Weekly Preview: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Austin Country Club
Austin, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Texas for the final installment of the WGC Match Play event.

I, for one, will be sad to see this event go away, not because it made for a fun weekend -- often it was the exact opposite -- but because no event outside of the majors was more entertaining over the first couple rounds than this event. Well, it used to be that way before they switched to the current format, which really waters down the first two days. With that change, we lost the sudden death aspect that made it so entertaining. Instead, we were left to do math come Friday afternoon. No one wants to do math at 3:00 on a Friday. The current format is still entertaining, but it's just not the same, and while the goal of getting the elite players to the weekend seemed to work, it wasn't worth the price of making the first three days less entertaining. The current format was driven not only by the networks hoping to get bigger names on the weekend, but the players as well had their say and they decided that they'd rather not fly in to play just one round if things didn't go right. They still got paid, though, so I guess I really don't understand the issue.

Anyhow, it's all coming to an end, so there's no need to argue over the format any longer. What we have on hand is the most difficult event to predict on the schedule, which means if you're placing a win ticket, you should be getting good odds, and when selecting your OAD player you should probably avoid anyone in the elite tier.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Scottie Scheffler defeated Kevin Kisner 4&3 in the final match.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (8-1)

This might not be a popular opinion, but odds this low for anyone in this event is ridiculous. Scheffler is the hottest player on the planet, but match play brings so many variables into play that anything less than 12-1 is a hard pass. Scheffler could have one bad day and lose, or he could have a few average days and run into a buzzsaw. Heck, he could run into that buzzsaw in round one and not even make it to the weekend. With that said, he's got a pretty nice draw, as the highest rated player other than Scheffler is Tom Kim, who has really struggled in 2023.

Jon Rahm (10-1)

Again, Rahm doesn't meet the 12-1 criteria, so this is a no-go for me. Outside of that, he hasn't been himself for a few weeks, which is another reason to avoid placing a win bet on him this week. Rahm's record here is pretty solid, but his group could be trouble, with former champ Billy Horschel, a guy who can get hot in Keith Mitchell and a suddenly resurgent Rickie Fowler.

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

McIlroy is right at the cut-off, so he's in play. However, he hasn't played well here since 2016 and his group looks like trouble. McIlroy isn't quite at the top of his game, so I don't expect him to make a deep run. Keegan Bradley is going to be a thorn in his side, and if he catches Denny McCarthy on the wrong day he could easily lose. Scott Stallings isn't striking fear in anyone at the moment, so it should come down to the top three in this group.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (16-1)

Cantlay has a peculiar track record here, failing to make it out of the group stage in all four starts but getting close to advancing each time. That at least shows he knows how to get around the course, and you can't come close to advancing without winning a match or two each time. The other reason I like Cantlay is his group, which in my eyes is the weakest. Brian Harman has a good track record here, but his form is off, and both K.H. Lee and Nick Taylor will be playing this event for the first time.

Tyrrell Hatton (22-1)

You wouldn't think that Hatton has the right temperament for match play, but he's managed to play well here more often than not. Hatton has failed to make it out of the group stage just once in five starts, and three of those starts resulted in top-10s. His group looks more than manageable, as I can't even identify which of the other three players is the biggest threat.

Matt Fitzpatrick (34-1)

Just this past week I had Fitzpatrick listed as a player to avoid, and I was spot on, as he missed the cut. Why am I back on board? Well, this format might be exactly what he needs to get back on track. Fitzpatrick has made it out of the group stage in half of his six starts and has Ryder Cup experience, so he's very accustomed to this type of event, something the others in his group can't say. The three other guys in his group -- Sahith Theegala, Min Woo Lee and J.J. Spaun -- all run very hot and cold, so Fitzpatrick might not have to work too hard to get out of this group.

LONG SHOTS

Sam Burns (42-1)

Burns has not played up to his standards this season, but he started to find his groove this past week and might be ready to make a run. Surprisingly, this will be Burns' first start in this event, so we have no idea how he'll take to this course. Still, if his form is truly back, then I'm sure he can navigate this track. His group has some hurdles, but I think he can handle what they throw at him.

Corey Conners (42-1)

If I'm looking for a long shot, I want to look at the weakest quadrant, and in my estimation it's the upper right one as you look at the bracket. This quad includes Rahm, but the other top seeds aren't that intimidating. With that in mind, I'm looking at Conners, who finished third in this event this past year and could do something special this year, especially if Rahm doesn't advance. Conners was listed at 60-1 at one point, so hopefully you hopped on board early.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Scottie Scheffler - I'll start by saying that I'm not going with Scheffler and that's only because the nature of this event. I do want to get him while he's running hot, but he did that exact same thing this past year and managed to remain on a roll through the Masters, so hopefully he can do the same this year. I'm not going to talk anyone out of this pick, though, as Scheffler is in top form, and when he's on he might be the best in the world.

Moderately-owned Pick: Patrick Cantlay - I'm guessing that many OAD players will be avoiding the "big three," and in that case they will be looking for someone who has a good chance of getting out of his group. Enter Cantlay, who probably just needs to bring his average game to advance. The lower left quadrant is a bit problematic, but you never know who is going to make it out of the other groups.

Lightly-owned Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick - As mentioned earlier, Fitzpatrick's form is going to place him under the radar, and there's certainly some risk in play here, as he hasn't been himself this year. But then again, everyone gets a check for showing up, so how much risk is there? The best reason to fade Fitzpatrick is his potential at a major later in the year, assuming he regains his form.

Buyer Beware: Kevin Kisner - I know, he's a match play bulldog, but I think that comes to an end this week. Kisner has a great track record here, and he will undoubtedly be excited to get back, but I'm afraid his game is too far gone at the moment to make another run. Besides, when everyone is aware of the narrative -- Kisner fares well in match play -- it's best to look elsewhere.

This Week: Tyrrell Hatton - This pick came down to Cantlay and Hatton, with Hatton winning out by a narrow margin. We don't know who else will advance around them, but both players have relatively weak groups. Ultimately this came down to form and track record, both of which favor Hatton.

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