Weekly Preview: Wyndham Championship

Wyndham Championship

Sedgefield Country Club
Greensboro, NC

The PGA Tour heads to North Carolina for the final event of the regular season -- the Wyndham Championship.

Before we move forward, we should take a quick look back at what Tony Finau did this past week. If it was just about anyone else, I'm not sure I would make mention of it here, but Finau is a bit of a special case, as he won early in his career then suffered through a long winless drought. That ended this past season, and it was expected that Finau -- free from the burden of chasing down win No. 2 -- would take his game to new heights. Through April of this year, though, he had accomplished next to nothing. Fast forward three months and his entire outlook has changed. His win two weeks ago was nice, but it was the 3M Open, against a weak field. While his win this past week also came against a pretty soft group of players, the fact he went back-to-back can't be ignored. Finau is showing a new level to his game, and if he continues on this trajectory, next year could be really special. 

Now, onto this week. In a nutshell, we are again missing almost all of the elite players. Still, this field is deeper than what we saw the past couple weeks. Oh, and there is plenty of course history available!
                              
All odds via golfodds.com as of 9:00 AM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Kevin Kisner shot a final-round 66 on his way to a playoff victory over Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Na, Branden Grace and Roger Sloan.

FAVORITES

Sungjae Im (14-1)

There is not one golfer with a single digit on the left side of his odds this week, which makes perfect sense because no one player who should be heavily favored to win. Im grabs the top spot because of a solid track record here -- two top-10s in three starts -- and his runner-up in his most recent start at the 3M Open. It should be noted, though, that he missed two cuts and finished T81 in his three starts prior to that event. Im looks like a decent play, but there's not much value at this price.

Shane Lowry (16-1)

Lowry is an interesting choice as the second favorite, because while he has played well here before, he doesn't exactly have a great track record at Sedgefield. This is all about his play this season -- he ranks 28th in the FedExCup Standings -- and his increasing popularity among bettors. Lowry, while not the biggest name in golf, gets plenty of respect from both fans and wagerers alike. This, however, doesn't feel like a "Lowry" spot for me. It feels like a tune-up for the playoffs. As such, I'll pass on the rather meager odds.

Will Zalatoris (18-1)

When exactly is Zalatoris going to break through and get his first win? Every week looks like it could be the one, but from my experience going through this with other golfers, it's likely to happen when we don't expect it. His odds this past week were a bit shorter, so you can see the oddsmakers and the public are starting to cool on Zalatoris just a bit. This would certainly qualify as an instance in which no one is really expecting a win. I'm just saying.

THE NEXT TIER

Russell Henley (22-1)

Henley is in the midst of a pretty good season, entering this week 42nd in the standings. Most of his points were generated from a runner-up at the Sony Open way back in January, but he has posted a bunch of top-25s since then and picked up a top-10 in Detroit. Henley has a decent track record here, with top-10s in his two most recent starts at Sedgefield.

Webb Simpson (25-1)

Simpson's track record here is nearly as good as anyone's anywhere, but his odds tell you a lot about the current state of his game. Here's the thing, though -- he's not that far off. The results haven't been there, but he recorded some good rounds over the past couple months and simply hasn't been able to close. That's never really been the issue for Simpson, so I doubt this trend lasts much longer. He'll have to get it all figured out this week, which is a lot to ask. But if there's a course on which he could do that, this is the one.

Adam Scott (35-1)

It hasn't been a great year by Scott's standards, but he has been near the top of the leaderboard more often in recent weeks, and that could be a sign he's peaking just in time for the playoffs. Scott posted top-15s at the U.S. Open and Open Championship and was on his way to something much better this past week before a Saturday 78 derailed his hopes. What gives me hope this week were the three rounds surrounding that, over which he shot 16-under par.

LONG SHOTS

J.T. Poston (50-1)

We're going to find out really soon whether Poston's run a few weeks ago was just a hot streak or the start of something else. He posted a T2 at the Travelers and followed that up with a win at the John Deere Classic. He missed the cut at the Open Championship, but who can blame him? What might be more impressive was his T11 at the 3M Open two weeks ago. Poston is not accustomed to this amount of success, and he could easily pack it in and coast to the TOUR Championship. However, he appears determined to build upon his success. Oh, did I mention he won this event in 2019?

Cameron Champ (80-1)

Champ enters this week at 141st in the standings, so he needs to get something done if he wants to extend his season. If the past two weeks are any indication, he might be poised to do just that. Champ has not had a good campaign, but he did post two top-20s in his two most recent starts.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sungjae Im - It's funny how one week can turn a guy from an afterthought to the most popular play, but I think that's what we are looking at this week in Im. He was not playing well entering the 3M Open, but he found his game that week and all signs point to another good showing.

Moderately-owned Pick: Webb Simpson - It's crazy to think that Simpson wouldn't be the most popular play, but his results just haven't been there of late. Still, if you've got him at your disposal, this isn't the time to cut bait. I'll be putting my money where my mouth is momentarily.

Lightly-owned Pick: J.T. Poston - If my pick wasn't locked in I'd strongly consider Poston. I like how he continued to play well even after picking up a win, and he could be entering a new tier right before our eyes. With a number of good options to consider here, though, I can't imagine many OAD players will be on Poston.

Buyer Beware: Kevin Kisner - It's very risky fading a guy who has had a lot of success at a certain spot, but Kisner also had a great track record in Detroit and he missed the cut. Kisner could easily turn it around, but I can't get over how poorly he played this past week.

Last Week: Kevin Kisner - MC - $0

Season Total: $10,536,640

This Week: Webb Simpson - I waited all season to make this play, and although I wish he was playing better, I have to stick with it. His form could end up being a blessing, though, as it might scare some others off him. I have faith that this track will bring out the best in Simpson. Others I considered were Si Woo Kim, Poston, and Billy Horschel.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Sungjae Im ($11,300)
Middle Range: Si Woo Kim ($10,300)
Lower Range: Stephan Jaeger ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Kevin Kisner - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Webb Simpson - If he can make the cut in Detroit while not being at his best, he can certainly do the same here. I realize this is a fade opportunity, as Simpson is bound to be very popular in this format. However, I'm sticking with my assumption that we are going to see Simpson's best effort of the season at Sedgefield.