Weekly Preview: Sentry Tournament of Champions

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Plantation Course at Kapalua
Maui, HI

The PGA Tour heads to Hawaii for the first professional golf event in 2022.

Can you believe it? It's now the time of year when we in the colder states see the pros playing on lush green grass and kid ourselves into thinking it won't be long before we get to get on the course again. Though that is at least three months away, we can live vicariously through the PGA Tour players until it's our time. 

For the first tournament held in 2022, we've got a whopper of a field. Sure, this event is generally filled with top-tier talent, but this year it seems there is more on hand than usual. I guess that's a reflection of the previous season, as only those who won a tournament are allowed to participate in this event. 

We have plenty of course history, but it's tough to predict how things will go for most of these guys after a long layoff. A month isn't an extremely long break, but in pro golf that's an eternity, as the PGA Tour simply does not take much time off, even between seasons. 

I'm going to maintain the same format in this space that was used in years past, as it seems to be working for those who place bets and for those competing in various fantasy contests. 

Good luck this season. Let's have some fun and win some money!

LAST YEAR

Harris English shot a final-round 69 on his way to a playoff victory over Joaquin Niemann.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (9-1)

The new year starts a lot like the last one ended, with Rahm having the shortest odds on the board. I think we should get used to this, as not only is Rahm possibly the best golfer in the world, he's also a favorite among the betting public, which is a major factor when generating the numbers. Rahm has yet to win this event, but he has played well in his four starts here, recording a top-10 each time out. There's no reason to think he won't play well this week, but after the long layoff, this number doesn't provide a lot of value.

Justin Thomas (9-1)

Thomas opened as the third choice on the betting board, but enough money has already been thrown his way that he now slots in alongside Rahm -- or above him on some websites. There seems to be a lot of attention on Thomas this year, perhaps because a bounceback campaign seems pretty likely. That's not to say he is coming off a poor season, but after his win at THE PLAYERS, Thomas failed to notch even one top-10 for five months. Thomas is a two-time winner here, which is certainly influencing the public. Although I'd love a double-digit number on the left side, you could still make a play here.

Bryson DeChambeau (10-1)

Like Thomas, DeChambeau hit a bit of a rough patch after THE PLAYERS, one that lasted nearly five months. He turned things around in the Playoffs, though, and looks ready to return to top form. DeChambeau has played this event three times and twice finished inside the top 10, but he has not cracked the top 5. He's capable of winning any time he tees it up, but at this number, I think there are better options available.

THE NEXT TIER

Collin Morikawa (12-1)

Morikawa continues to leap toward the top of the golfing world, but the next step might be the most difficult. Morikawa wasted no time becoming a winner on the PGA Tour, and he's steadily continued his rise with WGC and major wins. The next step is to become the best in the world, and there's plenty of reason to believe he can do that. Will that happen this year, though? A win this week would be a good start. Morikawa has played here twice, finishing T7 both times.

Sam Burns (20-1)

Speaking of guys taking the next step, Burns is on a similar path as Morikawa, but a year behind. Like Morikawa, Burns will have to start winning more-prestigious events to be considered elite by year's end. Burns' rise has happened rapidly, and unlike Morikawa, he didn't have the same hype, so there's still a bit of skepticism surrounding Burns. This will be Burns' first trip here, so a win would go a long way toward solidifying his standing as one of the top players on Tour.

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

It has been four years since Spieth teed it up here, and that's because he hadn't won a PGA Tour event in a while. Now that he's back to looking like his old self, we can again consider making plays on him in stronger fields. Spieth won this event in 2016 and has not finished outside the top 10 in four starts here.

LONG SHOTS

Harris English (40-1)

Take one look at the list of winners here over the past decade and you'll see it's not often that a winner sprouts out of nowhere, so you don't want to go too far down the line. English is obviously not out of consideration, as he won this event in 2021. English did not fare well during the fall portion of the schedule, but he played better in the unofficial events that closed the year, so perhaps he's ready to threaten the top of the leaderboard again.

Cameron Champ (80-1)

Is Champ a superstar in the making, or not? This is already his fourth start in this event, yet there doesn't seem to be as much excitement around Champ as there was around guys like JT and Spieth when they were coming up. Champ obviously needs to improve his game on the bigger stages, but at normal Tour stops, he has fared pretty well. This isn't exactly a normal stop, but it's pretty close, and although he hasn't fared that well here in his three starts, he has the talent to stand out any given week.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Xander Schauffele - It's always tough to gauge the public in this event, as most OAD players refuse to burn a star one week into the new year. You still want to get off to a good start, though, so you land on someone like Schauffele, who has a lot of value down the road but not quite as much as some of his major-winning counterparts.

Moderately-owned Pick: Harris English - I'm basing this entire section on the notion that most OAD players will stay away from the elite players. If that's the case, players like English will be quite popular. He can obviously win, and you won't feel too bad if he doesn't.

Lightly-owned Pick: Erik van Rooyen - I'm not necessarily endorsing this method, but if you are stuck and you definitely want to avoid using a player ranked at or near the top in the OWGR, remember that everyone gets paid on Sunday. That's right, you can guarantee a paycheck from anyone in the field. So, why not use someone you won't be compelled to use down the road yet has at least a slim chance to play well in Hawaii? van Rooyen has potential, but he's far too inconsistent to worry about saving for a later date. If you want to take a shot at a quality finish while saving all the players you want to use later in the season, van Rooyen might be your guy.

Buyer Beware: Phil Mickelson - This seems obvious, right? Well, for those using the strategy I just mentioned, some might be thinking about using Mickelson this week, as there's little upside with him down the road. I would caution against that, though, as it has been 20 years since he played this event, and in his two previous starts on this course he finished T28 and T22 in roughly 30-player fields.

Last Week: Scottie Scheffler - T57 - $16,416

Season Total: $2,509,271

This Week: Patrick Reed - This event always throws me for a loop as I'm not one to burn an elite player early yet don't want to get off to a slow start. With that in mind, I'm going to shoot down the middle and use Reed, who is very familiar with this event, having played it seven times and winning it once. He carries some value later in the campaign, but not so much that I'll worry about not having him.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Justin Thomas $11,900
Middle Range: Jordan Spieth $10,900
Lower Range: Cameron Champ $8,900

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Scottie Scheffler - T57

Streak: 6

This Week: N/A