Weekly Preview: The Honda Classic

The Honda Classic

PGA National - Champion Course
Palm Beach Gardens, FL

The PGA Tour heads across the country for the latest edition of The Honda Classic.

Before we get to this week's event, a quick thought on this past week and elevated events in general. I'm not sure the PGA Tour knew what they were doing when they decided to go this route, but the results so far are better than they could have imagined. It's not just that the best players are showing up for these events, but they are also bringing their best game. Okay, so not all the elite players are on fire, but when you've got the best player in the world competing with Scottie Scheffler and Max Homa in consecutive weeks, that's definitely a win for the PGA Tour. The added bonus in all of this is the effect it's had on the fantasy world. I'm not sure about you, but I know that in my circle, a lot more attention has been paid to these early-year events than ever before. That of course is a result of the increase in prize money, which has suddenly turned the WM Open and the Genesis Invitational into must-see TV. It's not that these events had no interest before, but when you're in a OAD with a potential prize of over $3 million, it's a lot more interesting than when there is $1.8 million on the line. I was even sweating over Homa's final putt Sunday because it was the difference between $2.1 million and $1.7 million. The same putt a year ago might have been worth $150,000. This year it was $400,000, and that's a big deal to fantasy players. 

Okay, so what do we have in store this week? Well, we've got a thin field, but a lot of course history, so pretty much what we've come to expect during the weeks between elevated events.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 8:15 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Sepp Straka shot a final-round 66 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Shane Lowry.

FAVORITES

Sungjae Im (15-2)

The odds look very strange this week, as there are two players clear of the field followed by a large grouping between 24-1 and 28-1. Here's the problem with a player like Im at this price. Sure, he's probably the best player in the field, but he's not Rahm -- he can't be counted on to win any given week just because he's the best one out there. Im won this event in 2020 and scored another top-10 in 2021, but he's also had two poor starts here. He should be the favorite, but there's just no value here at this price -- which has dropped since I started writing.

Shane Lowry (15-1)

Lowry is an interesting play. As the only major winner anywhere near his prime, he certainly has a bit of an advantage on the field, and he also has some history on this course. Lowry finished solo second here this past year and has made the cut in each of his five starts. At his current number, there's enough value to make a play.

Min Woo Lee (25-1)

It's not often that I make a play based solely on the line movement, but I'm going to give it a try this week. Lee opened at 22-1 and then moved down to 28-1. Now, I know what you are thinking, why would I get behind a guy that no one apparently wants to bet on? In this case, Lee is not well known with the betting public, but the oddsmakers -- who generally know more than the public -- placed him in front of everyone except Lowry and Im. I don't know a lot about Lee, but I know he's pretty good, and he could be ready to make a splash. I must not be alone, as you can see his odds have already fallen back down.

THE NEXT TIER

Billy Horschel (28-1)

Horschel is part of a trio of players at this price. Unlike most weeks where this article has a clean break between favorites and mid-tier options, this week it's all a bit muddled, as there are simply too many options in this range to distinguish between the two groups. Horschel gets the nod because he's had some success here, finishing top-20 in four of his past six starts in this event.

Denny McCarthy (28-1)

If you've followed me at all over the past year, you know that I've had my eye on McCarthy as a guy I expect to break through at some point. He's been close before and it looks like he's getting close once again. The issue for McCarthy isn't his start or his finish, it's the rounds in between. Hopefully he can find that consistency soon and perhaps a win will follow. His overall track record here isn't great, but he played better in his last two starts at PGA National, one of which resulted in a T3 in 2021.

Adam Svensson (34-1)

Svensson got off to a great start this season when he picked up a win late in the fall. He struggled out of the gates in 2023, but he seems to have found his form again. Svensson posted a T9 against a very solid field this past week at the Genesis Invitational, which could be a sign that the hangover from the win is no more. He played well here this past year and took home a T9.

LONG SHOTS

Cam Davis (46-1)

Davis has missed his past three cuts. What's not to like? It's not optimal to jump on a guy who seems to be struggling, but there are a couple reasons to consider Davis. First. we're moving from California to Florida and there's no question it's a fresh start for many. Perhaps Davis was just struggling on the grass in California. Second, he's simply too good for odds like this. He's not trending the right way, but it just takes a few good shots to get back on track, and this price -- which has dropped -- is not something you'll often see on Davis in a field like this.

Lee Hodges (46-1)

Proving that a golfer can play well after missing many cuts, Hodges managed a T18 this past week after missing the weekend in four straight starts. Normally I'd write off Hodges as a one-week wonder, as he fizzled on the weekend at Riviera. But  he posted a T9 at this event this past year, so perhaps everything is lining up for him.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sungjae Im - Unlike the past two weeks, it's time again to consider whether or not it's worth using a certain player this time around. In the case of Im, you have to ask if you want to save him for an elevated event. Personally, I have him just outside of "elevated" range, so I would consider him here. I'm guessing that many OAD players will feel the same, and as such, he will be a popular play.

Moderately-owned Pick: Shane Lowry - Lowry and Im should be 1A and 1B, as there aren't a lot of good options outside of those two. The issue with Lowry is, are you planning on using him at a major? The Open Championship is always an option, so if you are considering him but still not sure, maybe look elsewhere. If not, then by all means use him.

Lightly-owned Pick: Adam Svensson - Svensson looks like a good play, but he's still so much of an unknown that I doubt many OAD players will use him. If you are looking to break out of the pack, he could be your guy. I've been stuck with the most popular picks the past two weeks and it's not fun, so if you're like me, you'll be looking for someone outside the top two options.

Buyer Beware: Matt Kuchar - Honestly, there really isn't anyone to put here this week, as with a field like this, it's hard to find guys that are overvalued. Still, Kuchar might fit the bill. He played well this past week -- which will put him on the radar of some --- and he won this event, but that was in 2002. The reason I'm skeptical of him is that he hasn't played here since 2011. Even though he won here in his first attempt, his overall track record is not great here, which is probably why he's stayed away so long.

This Week: Shane Lowry - Had I not used McCarthy this past fall, I might have gone with him here, but since he's gone, Lowry is the pick. Lowry started slowly with a missed cut at the WM Open, but he came back to life at the Genesis, where he finished T14. He was on his way to winning this event last year when the weather of all things threw him off his game. Unfortunately, he'll be a popular play, so I'll be stuck with the pack again.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Shane Lowry ($11,800)
Middle Range: Adam Svensson ($10,200)
Lower Range: Matthias Schwab ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Shane Lowry - I hesitate to use Lowry here, not because he's a bad pick, but because he's pretty valuable in this format during the majors, specifically the Open Championship. However, there aren't many guys I trust this week. McCarthy was also used in this format earlier, so Lowry is my best option. He's a perfect 5-for-5 here and he's looking to finish what he started this past year.

Previous Results