Weekly Preview: WGC-Workday Championship

WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession

The Concession Golf Club
Bradenton, FL

The PGA Tour heads across the country as the best golfers in the world say goodbye to the West Coast and hello to Florida. The next three events on the PGA Tour will be played in the Sunshine State, so get used to Bermuda greens. 

This wasn't supposed to be the start of the Florida Swing, but the PGA Tour decided to keep the players in the United States after it failed to get approval from the Mexican government to play the event in Mexico. This isn't the first time this event has been held in the United States -- or even Florida, for that matter -- as Doral hosted this event for nearly a decade before it moved south of the border. The result of this particular change is that we have no course history this week, which is never fun when trying to figure out who will succeed At least we have plenty of information on current form, as most were in the field this past week at the Genesis Invitational. 

Speaking of last week's event, it was quite the finish, with Max Homa denying Tony Finau his first full-field win on Tour. While there was plenty of excitement, the weather delays -- coupled with most of the elite players whiffing this past week -- made for a less-than-desirable outcome. Perhaps that's just me lamenting taking DJ in my one-and-done league. Yeah, that's it.

LAST YEAR

Patrick Reed shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Bryson DeChambeau.

FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson (6-1)

DJ is the clear favorite once again, but his odds are slightly more reasonable this week. Well, it's debatable if 6-1 to win a golf tournament is ever "reasonable," but he still had a respectable finish last week and was on fire before that, so having DJ atop the odds chart seems like the right move. Course history was on DJ's side this past week, but it was also on others' sides. That's not the case this week, as everyone comes in on a relatively-level playing field. That should add to DJ's advantage, as he's still the best golfer going right now.

Jon Rahm (10-1)

With no course history, we are getting a predictable set of names atop the list. Rahm, who had the second-best odds last week, checks in at the same spot. Rahm was the only one among the favorites at the Genesis event to finish top-5, but he was never a threat to win. Rahm's 2021 is off to a good start, with three top-10s in four starts, but he hasn't really left a mark. More specifically, we haven't seen a lot of him on the weekend, because although he's finished well, he hasn't started well. He'll need to play well all four days to beat out all the talent in this field.

Rory McIlroy (14-1)

Perhaps a single "?" will suffice from now on when McIlroy is listed among the top-3 favorites for a given event. Again, it's not that he's playing poorly, but the wins just haven't come with much regularity over the past couple years. Alas, the odds aren't there to predict who will win; rather, they are there to drive action and the oddsmakers know that people will bet on Rory, even if he's not in top form, so he's again among the favorites. With all that said, I do expect McIlroy to bounce back after a poor showing in LA, but at this price I wouldn't place a wager on him to win.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

Cantlay is quickly becoming one of the more reliable golfers Tour, as he just keeps producing on a weekly basis. Cantlay picked up a win this past October, and in four starts this year, he's finished no worse than T15. What Cantlay needs to go to the next level though is a win in an event like this. He's got the tools and the mindset, and it should only be a matter of time before he snags a WGC title.

Tony Finau (20-1)

Finau on a win ticket? I know, it sounds outrageous, but I like the way he looked this past week, and I think a near-miss in a loaded field is going to help his cause going forward. My only concern is that the setup last week was perfect for him, and that won't necessarily be the case this time around. He was under the radar all week and snuck up on the leaders, essentially skirting the pressure the entire way. And yet, he was unable to win. With that said, he's just too talented for his drought to continue much longer.

Daniel Berger (28-1)

I had Berger in this spot last week at 35-1, but he withdrew Monday night. I wondered aloud why he would be 35-1 a week after impressing at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and wouldn't you know it, he's all the way up to 28-1 this week. Berger is in the same category as Cantlay, and just like Cantlay, Berger needs a win that will pop on his resume. This would be one of those.

LONG SHOTS

Collin Morikawa (35-1)

After winning his first major last August, it wasn't that much of a surprise to see Morikawa struggle to close out the year. After all, it's a pretty big deal to win a major so early in your career, so who could blame him if he lost a bit of his edge. He was seemingly back on track after a pair of T7s this past month, but he slipped a bit at Riviera. I'm going to give him a pass on that one, though, as the conditions were really tough and it was difficult to find a rhythm with the delays. Morikawa has beaten all these guys before, and he can do it again.

Harris English (55-1)

I've written a lot about "taking the next step" this week, as there are several players in the field that could make a big move up the ladder with a win. English falls right into that category. He missed his past two cuts, but those came after a drought-breaking victory at the Tournament of Champions, so you can excuse the lapse. It's not often you go seven years between wins. Anyhow, he's had time to digest that win, and it's back to business. Look for English to play better this week and perhaps contend for the title.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - DJ was not a popular play this past week, and if OAD players passed on him knowing his track record there, I can't imagine many will be on him this week. With that said, Rahm's top-5 finish should garner enough attention to make him one of the top plays this week. Rahm hasn't showed his best yet this year, but he looks to be close. I can't argue with this pick.

Moderately-owned Pick: Tony Finau - Finau drew a lot of attention with his play down the stretch this past week, and he's bound to be the pick on a lot of teams this week because of it. Throw in the lack of course history for most of the players in the field, and the result is people scrambling for the hot hand. Enter Finau, who isn't a guy you worry about burning too early. You might as well strike while the iron is hot.

Lightly-owned Pick: Cameron Smith - It seems like Smith is the type that will perpetually be under the radar, no matter how well he's playing. So whenever you use him, you'll likely have a chance to make a big move if he plays well. Smith is coming off a T4 at the Genesis, and he's also coming in off his best showing at a major, a T2 at the Masters this past November. Perhaps he's also ready to make the leap.

Buyer Beware: Justin Thomas - There's no debating that Thomas is off right now. Whether it has to do with the incident in Hawaii or not is debatable, but it doesn't really matter; he's not playing well and should be avoided in the OAD format. Thomas is too good to let this linger for much longer, and I'm sure he will get back on track sometime soon. However, it likely won't be this week.

Last Week: Dustin Johnson - T8 - $262,725

Season Total: $2,055,592

This Week: Xander Schauffele - It's rare that my OAD pick doesn't appear in this article until now, but with Schauffele being just outside the top-3 on the odds chart and not far enough down to provide much value, I had no place to put him but here. This wasn't an easy pick, as with no course history, it's tough to feel really good about anyone. I had it narrowed down to Schauffele and Rahm and ultimately landed on Schauffele, because I think Rahm's ownership will be higher. I could see using both in a major championship, but wouldn't necessarily hold either for one, which is what I'm doing with Brooks Koepka. Schauffele has proven very reliable over the past couple seasons, and with such a big purse this week, I want to make sure I get a large cut.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($11,900)
Middle Range: Daniel Berger ($10,600)
Lower Range: Harris English ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Adam Scott - T38

Streak: 1

This Week: N/A