, he can't be considered in a OAD format.                      

Last Week: Danny Lee - (T10) $243,750; Season - $572,659  

This Week: Erik van Rooyen - I went with Danny Lee last week and it paid off as he posted a top-10 and cashed more than $240k. Not bad for a guy who is hit or miss on making the cut on a weekly basis. I'm staying with the strategy of avoided big names this fall and once again hoping that my underdog can post a good number. Van Rooyen has the experience, and I think he's on the brink of big things, which hopefully equates to a top-10 or better this week.                                                    

FANDUEL PICKS 

High/Mid/Low: Xander Schauffele ($11,300)/Sungjae Im ($10,500)/Erik van Rooyen ($8,700)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: no cut; Streak - 1

This week: no cut