Weekly Preview: The Northern Trust

The Northern Trust

Liberty National G.C.
Jersey City, New Jersey

The PGA Tour heads to New Jersey for the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs.

Like last season, just three tournaments comprise the postseason, so only the top 70 golfers in the standings after this week's event will advance to the upcoming BMW Championship. Before that, though, we have The Northern Trust, which has been on the schedule for many years but has been played at this course only three times -- once over a decade ago. As such, there won't be much course history to lean on. 

We've just wrapped up a bit of a disjointed part of the schedule, as the Olympics and the host of non-marquee events that have been played lately leave us wondering where a lot of the elite golfers are at at the moment. Well, we know they're in New Jersey, but mentally, where do they stand? We'll find out rather quickly, and once we see who comes out of the gates firing, we'll know who looks ready to make a run over the next few weeks. The pot of gold at the end of this rainbow is substantial, so expect plenty of motivation from everyone, as golfers all over the board will either be looking to boost their chances of landing one of the 30 spots in the TOUR Championship or trying to head into that event as they can in the standings.

LAST YEAR

Dustin Johnson shot a final-round 63 on his way to an 11-stroke victory over Harris English.  

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (10-1)

There are too many elite players on Tour to call one of them "the best," but at the moment it feels like Rahm has the edge in that department, as he has frequently been the favorite in recent big-time tournaments. A FedEx Cup -- the trophy itself -- would no doubt cap a great season for Rahm, but it won't be easy, as he'll have to get the better of all the game's bests. Working in his favor this week is the T3 he posted in his lone start on this course in the same event in 2019.

Jordan Spieth (16-1)

As great as Spieth's season has been, he has just one win to date, and that did not come in a top-tier tournament. However, he enters the playoffs second in the FedExCup Standings, which goes to show how consistent he has been. Spieth has also fared well on this track, recording a T6 here in 2019 and a top-20 in 2013.

Dustin Johnson (16-1)

I had to triple check the results from this event last year because I didn't remember DJ shooting a whopping 30-under-par and winning by 11 strokes, but that's exactly what he did. You have to remember, though, that DJ was on another planet at this time last year and was clearly the best player in the world. A year later he's still elite, but not anywhere near where he was 12 months ago. His win last year came on a different track, and when looking at his results on the current course -- a T24 and a missed cut -- his prospects don't look quite as good.

THE NEXT TIER

Bryson DeChambeau (25-1)

Did DeChambeau find something two weeks ago in the final WGC event of the season? Prior to that he looked a bit lost, and he was also recovering from COVID-19, so it was reasonable to think he would just ride out this season and start the next season fresh. However, it appears he had other ideas. Though he crumbled in the final round in Memphis, he managed three solid days prior to that. If he can find that form again this week, he could make another run.

Scottie Scheffler (30-1)

It feels like Scheffler has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour for a while, but he's only been a full-time member for just two years. He's earned over $7 million, but he has yet to find a win. That will change sometime soon if he keeps playing like he has, and perhaps this is where he breaks through. Scheffler put up four top-15s in his past five starts, and all of those came in solid fields.

Abraham Ancer (35-1)

It seems like we've run into this situation a few times this season. A high-performing golfer finally breaks through for his first PGA Tour win and we wait to see which direction he goes from there. For someone like Ancer, who had a lot of success before his first victory, it's hard to imagine he will get complacent, so it seems likely he will only continue to rise. We'll find out this week in what will be his first start since his win in Memphis.

LONG SHOTS

Adam Scott (40-1)

With his playoff hopes on the line, Scott came out and nearly won the Wyndham Invitational. He now sits 82nd in the FedExCup Standings, but with him still outside the top 70, his season is again on the line. Luckily for him, everything is lined up for another good showing. Scott's game is where it needs to be and he's clearly comfortable on this course. He won this event when it was played here in 2013 and finished T5 in the same spot in 2019.

Harris English (40-1)

There's too much firepower in the field and too much on the line down the road to think we'll see a surprise winner this week, so I wouldn't look too far down the odds chart when making your bets. English is about as far as I want to go, as his odds are long, but as we saw a couple weeks ago he's capable of hanging with the big boys. Now, can he close against a field like this? That remains to be seen, and that's why he's listed at this number and not one about half the size.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Jon Rahm - There are three weeks left in the season, so who you got? At this point, most OAD players have one, maybe two elite players left, and if you still have Rahm available you may want to save him for the TOUR Championship. If you have another golfer in mind for that event, though, you may as well use Rahm here. He is on the short list of guys that should make a serious run at the title, and that trek begins this week.

Moderately-owned Pick: Scottie Scheffler - If you are not in position to use an elite golfer this week, you could do worse than using someone like Scheffler. He's going to win sometime soon, and even if he doesn't, he's bound to pick up a nice check in New Jersey, as he's been playing at a high level for a long time.

Lightly-owned Pick: Patrick Reed - Reed is the defending champ on this course, but he's bound to be under the radar, as his play over the past few months has just been so-so. With that said, he still has elite upside, and he's obviously fond of this track, so if you need to make a late push and need a guy who won't be on too many other teams, Reed could be your guy.

Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - This spot is usually reserved for someone that I expect to play poorly, but that's not the case this time around. This is more of a reminder that this is not the course that DJ decimated last year. He's still DJ, but he's not playing out of his mind right now.

Last Week: Si Woo Kim - T2 - $389,440

Season Total: $7,507,272

This Week: Adam Scott - I really didn't see this pick coming a few weeks ago, but Scott looked really good in Connecticut and showed he can still come through when the pressure is on. His current form, combined with his track record on this course, makes him a great option. I also have to be mindful that I'll need to save at least one top-30 player for the TOUR Championship, and I'm running low on those guys right now.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jon Rahm ($12,000)
Middle Range: Scottie Scheffler ($10,700)
Lower Range: Erik van Rooyen ($7,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Brandt Snedeker - MC

Streak: 0

This week: Abraham Ancer - Unless he comes in with a hangover from his win two weeks ago, I don't see why Ancer would miss the cut. Ancer has been one of the most consistent players on Tour over the past few years, and I don't expect a win to negatively impact him. He finished runner-up here in 2019, which only strengthens his cause.