Weekly Preview: ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

The ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Accordia Golf Narashino CC
Chiba, Japan

The PGA Tour returns to Japan for this week's ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

Due to COVID-19 restrictions, this event was played in the United States this past year, but the pros head back to the tournament's intended home in Japan this time around. As expected, not everyone is making the trek across the globe to Japan, but there are certainly a handful of big names in the field. This is more of a classic fall event field in that there are a couple big guns at the top, a few second-tier guys, then a bunch of players looking to either make a name for themselves or get a head start on securing a spot inside the top 125. 

We do have one year of course history working for us, but that's not going to help that much. We'll have to lean on recent play and maybe on the gut again, like we did this past week with Rickie Fowler, who was the 54-hole leader at the CJ Cup. Fowler is in the field this week, but he has more eyes on him now. It will be interesting to see if he's able to carry over any momentum from last week's showing.

LAST YEAR

Patrick Cantlay shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas.

FAVORITES

Xander Schauffele (6-1)

Things get interesting right off the bat. I often say that you should always take a guy when he has his best chance to win. Judging by the odds, it's safe to say that Schauffele will not have a better chance to win at any point in 2022, right? 6-1 is thin for anyone, let alone Schauffele, who's good, but it's not like he's a lock at a major. The only problem here is that it's the fall and nothing is guaranteed in the fall. Schauffele may have a decent chance to win this week, but at this number, there's no value.

Collin Morikawa (7-1)

I wonder if golfers look at the odds like pros in other sports do. If Morikawa sees the odds, he might be a little confused as to how Schauffele is favored over him. Morikawa is the more accomplished of the two and quite frankly, the better golfer when at each is at their best. Regardless though, Morikawa also has a good chance to win against this field, but these odds are just too light.

Hideki Matsuyama (14-1)

Now to some odds that make more sense. Matsuyama is the third favorite, which when looking at the field, makes perfect sense. He will have as much motivation to win this week as anyone in the field because he's on his home turf. Well, he's playing in his home country, anyway. Matsuyama played this event in 2019 and finished in solo second. It will be interesting to see how he responds in front of his home country now that he's a major champion.

THE NEXT TIER

Will Zalatoris (20-1)

Is this guy ever going to win? It's been over a year and this kid has yet to win on the PGA Tour. Seriously though, when is he going to win? Zalatoris is taking a line very similar to Viktor Hovland, who also came onto the PGA Tour with a bunch of expectations and played very well for quite a while but failed to find a win until about eight months into his PGA Tour career. It's amazing the expectations put on some guys. Hovland seemed like a disappointment at the time, and he wasn't even a full year into his career. Zalatoris will get his win this year and this looks like a good spot as he's posted top-15s in two of three starts already this season.

Rickie Fowler (25-1)

I'm not entirely comfortable with this pick for two reasons. One, like I mentioned earlier, he has eyes on him now after this past week. He had no expectations last week and now people might expect something. Two, he's already down to 25-1! He was 125-1 last week! Sure, it was a much better field last week, but come on. Look, Fowler has as much talent as just about anyone out here, it's just a matter of getting right in the head. Last week it appeared as though he had some things figured out now. If that's the case, this is a spot where he could win.

Cameron Tringale (35-1)

Tringale will tee it up for the fifth time already this fall, looking to make yet another cut and perhaps finish in the top-20 again. He hasn't played all that well in the past two weeks, but he did post a couple nice finishes to start the fall season. Though he finished T59 at the CJ Cup this past week, he did improve every round throughout the week, perhaps that's some momentum he can carry into this week.

LONG SHOTS

Mackenzie Hughes (60-1)

Consider this the Fowler spot from this past week. Hughes posted career best numbers two seasons ago but came back down to Earth this past season. Now it's time to get back to where he was two years ago. He's off to a decent start, with his best showing a T25 this past week at the CJ Cup against a tough field. Most notably, he posted a second-round 62, so perhaps his game is coming around.

Doug Ghim (80-1)

This is another gut pick, as Ghim hasn't done much this fall, but we know he's got the game to succeed out here. Ghim started the season well this past year, but he faded a bit as the year wore on. Now with a full season under his belt, he should be able to manage the highs and lows of being a PGA Tour pro and hopefully the results will be more consistent. I do think that Ghim will win at some point this season.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Hideki Matsuyama - What's not to like? He's playing in front of his home country, so motivation is not in question, he already proved he can handle that pressure when he almost won here two years ago and now, he has the added confidence of a major winner. He's got everything going for him. The only question is do you want to use him now or in 2022, because there will be some great spots for him on next year's schedule.

Moderately-owned Pick: Rickie Fowler - As mentioned earlier, Fowler is no longer under the radar, and that means that OAD players will be taking a hard look at him this week. Fowler is on his way back, which means if he's truly going to make it back to where he was earlier in his career, he'll have a lot of value in 2022, so do you make a move now, or wait until he's back on top of his game?

Lightly-owned Pick: Mackenzie Hughes - I'll be honest, this isn't a great week for sleepers. I think Hughes can play well here, but I'm not expecting him to, just hoping. With that said, if you are fading the big names until 2022, Hughes could be a good fit this week.

Buyer Beware: Alex Noren - Not a big name, I know, but he's currently in the top-10 odds-wise and I'm wondering why. Perhaps it's because he finished in the top-20 here last year? On a different course? Anyhow, his form isn't great either as he posted a T59 this past week at the CJ Cup.

Last Week: Sam Burns - T5 - $342,469

Season Total: $371,819

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - I have to admit, part of this pick comes from Matsuyama's inability to dominate the Phoenix Open. For years he was a lock out there, but that's not the case anymore. Without a surefire place to use him in 2022, I'll take my chances here.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Hideki Matsuyama $11,900
Middle Range: Cameron Tringale $10,800
Lower Range: Doug Ghim $8,800

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Sam Burns - T5

Streak: 1

This Week: Hideki Matsuyama - I guess there's a scenario where Matsuyama gets in his head and crumbles in front of the home crowd, but after having gone through this already two years ago, I can't imagine he'd struggle in this scenario now. Matsuyama will certainly have value in this format in 2022, but again, with the no-cut events, you don't need as many players in this format, which allows you to use big names early in the season if needed.